The Red Sox must focus on controllable starting pitching at the deadline.
The Sox need a reliable fifth starter.
Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello have workload concerns.
And Bello and Nick Pivetta could be doing better.
The Red Sox need a starter who can consistently pitch five to six good innings.
Andrew Bailey can’t fix pitchers on the fly if this team is to get where it wants to go. Whoever Boston acquires must be already good.
Whoever the Sox do acquire will also preferably be controlled through 2025.
Luckily, a few starter trade targets for the Red Sox check those boxes.
One of Three Red Sox Starter Trade Targets: Zach Eflin
Embed from Getty ImagesYes, this is the same Zack Eflin who used the Red Sox as leverage to get a better offer.
The Rays are 5.5 games behind the Red Sox in the American League Wild Card race.
Tampa has already traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers. There are likely more moves coming from them.
The Eflin owns a 3.99 ERA/3.66 FIP/3.24 xERA over 99.1 innings (17 starts) in 2024.
Opposing batters are hitting .257/.277/.421/.697 against him with 13 home runs, a 19 percent strikeout rate, and a two percent walk rate. Lefties own a .618 OPS against him, and righties own a .760 OPS.
The 30-year-old gets strike one a lot (67.5 percent first-pitch strikes).
Most importantly, Eflin has pitched five or more innings in 16 of his 17 starts. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 starts.
He’s got a 3.53 ERA over the first three innings and a 4.43 ERA over the fourth through sixth innings.
Most of Eflin’s advanced metrics are good despite some drop-off from 2023.
He’s in the 100th percentile for walk rate, 93rd percentile for expected on base, and 85th for chase rate.
Eflin is in the 78th percentile for xwOBA, the 72nd percentile for hard-hit rate, and the 70th percentile for extension.
He is in the 64th percentile for barrel rate and 62nd percentile for average exit velocity.
Also, Eflin’s 19 percent strikeout rate is lower than last year’s and is more in line with his career 21 percent strikeout rate.
Eflin’s never missed bats, relying more on groundballs and soft contact. That’s not too surprising for a sinker ball pitcher.
Eflin also throws a cutter, curveball, sweeper, four-seam fastball, and a changeup.
We can forgive him if he helps our team win, can’t we? The Red Sox would be getting him for 2025, too.
Interesting Red Sox Starter Target: Erick Fedde
Embed from Getty ImagesErick Fedde is next on the list of Red Sox starter trade targets controlled through 2025.
Fedde, currently pitching for the White Sox, was in Korea in 2023. He previously posted a 5.64 ERA/4.90 FIP over 54 starts (260.1 innings) for the Nationals in 2021-22.
He has figured something out in 2024.
Fedde has a 2.99 ERA/3.53 FIP/3.58 xERA over 111.1 innings (19 starts).
Batters are hitting .227/.280/.358/.683 against him with 11 home runs, a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, and a 6.6 percent walk rate. Right-handed hitters have a .614 OPS against him, while left-handed hitters have a .659 OPS.
Fedde has pitched in at least five innings in 17 starts and gone six or more innings in 11 starts. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 starts.
He’s got a 2.53 ERA in the first three innings and a 4.19 ERA in the fourth through sixth innings.
Almost all of Fedde’s advanced metrics are career bests.
He’s in the 74th percentile of extension, 71st percentile of walk rate, and 71st percentile of hard-hit rate.
He’s in the 65th percentile of xwOBA, 61st percentile of barrel rate, and 54th percentile of xSLG.
Fedde is a different pitcher in 2024. He ditched his curveball, added a sweeper, and increased his use of his cutter and changeup.
His new pitch mix now consists of a sinker, cutter, changeup, and sweeper.
Erick Fedde isn’t the veteran starter Craig Breslow is looking for, but he’s an attractive option nonetheless.
One of the better Fits of all Red Sox Starter Trade Targets: Chris Bassitt
Embed from Getty ImagesKnow who is a reliable, durable veteran starter? Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays.
Toronto has underperformed for years. 2024, though, is a tipping point for the Blue Jays.
They are eight games below .500 and 9.5 behind the Red Sox in the A.L. Wild Card race.
Trade rumors are swirling about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, among others.
Toronto has attractive starters any team would want.
Bassitt is pitching to a 3.52 ERA/3.72 FIP/4.42 xERA over 107.1 innings (16 starts).
Opposing batters are hitting .263/.345/.350/.695 against him with eight home runs, a 21 percent strikeout rate, and a 9.6 percent walk rate. Lefties own a .789 OPS against, and righties have a .599 OPS.
Bassitt has pitched at least five innings in 16 starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 15.
Bassitt has seen some troubling regression in some advanced metrics while remaining steady in others.
The 35-year-old’s strikeout rate, barrel rate, fastball velocity, average exit velocity, and chase rate have remained relatively steady.
He’s never been a chase pitcher, though.
His walk and whiff rates are worse than last year’s. However, he’s never been much of a swing-and-miss pitcher.
Bassitt’s xBA, hard-hit rate, xOBP, xSLG, and xwOBA have all worsened since 2021.
He relies on a sinker, cutter, curveball, sweeper, changeup, splitter, slider, and four-seam fastball.
The kitchen sink.
Some of Bassitt’s pitches have experienced bad luck, while others have gotten good luck.
If you couldn’t tell, all three potential Red Sox starter trade targets I’ve mentioned are heavy sinker-ballers. If the Sox acquire any of the above players, they must shore up their infield defense.
Featured Image Credit: Winslow Townson/Getty Images
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