Aroldis Chapman is a Red Sox. Who saw that coming?
Chapman, who turns 37 in February, signed a one-year, $10.75 million deal pending a physical.
Baseball-wise, Chapman is the type of reliever Boston needed.
He is still among the best at generating whiffs and strikeouts. And he’s a left-hander with late innings and high-leverage experience.
Plus, he’s still among the hardest throwers in MLB.
No Red Sox reliever in 2024 had better than a 28 percent strikeout rate (Kenley Jansen).
Justin Slaten‘s 29 percent whiff rate was tops in Boston’s bullpen.
No Red Sox reliever’s fastball was as fast as Aroldis’.
Brennan Bernardino desperately needed help, too.
Red Sox lefty relievers not named Bernardino, Zach Penrod, or Cam Booser had a 5.35 ERA/6.06 FIP, 18 percent strikeout rate, and 22 percent whiff rate.
On paper, the Red Sox are improving at an arguably serious cost.
As good as Chapman still is, he’s been in a noticeable decline for years.
His walk rates in each season since 2021 are higher than in each season from 2012-20 except 2018.
He’s also not great at preventing stolen bases or stranding runners.
And he’s always been prone to implosions in big spots. (How much have we seen Chapman fall apart against the Red Sox?)
Boston’s defense is bad enough as it is…
Worse than any decline, Chapman comes with significant baggage and character issues.
There were other similar free-agent lefty relievers not named Tanner Scott available. They all have questions of their own — none of which are about character.
The Red Sox could’ve gotten similar production without the potential headache.
For a one-year deal, though (not to downplay his off-field problems), Aroldis Chapman on the Red Sox is what it is. There’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract.
Aroldis Chapman: Red Sox’ New Top Lefty Reliever
Embed from Getty ImagesAroldis Chapman is a different pitcher than he used to be from 2012-19.
In 2021, his xERA (3.84), barrel rate (15.6 percent), ERA (3.35), FIP (3.99), home runs allowed (9), walk rate (16.2 percent), and opponents OPS (.678) were all career-worsts.
Over 36.1 innings in 2022, he managed a 4.46 xERA, 17.5 percent walk rate, 4.46 ERA, and 4.57 FIP.
Aroldis has ranked among the best left-handed relievers in MLB over the last couple of years.
In 2024, Chapman was in the 99th percentile in expected batting average (.165) and strikeout rate (37%). He also was in the 91st percentile in whiff rate (32.3%) and the 90th percentile in xERA (2.98).
The “Cuban Missile” pitched to a 3.79 ERA/3.04 FIP/111 ERA+ over 61.2 innings last year. He saved 15 of 19 games, his highest mark since ’21.
Chapman had a .636 OPS against and primarily pitched in the 8th and 9th innings, allowing a .534 OPS in high-leverage situations.
At 335 career saves, third behind Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, his full-time closing days are likely over.
In his first 17.1 innings of ’24, Chapman had a 5.19 ERA/5.94 FIP with a 38.6 percent strikeout and 24 percent walk rate. Opponents had a .810 OPS against him. And he gave up a lead/put his team behind five times.
Over his final 44.1 innings, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA/1.90 FIP with a 36 percent strikeout rate and 10.4 percent walk rate. Opponents had a .562 OPS against him. He gave up a lead/put his team behind four times.
Chapman threw his fastball a career-low 34 percent of the time in 2024. His whiffs and strikeouts now come from a sinker (99.8 mph) that’s faster than his fastball (97.8 mph), a slider, and a splitter.
Can Aroldis Chapman Behave Himself with Red Sox?
Embed from Getty ImagesChapman’s character issues began with a domestic violence arrest in the winter of 2015. His only punishment was a 30-game suspension to start the 2016 season.
Aroldis was the first MLB player ever suspended under MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse Policy.
The offseason incident did not deter the Yankees from trading for him. Or the Cubs from acquiring him at the ’16 trade deadline. Or New York from re-signing him again that winter.
Boston almost got him before the Yankees did the first time but backed out after learning more about the arrest.
In 2022, he was a no-show for a mandatory workout before the ALDS. He was subsequently sent home, ending his Yankee tenure.
In March 2024, he posted a disturbing video on social media. A month later, Chapman was suspended for two games and fined for his behavior while pitching against the Mets.
The Red Sox moved fast on Chapman despite his off-field drama. That was a deliberate choice they made. They did not have to do that.
Red Sox Had Similar Free Agent Lefty Options — But Not Many
Embed from Getty ImagesIf the Red Sox were to acquire a left-handed reliever this winter, the obvious choice was Tanner Scott.
Scott wasn’t what he is now until 2023, but he was always a whiff and strikeout pitcher.
Like Chapman, he is among the hardest throwers in the game, walks a ton, and limits hits.
Unlike Chapman, Scott limits hard contact.
MLBTradeRumors.com projects Scott will get a four-year, $56 million contract. That might’ve been too much for Boston for a pitcher with two years of success and the many needs the Red Sox have.
The Red Sox could’ve had other left-handed relievers on Aroldis Chapman’s level, though.
A.J. Minter
A.J. Minter, 31, who’s always had swing-and-miss ability, has been a solid late-inning lefty for the Braves since debuting in 2017.
In Minter’s first full season in 2018, he had a 3.32 ERA/2.72 FIP/127 ERA+/3.45 xERA over 61.1 innings. Opponents had a .642 OPS against, with lefties having a .529 OPS.
Primarily pitching in the 8th and 9th innings, the lefty allowed a .606 OPS in high-leverage situations.
He was in the 99th percentile in barrel rate (2 percent), the 87th percentile in whiff rate (32 percent), and the 82nd percentile in chase rate (31 percent).
A.J. was also ranked in the 73rd percentile in strikeout rate (26.5 percent) and the 45th percentile in walk rate (8.5 percent).
The Texas native was limited to 29.1 innings in 2019 due to a couple of bouts of shoulder inflammation and multiple options to the minors.
He rebounded in 2021 and has been good and relatively healthy since (until 2024).
From 2021 through 2024, Minter was 34th among all qualifying relievers in innings pitched (221.1). He had a 3.05 ERA/2.85 FIP/140 ERA+ with a 30 percent strikeout and 7.6 percent walk rate. Opponents averaged a .617 OPS against him.
He mostly pitched the 7th and 8th innings, with some 9th inning mixed in, allowing a .737 OPS in high leverage.
Minter had an injury-plagued 2024, pitching only 34.1 innings. He dealt with Left hip inflammation all season and tried to play through it. After missing a month and immediately going on the injured list again, he had season-ending hip surgery.
Some of Minter’s key underlying 2024 metrics were still good, however.
MLBTR predicts A.J. Minter will get a two-year contract worth $16 million.
Andrew Chafin
Embed from Getty ImagesAndrew Chafin, 34, would’ve been another intriguing option.
A good left-handed reliever throughout his career, Chafin didn’t become a consistent swing-and-miss pitcher until 2022.
Chafin posted a 3.30 ERA/3.18 FIP/131 ERA+ over 343.1 innings from 2014-2021. He had a 25 percent strikeout rate, 10 percent walk rate, and 49.6 percent groundball rate. He allowed a .634 opponent OPS.
Primarily pitching the 7th and 8th innings, he held batters to a .668 OPS in high-leverage situations.
In 2022, Chafin had a 2.83 ERA/3.06 FIP/138 ERA+/2.92 xERA over 57.1 innings. He struck out 27.6 percent (78th percentile) of batters faced and walked 8 percent (49th percentile). The former first-round pick had a 34 percent chase rate (89th percentile), a 32 percent whiff rate (87th percentile), and a 50 percent groundball rate.
Mainly pitching in the 7th and 8th innings, Chafin held opponents to a .619 OPS and a .637 OPS in high leverage.
The Ohio native had a down year in 2023. However, some metrics were still among the best in MLB.
He also began using his fastball less in 2023.
That continued into his bounce-back 2024 campaign.
In ’24, Chafin posted a 3.51 ERA/3.54 FIP/116 ERA+/3.64 xERA. He struck out 28.5 percent of batters (85th percentile) and walked 12.6 percent (4th percentile). He generated a 35 percent chase rate (97th percentile), 34.5 percent whiff rate (96th percentile), and career-low 37 percent groundball rate (18th percentile).
Chafin held opponents to a .683 OPS and .665 OPS in high leverage, primarily pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.
Danny Coulombe
Embed from Getty ImagesThe last swing-and-miss lefty reliever available is Danny Coulombe, 35.
Coulombe debuted in 2014, pitching 20.1 innings from 2014-15.
Coulombe finally got his chance with the A’s in 2016.
Over 123 innings from 2016-18, he had 4.10 ERA/4.12 FIP/102 ERA+. He had a 23 percent strikeout rate, 10 percent walk rate, and 58 percent groundball rate.
Danny spent 2019 in the minors and pitched 2.2 innings in 2020.
in 2021, Coulombe pitched 34.1 innings with a 3.67 ERA/3.75 FIP/117 ERA+/3.37 xERA. He had a 23.7 percent strikeout rate and walked 5 percent. Opponents had a .747 OPS against him. He was equally good vs. righties and lefties.
A left hip impingement limited him to 12.1 innings in 2022.
The Missouri native, too, threw his fastball less in 2023.
In 2023, Coulombe had a 2.81 ERA/2.83 FIP/146 ERA+/3.06 xERA in 51.1 innings. He had a 27.6 percent strikeout rate and walked 5.7 percent. The lefty generated a 34 percent chase rate (94th percentile) and a 30 percent whiff rate (76th percentile).
His .220 xBA ranked in the 78th percentile. He held opponents to a 30 percent hard hit (95th percentile) and 6 percent barrel rate (82nd percentile).
And pitching primarily in the 7th and 8th innings, Couloumbe held batters to a .605 OPS and .643 OPS on high leverage.
2024 saw Coulombe limited to 29.2 innings due to bone chips in his elbow.
Coulombe’s whiff (24%), chase (28%), and hard-hit rates (47%) dipped. His strikeout (30%) and walk rates (4.7%), xERA (2.91), xBA (.214), and barrel rate (5.7%) held.
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