For the past few seasons, the Astros have been the most dominant team in the MLB. Since 2017, no team has had the same level of success as the Astros have. They have won two World Series, three AL Pennants, and have made seven straight American League Championship Series. They have been so dominant, that they have all but erased the idea of them being cheaters (even though they had one of the worst cheating scandals the sport had ever seen).
Going into 2024, it was assumed that they would continue their winning ways. However just under 50 games into the season, that has not been the case. They are 21-26 on the season, four games back of the Mariners for first. They’re also three and a half games from the last wild card spot. Now it’s still very early that standings don’t matter. However, it’s still concerning that we’re roughly a third of the way into the season and the Astros are on the outside of the playoffs.
This had led many to believe that the Astros needed to be sellers at the deadline. That the dynasty is over and it’s time to tear down and start over. However, that is premature considering who they play next. The Astros have three series left in May all against division rivals. Two three-game series against the struggling Angels and A’s. But, more importantly: four games against the first-place Mariners. Depending on how these series go, will determine the Astros’ deadline plans.
Astros Have a Winning Record Over These Next Three Series
So what would success look like over the next two weeks? Well, for starters, the Astros would have to win both the series against the Angels and A’s. They then need to at least split the four-game series against the Mariners. This fits the old baseball motto of how to be good. You need to beat up on the bad teams and go .500 against the better teams. That is the bare minimum to consider it a successful three-series stretch. That would give them a record of 6-4, giving them a record of 27-30. Still not great, but with them going 14-6 in the last 20 games, the signs would be there that things are turning around.
Of course, this is the minimum the Astros have to do. Anything better than a 6-4 record over these next 10 games would make the outlook on the rest of the season even better. That would turn the Astros into a dark horse in the American League. It would also turn them into a buyer at this year’s deadline.
They would be in the market for pitching. Both starters and bullpen. Sure, the Astros have seen some success from starters like Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez. However, outside of them, their starters have been average to below average. They need someone to shore up that rotation. It’s a similar situation with the bullpen where there has been lots of underperformance. These are two areas that need to be strengthened if they want to have another deep run.
If They Have a Losing Record Over These Next Three Series
What would failure look like over the next few series? Well, it would be them going under .500 over these next ten games. Even if they went 5-5, many baseball fans would see this as an underperformance. Especially because they would either get swept by the Mariners or lose multiple games to the Angels and/or A’s. Teams that are significantly worse than they are. If that was the case, this team would look to be sellers at the deadline.
However, how bad their record is would determine what type of seller they would be. If they go 5-5 or 4-6, then they would probably be more in retool mode and ship off guys on expiring contracts for young players. Then, they would look to revamp the roster in the offseason and go for it again in 2025.
However, if their record is 3-7 or worse, it could spark a fire sale. This is when we could see keep pieces of the core get moved. Guys like Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker would be gone. That would signal more of a rebuild. Now, it’s not gonna be a rebuild as they did in the early 2010s. But, it would be a couple more seasons before the Astros can be serious contenders again.
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