The Uncertainty That Surrounds Brandon Woodruff

It’s not every offseason where a team doesn’t offer a contract to one of the best homegrown pitchers in franchise history. However, due to the projected money he’s owed and a shoulder injury that keeps him out for at least most of 2024; this is exactly what the Brewers did. At the deadline to tender contracts, they non-tendered Brandon Woodruff making him a free agent. While not an easy decision for the Brewers to make, it was the right one. This now puts Woodruff in a precarious position on the open market. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Brandon Woodruff in 2024 and beyond.

A Solid Seven Seasons In Milwaukee

For seven years, Brandon Woodruff was one of the pitchers at the top of the rotation next to Corbin Burnes. In his career, the two-time all-star was 46-26 with an ERA of 3.10 and 788 strikeouts. Woodruff also authored one of the most iconic moments in Brewer’s postseason history. He hit a game-tying home run off Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in game one of the 2018 NLCS. Woodruff also proved to be an effective postseason pitcher. He only has an ERA of 3.18 in the playoffs with 40 strikeouts to just four walks.

Woodruff Had An Injury Riddled 2023 Season

Woodruff had an injury-plagued year in 2023. After just two starts, Woodruff was placed on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder injury. This kept him out for four months of the season. After spending most of the season on the injured list, “Big Woo” would finally make his return in August. Upon his return, Woodruff looked like his pre-injury self. During August and September, Woodruff would go 4-1 with an ERA of 2.61. At one point in September, Woodruff threw 17 straight scoreless innings which included his first career complete game. Despite all his success, Woodruff’s shoulder problems would resurface at the worst possible time.

Woodruff would be forced to miss his final start due to more shoulder problems. This same issue would also prevent him from pitching in the postseason. It would later be announced that Woodruff would need to have shoulder surgery. This forces him to miss most of the 2024 season if not all of it. Woodruff not being able to pitch for at least most of 2024 complicated the offseason plans for the Brewers.

The Brewers Made The Right Decision

Last season, Brandon Woodruff made $10.8 million. He was eligible for one more year of arbitration before officially becoming a free agent in 2025. Woodruff was projected to make a salary of over $12 million. With Woodruff projected to make more, entering free agency in a year, possibly not pitching next year, and the Brewers heading toward a rebuild; Milwaukee made the smart move to non-tender him.

Projecting Brandon Woodruff’s Market

Brandon Woodruff is in a precarious position as a free agent. Shoulder injuries are complicated, especially for pitchers. There is no guarantee a pitcher will be the same post-injury. It is very much a game of roulette when it comes to a pitcher’s future performance. The sport has seen countless pitchers robbed of promising careers due to shoulder problems. With Woodruff possibly missing the entire season and the fluidity of shoulder injuries, his market value isn’t in a great place.

While Woodruff has proven in his career that he is among the best pitchers in the business when healthy, no team wants to pay a player to possibly not play the entire season. With Woodruff being able to possibly return in August, the best deal he might be able to get is a two-year contract with a team option for 2025. Whoever signs him, that team is taking a risk due to the possibility he either won’t pitch at all or Woodruff not being as effective anymore. Even though the contract won’t be expensive or long-term, it is still a risky situation that could pay dividends if things work out.

Uncertainty Surrounds Brandon Woodruff Next Year And Beyond

While it was a harsh way to end, sports are a business and happy endings are rare. The Brewers made a smart move by non-tendering Brandon Woodruff. Teams don’t even know if he’ll even be available to pitch at all in 2024. They also don’t know if Woodruff will still be an effective pitcher beyond next season. Woodruff’s free agent value and prospects aren’t great. This offseason, teams are going to have to decide whether the potential award is worth the uncertainty surrounding Brandon Woodruff’s health and career.

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