2024’s Hall of Fame voting period has officially begun. Members of The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) have begun to deliberate and cast their votes, marking the start of the voting period. The MLB will announce this year’s class on January 23rd, preceding the induction ceremony in July. A player must receive 75 percent of the vote to earn induction, or at least five percent to stay on next year’s ballot. Players are eligible to remain on the ballot for a maximum of ten years, so time is of the essence for some players on this year’s ballot. Twenty-six names will appear on the 2024 MLB Hall of Fame ballot, including twelve first-timers.
Players are inducted via the 75 percent threshold almost every year, while players miss the five percent or have their ten years run out every year without fail. The names on this year’s ballot are all exceptional figures in MLB’s illustrious history, but they can still be divided into a clear hierarchy based on their likelihood of getting in this year, or any future year. Some names should probably just be happy to be included, while others are practically locks to see their faces in Cooperstown. A few have a much more complicated case.
Congratulations on Making It This Far, but Don’t Get Too Comfortable
All of these players had great careers, but not quite Hall of Fame-worthy. The 2024 MLB Hall of Fame ballot should be their first and last.
José Bautista (First Appearance)
José Bautista was one of the most exciting players in the game from 2010-2015, making six All-Star Games and finishing top ten in MVP voting four times. He did not experience his breakout season until age 29 though, making his volume insufficient for induction into the Hall of Fame.
Victor Martinez (First Appearance)
Victor Martinez was a very good hitter for a very long time. He came in second in MVP voting in his age-35 season, posting a slash line of .335/.409/.974 over 151 games. His career 118 OPS+ to go along with over 1,100 RBI would put him in the HOF conversation if he was strictly a catcher, but he moved to a 1B/DH hybrid too early in his career for serious consideration.
James Shields (First Appearance)
James Shields was the definition of a workhorse, surpassing 200 IP every season from 2007-2015. He led the league in innings pitched over this timeframe, and was good in doing so; he went 121-89 with an ERA of 3.67, good for an ERA+ of 111 (average is 100). While he was certainly valuable, he was never elite. His 30.7 WAR would be the lowest of any current member of the Hall of Fame, and he only received Cy Young votes twice.
José Reyes (First Appearance)
If this vote was instead for the Hall of Excitement, José Reyes would be a unanimous selection. His 78 stolen bases in 2007 continue to be the most of the 21st century, even with the larger bases we saw in 2023. He stole a jaw-dropping 258 bags from 2005-2008. Unfortunately, Reyes’ prime was just not long or dominant enough. 24 of his career 37.1 WAR came in six of his 16 seasons.
Brandon Phillips (First Appearance)
Brandon Phillips may be the owner of two of the best nicknames in sports, going by Dat Dude and B-Peezy. He earned these nicknames by being one of the best players on the Cincinnati Reds from 2006-2016, winning four Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. His defense was superb, but not good enough for long enough to carry his below-average OPS+ of 95.
Adrián González (First Appearance)
Also known as El Titan, Adrián González was always a feared hitter at the plate. From 2006-2015, he hit .292/.366/.866 and averaged 28 home runs and 103 RBI. While that is a long period to be that good, he never really crossed the line of being elite for very long. Over the same ten seasons, he only made five All-Star Games, won the Silver Slugger award twice, and finished top ten in MVP voting three times. Those are excellent numbers that made up a great career, but they are not quite Hall of Fame caliber.
Bartolo Colon (First Appearance)
Bartolo Colon did a lot of things well in his career but was never really elite. He did win one Cy Young Award but was an All-Star just four times. His career numbers (46.2 WAR, 2535 Ks, 247 wins) are quite impressive and show his longevity, but he never had a truly dominant stretch at any point of his career. His PED suspension in 2012 should be the final knock against him lasting past one ballot.
The Hall of Very Good
These players could stick around on the ballot for a bit longer but probably do not have the resume to ever make the Hall of Fame.
Mark Buehrle (Fourth Appearance, 10.8 percent in 2023)
Mark Buehrle would fit perfectly in today’s MLB. He was one of the fastest workers during his career, so he would surely love the pitch clock. In addition to his efficiency, Buehrle was also quite a good pitcher. He was a four-time All-Star who finished top ten in innings pitched seven times during his sixteen-year career. What sinks his case is only one top-five Cy Young Award finish. He was very good for a long time, but never quite elite.
Torii Hunter (Fourth Appearance, 6.9 percent in 2023)
Known for highlight plays in center field, Torii Hunter made defense look fun. Known for scaling the center field wall at the Metrodome, Hunter won nine Gold Glove Awards for his acrobatics in the outfield. He averaged a solid 24 home runs and 88 RBI from 2001-2011 too, but these numbers just are not enough for Cooperstown. This could be Hunter’s last cameo on the Hall of Fame ballot, as he dropped to just 6.9 percent a season ago.
Matt Holliday (First Appearance)
One of the most respected hitters in the MLB during his prime, Matt Holliday hit an impressive .308 from 2006 to 2015, earning seven All-Star nods and four Silver Slugger awards. Nevertheless, he earned only one top-three MVP finish and did not gain a reputation for stellar fielding. He makes the Hall of Very Good due to his long and consistent prime, but he did not put up numbers gaudy enough to make the Hall of Fame.
David Wright (First Appearance)
The case of David Wright is a sad one. He was well on his way to Cooperstown through his age 30 season, posting 46.5 WAR behind a .301/.382/.888 triple slash, 222 home runs, 876 RBI, and 7 All-Star nods. His body would betray him though, as Wright only appeared in another 211 games after that. His prime was easily Hall of Fame worthy, but he unfortunately was not able to finish the job, through no fault of his own.
Francisco Rodríguez (Second Appearance, 10.8 percent in 2023.
Francisco Rodríguez, better known as K-Rod, had an electric prime. From 2005-2009, he racked up 229 saves, including an MLB record 62 in 2008. His 11.2 K/9 over the same span was equally impressive, especially considering the timeframe he did it in. While he was still good for the remaining 12 seasons of his career, he was unable to really replicate his outstanding prime. Given relief pitchers have historically also had a rough time gaining induction into the Hall (more on that later), K-Rod should have a tough time breaking through,
Jimmy Rollins (Third Appearance, 12.9 percent in 2023)
Jimmy Rollins was a model for durability and availability in the 2000’s. Despite rest days and injured list stints going up around the league, J-Roll played in over 150 games 10 times between 2001-2013. This run was highlighted by his 2007 season where he put up 6.1 WAR while playing in all 162 games, also being awarded NL MVP. His career as a whole isn’t quite Hall of Fame quality, however, posting a WAR of just 47.6, under 1,000 career RBI, and only four Gold Glove Awards.
Omar Vizquel (Seventh Appearance, 19.5 percent in 2023)
Based on defense alone, Omar Vizquel would be a Hall of Famer. He won eleven Gold Gloves, including nine in a row from 1993 to 2001. His game at the plate was severely lacking though, with Vizquel posting an OPS+ over 100 just twice in his extensive 24-year career. His 45.6 career WAR and 26.8 seven-year peak WAR are severely lacking as well, with the averages for a shortstop being 67.7 and 43.2, respectively. Off-the-field issues have seen his vote share drop from 52.6 percent in 2020 to 19.5 percent a year ago, likely ending any hope he had for admittance into the Hall.
Hall of Fame Talents Tainted by Scandal
Players who would be clear Hall of Famers if not for scandals clouding their careers.
Álex Rodriguez (Third Appearance, 35.7 percent in 2023)
Álex Rodriguez’s dominance on the baseball field is impossible to dispute. His all-time rankings firmly place him as one of the greatest to ever play the game; fourth in RBI, fifth in home runs, seventh in total bases, eighth in runs scored, 16th in WAR, 23rd in hits, 28th in slugging percentage, and 42nd in OPS are some of his highlights. He’s received MVP votes an astounding 15 times, taking home the award three times, to go along with 14 All-Star nods, 10 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves, and a World Series title. He did receive a one-year suspension for PED use in 2014, which tarnished his otherwise flawless resume. Given past precedent with guys like Barry Bonds and Rodger Clemens, it’s unlikely A-Rod will be inducted anytime soon.
Manny Ramírez (Eighth Appearance, 33.2 percent in 2023)
Manny Ramírez may not have reached the otherwordly heights of Rodriguez, but his career was still one to remember. His .996 career OPS ranks 11th all-time, between Rogers Hornsby and Mike Trout. He’s surpassed common Hall of Fame thresholds of 500 home runs (555) and 1,600 RBI (1,831), placing him in the top 20 all-time for both. Ramírez is also one of the league’s best postseason hitters of all time, finishing with a .937 OPS and 29 home runs over 111 games en route to two rings and one World Series MVP. Much like A-Rod, Manny has been suspended for PED use. He has three years left to be the first player to serve a PED suspension to be inducted into Cooperstown.
Carlos Beltrán (Second Appearance, 46.5 percent in 2023)
Carlos Beltrán isn’t as much of a slam-dunk candidate as Ramírez or Rodriguez, but he still is quite deserving. His 70.1 WAR is eighth all-time for a primary center fielder. He has a 44.4 peak seven-year WAR, while the average HOF center fielder has 44.7 The most similar batters to him according to Baseball Reference’s similarity score are Andre Dawson, Billy Williams, and Al Kaline; three Hall of Famers. He played with an elite combination of power and speed, having eight seasons of over twenty bag swipes and twenty dingers. As one of the primary faces of the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal, Beltrán may have a challenging time getting in. He is the first player from this team eligible, so there’s no precedent to go off of.
Borderline Hall of Famers
All of these guys have a solid case for Cooperstown but are far from sure things. The 2024 MLB Hall of Fame ballot final numbers will be telling for their future prospects of induction.
Bobby Abreu (Fifth Appearance, 15.4 percent in 2023)
Bobby Abreu‘s numbers might not jump off the page, but as analytics and modern player evaluation continue to entrench themselves in the mainstream, Abreu’s candidacy is helped quite a bit. His career on-base percentage of .395 is top 100 all-time, while he also is top 20 in walks. He surpassed a .400 OBP eight times between 1998-2006, while amassing 43.7 WAR in the same period. He jumped from 8.6 percent of the vote in 2022 to 15.4 percent in 2023, so what happens this year will be critical in seeing if Abreu has a chance of eventually reaching 75 percent.
Joe Mauer (First Appearance)
Joe Mauer might not have the counting stats necessary to be a first-ballot inductee, but his prime should get him over the hump eventually. He dealt with injuries that cut his prime a bit short, but there’s no denying how elite Mauer was before his health woes. From 2004-2013, Mauer won five Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP award. His triple slash of .323/.405/.873 was good enough for a 135 OPS+, a phenomenal number for any player, let alone a catcher. 44.6 of his career 55.2 WAR was compiled in years he was catching, which should be enough to earn him enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Some voters may be hesitant due to playing in just 1,858 career games, but he should get in with time.
Andruw Jones (Seventh Appearance, 58.1 percent in 2023)
In his prime, Andruw Jones may have been the greatest fielder in MLB history. He’s second all-time in total zone runs, 22nd in defensive WAR, and was awarded ten Gold Glove awards. He was no slouch at the plate either, crushing 434 home runs and finishing with a career OPS+ of 111. He’s been locked out of the Hall thus far due to the lack of longevity (he surpassed 100 games played in a season only twice after his 30th birthday) and his offensive numbers not being that close to elite territory. Still, it is a bit surprising to see one of the sport’s greatest-ever defenders without a plaque in the Hall of Fame.
Andy Pettitte (Sixth Appearance, 17 percent in 2023)
Andy Pettitte was a great regular-season pitcher, winning 256 games to the tune of a 3.85 ERA, 60.2 WAR, and five top ten Cy Young Award finishes. What elevates his case is his postseason numbers. He started an MLB record 44 games, throwing 272.2 innings of 3.81 ERA ball. He was a key cog in five World Series rotations and a part of some of the biggest moments in MLB history. This is what would punch his ticket to Cooperstown.
Gary Sheffield (Final ballot, 55 percent in 2023)
Gary Sheffield technically could be in the PED category, but his voting numbers indicate otherwise. The BBWAA harshly punished guys like Bonds, Clemens, Rodriguez, and Ramírez for the PED allegations, but guys like David Ortiz have largely been excused. Sheffield seems to be closer to the second category given his voting numbers over the past decade, but it’s hard to say for certain how much his allegations have impacted his candidacy. He’s never been suspended for PED use but has admitted to unknowingly using them after he was named as a BALCO client. The only players with over 500 career home runs or 1,600 career RBI to not be inducted into Cooperstown are PED users, and Sheffield has surpassed both these benchmarks. He has one more year on the ballot.
Chase Utley (First Appearance)
Chase Utley may never have had the “feel” of a Hall of Famer during his career, but some statistics say he clearly is one. He has a 64.5 career WAR, 49.3 seven-year peak WAR, and a JAWS of 56.9. JAWS is a stat that tries to balance career war and peak war to find a balance between elite peaks and extreme longevity. The average Hall of Fame second basemen has averages of 69.6, 44.4, and 57 of the three aforementioned stats, respectively. This places Utley firmly in the Hall of Fame conversation, but his career 117 OPS+, 259 home runs, and 1,025 RBI aren’t exactly Hall of Fame numbers. Jeff Kent missing out on the Hall might spell doom for Utley.
Billy Wagner (Ninth Appearance, 68.1 percent in 2023)
Billy Wagner was one of the most elite relievers in baseball during his 16-year career. He was a seven-time All-Star, and ranks sixth on the all-time saves leaderboard. Relief pitchers have historically had an extremely difficult time earning a spot in the Hall though, as only three of the five guys in front of him on the saves leaderboard have been inducted, and only eight relievers in general. Nevertheless, there has been a strong push in recent years to secure his induction, mirroring the increased appreciation for the role of relief pitchers. His vote percentage has jumped from 10.5 percent to 68.1 percent over the last seven years, indicating he should get in soon. Getting those last few holdouts may be a challenge, though,
Welcome to Cooperstown
These players are all but guaranteed to gain induction into the Hall of Fame this year.
Adrián Beltré (First Appearance)
There is simply no argument against the candidacy of Adrián Beltré. His 93.5 career WAR places him at third all-time for players who primarily played third base. He was one of the greatest defensive third basemen of all time, winning five Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves. His offensive prowess should not be underestimated either; Beltré recorded 477 home runs, 1,707 RBI, and a 116 OPS+. He somehow got stronger as his career continued, with a 130 OPS+ from his age 31-39 seasons. Beltré is a lock to enter the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.
Todd Helton (Sixth Appearance, 72.2 percent in 2023)
Debates surrounding Todd Helton’s resume have persisted since his initial ballot appearance in 2019, but it seems to be trending positively. After earning just 16.5 percent of the vote in his first year, the lifelong Colorado Rockie went all the way up to 72.2 percent a year ago. His .953 OPS and three Gold Glove awards over an extensive 17-year career show his value on both sides of the ball, but playing his home games at Coors Field has given some voters pause. His 61.8 career WAR and 46.6 peak seven-year WAR match up favorably with the averages of Hall of Fame first basemen (65, 41.8 averages), and his defensive ability makes up for any offensive boost gained at Coors. Helton should join the greats of Cooperstown, making the 2024 MLB Hall of Fame ballot his last.
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