South Point 400 2024 BellyUp Racing Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Las Vegas to kick off the round of 8 with the South Point 400! This 1.5-mile track has been home to some great races and Kyle Larson domination. In the last three races, just eight drivers are fighting to be crowned champion in Phoenix, Arizona. We already addressed the controversy headed into this round, but if you want to read more about it, check out Kaleb’s article here.

Nevertheless, it’s time to pick up the pieces and move on. Chris and I have come together to give you yet another piece of gambling goodness, with our two drivers to bet on, and which one to cross off your list. It’s also worth mentioning that, while Kyle Larson is probably in all reality going to win this race, we like to take shots in the dark here and provide alternatives. So without further adieu, let’s get this show on the road. It’s the BellyUp Racing picks for the South Point 400!

Chris’s Picks: #1 Ross Chastain (+1600) & #12 Ryan Blaney (+1100)

If you had asked me like two months ago, I probably would’ve told you to stay away from Ross on any track and to mention he’s not had a good two weeks’ worth of races since his first win back at Kansas. However, Las Vegas has been an amazing track for Ross since he joined Trackhouse. In those five races, he’s only finished outside the top ten once, and that itself was a twelfth-place finish. Other than that his worst finish is fifth. Ross and his tenure with Trackhouse have been really good minus a win in Viva Las Vegas, could he spoil another round of the playoff this weekend? 

I’m not sure how, but the defending champion seems to be being slept on by many people. Since the playoffs have started though he has only two finishes outside of the top ten and one of those was Talladega. Also heading to Vegas, Ryan hasn’t exactly stunk it up there either. He’s actually in the last three races improved finish-wise but in sixteen career Vegas races. Ryan has only four finishes outside of the top fifteen. Ryan could easily stamp his way to the championship four this weekend. 

Kaleb’s Picks: #19 Martin Truex Jr (+1400) & #22 Joey Logano (+1000)

No driver has had a better average finish since 2021 at Las Vegas than Martin Truex Jr. The driver of the #19 car has collected stage points in all but two stages since 2017 and has only missed the top 10 once since 2016. If you want a surefire top-10 car in your lineup, look no further than Truex in his final race as a full-time driver in the city of sin. As far as a race-win bet? It’s a tad risky, he hasn’t collected the checkered flag here since 2019. And it’s worth mentioning that this team just hasn’t had luck on their side in quite a long while. But he should collect a lot of points and be in the mix for a great finish by the end of it.

As far as Joey Logano*, he has the ninth-best average finish among active drivers with a 13.1. The #22 car has collected a win and finished in the top 15 in all but one of the last five races here at Las Vegas. Logano* loves playing spoiler, weaseling into spots, and creating chaos. He can start early here in the desert of Nevada by locking himself in first for the Championship four at Phoenix.

Chris’s Fade: #8 Kyle Busch (+1400)

This one kind of pains the race fan in me because I always enjoy seeing the emotion when a driver wins on their home track. However, I don’t like Kyle this go around to Las Vegas. The Spring trip was horrendous minus leading 18 laps. He started 21st and finished 26th. Not to mention RCR as a whole hasn’t exactly been the best on these intermediate mile-and-half-type tracks. Kyle had a few top tens early in the season but that’s really all. Now what are the chances Kyle goes and puts on one of those “Kyle Freakin Busch” types of races? I can’t tell you that, if I could I would be a lot more wealthier of a race writer but it is always possible. Because I think Kyle has the “Dawg” in him still I just don’t know if the equipment is up to par. 

Kaleb’s Fade: #9 Chase Elliott (+1200)

I’m struggling to figure out how this #9 car is at the top of the ranks as far as odds go. Elliott is a damn good driver, he’s only had one DNF and the best average finish this season among full-time drivers. But Las Vegas is not the spot for NASCAR’s most popular driver. Since 2022, he has just two finishes in the top 20. Granted he missed the race in the spring of 2023 when he broke his leg, but this track doesn’t seem like the one that’s going to give Elliott his first win since Texas in the spring. If you can find good value on a top-10 finish, it might be worth it. But this isn’t a track where I’m all in on the #9. You can find better value elsewhere.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports offers here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!