Going into the season, the New York Mets were expected to be one of the best teams in the league. They had just come off a 101-win season. They had a solid lineup with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. A star-studded rotation led by two future Hall of Famers in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Not to mention the highest payroll in North American sports history, with an owner who is willing to do whatever it takes to win, in Steve Cohen. It seemed like good times were ahead in Queens. At the very least they were a lock to make it to the postseason.
However, things have not gone as planned, and the Mets are six games below .500. They currently sit 13.5 games behind the Braves for first, and 6.5 out of the third wild card spot. The Mets are closer to the worst record in the National League than a playoff spot. Now because things have gone so badly for the Mets, there is speculation that they will be sellers at the deadline. However, the Mets are in no position to sell at this year’s deadline.
What the Mets Could Sell?
The biggest reason the Mets can’t be sellers at the deadline is that they have nothing of value to trade. When teams sell at the deadline, their goal is to get prospects with potential so they can be good in a couple of years. However, the problem for the Mets is, the Mets don’t have players that can net them that type of return.
Looking over the Mets roster there isn’t one player that’s going to generate a lot of interest around the deadline. Sure guys like Alonso and Jeff McNeil could net a good return. However Alonso is the face of the franchise and won’t be moved, and McNeil just signed a long-term extension. Plus veterans like Verlander, Scherzer, and Starling Marte, are impossible to move because of their contracts.
There are only two players the Mets can realistically trade at the deadline, those being David Robertson and Tommy Pham. Without question, Robertson has been the best pitcher in the Mets bullpen. In 31.1 innings, he has a 1.72 ERA, 40 strikeouts, 10 saves, and a 1.021 WHIP. While Pham has been the hottest hitter in the Mets lineup. In the past 15 games, he has a slash line of .321/.361/.643 with an OPS of 1.004, four home runs, and 14 RBIs. Now these are the types of players that are going to generate interest around the deadline. Both of them are on expiring contracts. Both of them are having good seasons, and can really help a team coming down the stretch.
Why Being Sellers Would Be a Mistake
However, even though there are going to be teams interested in them, that doesn’t mean they’re going to get a good package for them. There are a ton of different factors that go into determining a player’s value. A player’s performance is only a part of it. There are other things like how many of that position is also up to be traded. And how much longer a player has left on their contract.
In the case of Robertson, there will be a ton of other relievers on the trade market come the deadline. Every contending team is looking to upgrade the bullpen, and every struggling team has at least one reliever of value. When that stuff is factored in the amount of value Robertson has decreases. At best the Mets could get one maybe two prospects at the low end of a team’s top 30 prospect list.
In Pham’s case, what works against him is how teams look at him. They don’t see Pham as a player who can transform a lineup. He’s not a guy that’s going to completely upgrade a team’s offense. They see him as a fourth outfielder, bat off the bench type of a player. That type of player doesn’t net a huge return. The Mets are essentially going to get the prospect equivalent of a lottery ticket. A young player who isn’t on any team’s radar but is so young that he could become something.
Now these are both extremely underwhelming packages for these players. It’s not smart to sell players off just for the sake of selling them off. You should only be a seller if it means your team will be better in the long term. Trading Robertson and Pham won’t change the Mets’ future at all. The smart move for the Mets would be to stay pat and look toward next season.
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