The Red Sox Best Starting Five

The 2023 Boston Red Sox season has been an adventure, to say the least. It started with a 2-4 record through six games and Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy tried claiming victory on his Red Sox predictions one game into the season. Now, standing at 26-22, the Red Sox have been a pleasant surprise to most. The emergence of Jarren Duran, Josh Winckowski, and a few others have been crucial boosts to the major league roster. Though they currently sit in fourth place in the brutal AL East, the Red Sox are playing solid baseball and have the ninth-best record in the MLB.

As we approach June, we are already through a quarter of the MLB season. The Red Sox lineup has been good, and the bullpen has certainly improved from last year. The biggest question that remains is finding the best consistent five starters. The good news for the Red Sox is that they aren’t short of options and a few pitchers have started to prove their worthiness. So what should the starting rotation look like? Let’s jump right in.

The Best Five

1. LHP Chris Sale

After being constantly injured the past two seasons, Chris Sale set his sights on regaining the trust of the team and getting back to the old Chris Sale. After a bumpy start to the season, Sale has been showing signs that he can once again be the ace of the Boston Red Sox.

Over his last six starts:

• 38.1 IP
• 3.05 ERA
• 2.93 FIP
• 10.1 K/9
• 0.7 BB/9
• 0.89 WHIP

On top of that, he’s been clocked hitting up to 99 MPH again. He is in the 89 percentile in chase rate and has his best K% since 2018 as well.

2. RHP Brayan Bello

The adventure that is the major leagues has been just that for Brayan Bello… an adventure. He was fast-tracked to the majors last season due to numerous injuries on the MLB roster and showed enough to stick around despite mixed results.

Heading into 2023, most people viewed Bello as the future of the rotation. Early into spring training, Bello had a minor arm injury that caused the Red Sox to delay his season debut. Now, after settling into the season, Bello is starting to show what he can truly be. Over his last four starts, Bello is 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 23 strikeouts. It should be assumed that Bello will still have some ups and downs as he grows as a pitcher, but with still under 100 IP in the majors, it’s clear that the future is bright for the young Red Sox right-hander.

Brayan Bello absolutely disgusting pic.twitter.com/eKXWRzP1nx

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) May 18, 2023

3. RHP Garrett Whitlock

When the Red Sox first acquired Garrett Whitlock, he was coming off Tommy John surgery and the plan was to use him as a reliever, which is what happened for the majority of 2021 and 2022.

Now in 2023, the Red Sox made it clear from day one of spring training, that Whitlock would be used as a starter. Coming off off-season surgery, Whitlock was limited during spring training and missed the first couple of weeks of the season. He then returned to the rotation and struggled to find his comfort over three starts before landing back on the IL. Now as we approach June, Whitlock is expected back this Saturday, May 27th.

There is still a reasonable argument to be made that the best version of Garrett Whitlock is coming out of the bullpen. That being said, he deserves a chance to get back into the rotation. If Whitlock can even come close to what he did as a reliever, he would be a major piece for the Red Sox rotation.

4. LHP James Paxton

In December of 2021, the Red Sox surprised many by giving James Paxton a 1-year, $10 million deal with a club option for the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Paxton was recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t expected to be back until late into the 2022 season. Unfortunately for everyone involved, Paxton got injured again during his rehab and missed the entire 2022 season.

Facing a difficult decision, the Red Sox declined the 2-year, $26 million club option. Though as part of the contract, Paxton reserved the right to agree to a 1-year, $4 million agreement to stay in Boston, and that’s what he did.

After experiencing yet another injury in spring training, Paxton finally just recently made his Red Sox debut. Over his first two starts, he has pitched 11 innings and allowed three earned runs while striking out 14 batters. For as long as Paxton is healthy, he deserves and will be a starter for the Red Sox. He’s an experienced left-hander who has shown so far that he still has what it takes to be a quality big-league starter.

All 9 of James Paxton’s strikeouts tonight.

Electric stuff from start to finish.

pic.twitter.com/zC0uhtfGyi

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) May 13, 2023

5. RHP Kutter Crawford

When it comes to this final spot, there are plenty of options and I don’t think there is an obvious answer. My decision to go with Kutter Crawford is fueled by the long-term stability of the rotation. I don’t believe Crawford will ever be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but if he can be given a full opportunity as a starter, I see the upside to be a consistent option for the Red Sox.

For the 2023 season, Crawford has shown excellent control, ranking in the 97 percentile in walk rate. Batters are swinging and missing at a very high rate. Advanced statistics suggest he has the stuff to be a quality starter. Plus as mentioned, he’s under team control through 2028 so finding him a potential permanent role is ideal.

On the Outside Looking In

RHP Corey Kluber

In January, the Red Sox signed veteran Corey Kluber to a 1-year, $8 million contract. Though no one expected the Corey Kluber that we saw during his prime, he has still been a major disappointment so far this season.

What to do with Kluber is a tough decision. Alex Cora has already said he will make his next start but I think the best option is to send him to the IL for now. At this moment, I don’t think releasing him is logical. It is way too early into that season to dump a veteran starter. Send Kluber to the IL and figure it out in a few weeks.

RHP Nick Pivetta

The Red Sox already decided to move Nick Pivetta to the bullpen and that’s where he should stay. He has been wildly inconsistent and is simply undeserving to stay in the rotation. The best option is to keep him as a long reliever and have him available to make a spot start if needed.

RHP Tanner Houck

This is probably the toughest decision of them all. Tanner Houck came into the majors as a starter but has struggled tremendously to go deep into games. For the majority of the 2022 season, Houck was used as a reliever before suffering a season-ending injury.

When used as a reliever in 2022, Houck posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with an 8.9 SO/9 rate over 43.1 innings pitched. It’s very clear, he was phenomenal as a reliever. Now in 2023, Houck has been a full-time starter and hasn’t been able to go deep into games. He has been dominant his first time through the order, holding opposing batters to a .116 batting average. Though during the second round through the order, opponents have had a .356 BA.

I was on board with giving Houck a chance as a starter to begin the year. That being said, it’s clear that the best version of Tanner Houck is in the bullpen. He may not like the move, but it’s the best for him and the team for at least the short term. If Tanner Houck can get back to 2022 form as a reliever, the Red Sox would be adding another tremendous weapon in the bullpen.

Conclusion

The top four of the rotation are clear at this point. Sale, Bello, Whitlock, and Paxton should be locked into the rotation for the foreseeable future. In terms of the final spot, I’d understand if anyone wanted to go with Pivetta, Houck or even sticking with Kluber. Though in the end, I believe Crawford deserves a shot to find a permanent role for the Boston Red Sox.

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