Overshadowed by all the Juan Soto hype is the New York Mets’ lack of starting pitching. New York’s starting rotation is littered with question marks. The Mets starting rotation currently consists of Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, and Griffin Canning. These are pitchers who will not intimidate opposing batters. They also aren’t good enough to compete with contenders like the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Padres. The New York Mets do not have a good enough starting rotation to be a serious contender.
The Mets Starting Rotation Overachieved Last Season
Despite not having Kodai Senga for most of the regular season, the Mets’ starting rotation overachieved in 2024. Sean Manaea and David Peterson had career years and Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Tylor Megill were serviceable. This was all despite trade deadline pickup Paul Blackburn being a complete bust. While their overachieving rotation got them through the NLDS, however, it came back to earth in the NLCS against the Dodgers. Dodger hitters tagged Manaea, Peterson, Quintana, Severino, and Senga for a combined 17 earned runs. Los Angeles would eventually eliminate the Mets in six games.
The 2025 Mets Starting Rotation Is Littered With Question Marks
This offseason, the Mets made some small changes to their starting rotation. Jose Quintana and Luis Severino both departed as free agents. The team re-signed Sean Manaea and brought free-agent starters Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning to Queens. The team even signed former Yankees closer Clay Holmes to convert him into a starting pitcher! While Mets owner Steve Cohen is a notorious free spender in free agency, he’s become very cheap when buying starting pitchers. This rotation looks worse than it did last season.
Can Kodai Senga Bounce Back?
The Mets’ starting rotation is littered with question marks. Kodai Senga is coming off missing most of the 2024 season due to suffering multiple injuries. While he managed to return for the postseason, he pitched very poorly. It remains to be seen if he can return to his dominant form. Given the amount of injuries he suffered last season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle.
Griffin Canning Has Never Been Good
Griffin Canning has never been a good starting pitcher at the big-league level. This offseason, the Anaheim Angels gave up on him and dealt him to the Braves. Atlanta would late non-tender him before the Mets signed him to a one-year, $4.25 million deal. In six seasons with the Angels, he went 25-34 with an ERA of 4.78, a 1.333 WHIP. Canning saw his strikeout rate drop from 25.9% in 2023 to just 17.6% last season. The 28-year-old has also become very susceptible to the long ball. Canning gave up the second most home runs in the American League with 31. The only player who surrendered more round-trippers than Griffin Canning was Kutter Crawford. Given how explosive the Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, and Braves offenses are, Mets fans have every reason to panic when he takes the mound.
The Clay Holmes Starting Experiment Is Bound To Fail
The Mets signed former Yankees closer Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million contract intending to convert him into a starter. Holmes is a long-time relief pitcher and hasn’t started a game in eight seasons. The last time he was used as a starter it did not go well as Holmes put up an ERA of 8.18 in just four starts. Holmes has been a career reliever and making the transition to being a starting pitcher at this point is steep. Holmes is also one of those classic Yankee rejects who signed with the Mets because he wanted to stay in New York. This has the makings of another typical bad Mets idea.
Sean Manaea Has A History Of Inconsistency
Sean Manaea had a career year last season. He finished the 2024 season with a 12-6 record, an ERA of 3.47, 184 strikeouts, and a 1.084 WHIP. After he opted out of his contract this offseason, New York brought him back on a three-year, $75 million deal. However, Manaea has a history of inconsistency throughout his career. Whenever he’s had a productive year, Manaea has always seemingly regressed after it. The journeyman starter will also be 33 heading into the season, and this is where a player sees his skills start to decline.
Was David Peterson A One Season Wonder?
Like Manaea, David Peterson also had a career year. Peterson finished last season with a 10-3 record, an ERA of 2.90, 101 strikeouts, and a 1.289 WHIP. However, can he build off his productive 2024 season? One good year isn’t a trend. This league has a history of starting pitchers who were one-season wonders. His FIP of 3.67 demonstrates that his 2024 season was also a product of luck.
Paul Blackburn Might Be The Biggest Liability In The Starting Rotation
Paul Blackburn was acquired by New York from the Athletics at the trade deadline last year. However, he was a disaster down the stretch for the Mets. In five starts with New York, Blackburn went 1-2 with an ERA of 5.18, 21 strikeouts, and a 1.562 WHIP. In his career, the former Athletic has an ugly career ERA of 4.85. He’s also had problems staying on the field as he has never been healthy for the full duration of a season. While the 31-year-old is under team control through next season, he’ll be fighting for a rotation spot this spring. Blackburn is arguably the biggest liability in the starting rotation.
Frankie Montas Is A “Has-Been”
Frankie Montas is a “has-been” starting pitcher at this point in his career. The New York Mets are Montas’s fifth team in four seasons. Since having a great first-half in 2022, Montas has been mediocre or injury-prone. Last season split between the Reds and Brewers, the 31-year-old went 7-11 with an ERA of 4.84, 148 strikeouts, and 1.367 WHIP. Given his trend in recent seasons, it’s going to be very hard to trust him when it matters.
This Rotation Will Add A Chapter To The Book Of Mets Mistakes
To win the World Series, a team has to have a strong starting rotation. The Mets currently don’t have one. New York’s starting rotation has gotten worse compared to last season. There are too many deficiencies in the New York Mets’ starting rotation for them to win a championship. In typical Mets logic, the team thinks the rotation can repeat last season and catch lightning in a bottle twice. This is a mistake that Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto won’t be able to hit enough homers to cover up. The Mets being cheap with their starting rotation will cost them and add yet another chapter of heartbreak in Queens.
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