Should the Red Sox Extend Alex Verdugo?

Spring training is underway and expectations for the 2023 Boston Red Sox are all over the map. Headlines around the team have been swirling all offseason and most recently, it’s been regarding Alex Verdugo. According to the Boston Herald’s Gabrielle Star, Verdugo approached the Red Sox about an extension and expressed his desire to stay in Boston long-term. Although recent rumors are that talks haven’t actually begun, the question is, should the Red Sox extend Alex Verdugo? Also, if they do, what type of contract is fair?

After what was a shaky 2022 season for Alex Verdugo, he is looking to bounce back in a big way in 2023. The start of last season was rough for the Red Sox outfielder. According to Verdugo’s brother, he played the start of last season with a broken toe, which could explain his performance over the first two months of the season.

As you can see, Verdugo turned things around and finished with a solid final four months of the year. By the end of the 2022 season, he finished with a .280 BA, .328 OBP, 11 HR, and 74 RBI stat line.

Inside a Possible Extension

When Alex Verdugo came to Boston in 2020, he was greeted with excitement, but certainly some bitterness as well. He was part of the return that sent star OF Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers. At the time, Verdugo was a young player with less than a full year of major league at-bats. Now three years later, he has created a presence off the field but hasn’t lived up to the hype on the field.

Verdugo hits for a good average, but with underwhelming power and average defensive output since becoming a Red Sox, Comparable Contracts

One of the best ways to measure a player’s market value is to compare them to previous contracts around the MLB. Let’s take a look at a few from the past two off-seasons.

1. Andrew Benintendi – 5 years, $75 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2022 – 521 PA, .304 BA, .373 OBP, 5 HR, 51 RBI
2. Brandon Nimmo – 8 years, $162 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2022 – 673 PA .274 BA, .367 OBP, 16 HR, 64 RBI
3. Michael Brantley – 1 year, $12 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2022 – 277 PA, .288 BA, .370 OBP, 5 HR, 26 RBI
4. Michael Conforto – 2 years, $36 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2021 – 479 PA, .232 BA, .344 OBP, 14 HR, 55 RBI
5. Chris Taylor – 4 years, $60 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2021 – 582 PA, .254 BA, .344 OBP, 20 HR, 73 RBI
6. Mark Canha – 2 years, $26.5 million
   • Stat line before contract: 2021 – 542 PA, .266 BA, .367 OBP, 13 HR, 61 RBI

A lot more than those stat lines go into each player. Some hit for a better average, or more power than Verdugo. Some are better defensively or on the base paths. Nevertheless, they are all in the same ballpark of what type of player they are.

Mock Extension Proposal

It’s easy to say that he has underperformed and the Red Sox should move on. That being said, the grass certainly isn’t always greener on the other side. Verdugo is a solid player and if you believe in the idea that he still has a bit of untapped potential, an extension is a no-brainer. Andrew Benintendi’s deal this past offseason with the White Sox is probably the closest comparable contract to look at. Ideally, I would not want to commit to five years. Considering the framework of deals we’ve seen from Chaim Bloom, I have come up with a mock extension proposal for Alex Verdugo.

• 3 years, $38.25 million (starts in 2024) + 2 year mutual option
• Before the 2026 season, the Red Sox decide whether to pick up a 2-year, 34.5 million option for 2027 & 2028
• If the Red Sox choose not to pick up the option, they will owe Verdugo a 3 million dollar buyout at the end of the 2026 season OR Verdugo can opt into a 1-year, 12 million deal for the 2027 season.
• Which leaves three possible outcomes to the overall deal
  • 3 years, 41.25 million
  • 4. years, 50.25 million
  • 5 years, 72.75 million

Win-Win Contract

It should be noted that Verdugo has one more year of arbitration after 2023. This contract would start in 2024 and eliminate that. For this season, the Red Sox and Verdugo agreed to a 6.3 million dollar deal, which would make his 2024 arbitration salary likely less than the 12.75 million he’d receive in the new contract extension. If I was Verdugo, I’d prefer more security long-term but also view this as a fair deal.

For the Red Sox, they have a chance to lock in a fan favorite and a corner outfield spot for the foreseeable future. It’s fair to prefer the Red Sox wait until next offseason to discuss an extension for Verdugo. Though that comes with the same type of risk of extending Verdugo right now. What if he has a breakout season? All of a sudden, the cost to keep him around goes up and you’re left with a missed opportunity to lock him in at a reasonable rate.

It is unknown what Verdugo will be asking for in an extension, but given his play and the comparable contracts, I believe his market value sits in the 13-16 million per year range. Verdugo brings an upbeat personality to the locker room and a quality bat to the plate. Hopefully, we are hearing breaking news in the near future about Verdugo sticking around for the long haul.

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