The Winter Meetings and MLB’s free agency is very unique compared to other sports. When free agency period opens for sports like the NBA or NFL, most free agents already know where they will be suiting up for the next season. You never see that in MLB’s free agent period. This year, free agency began on November 1, and to this point, only two free agents have signed multi-year deals.
Slow starts to free agency is predictable following the trends from years back. However, what is out of the ordinary this time around is the amount of free agents looking for a home. Following the non-tender deadline on Wednesday, 56 more players were let go and added to this crowded free agent class. With the uncertainty that COVID has brought to the sports world, I expect to see free agents be more aggressive in their efforts to sign deals. Luckily for them, the Winter Meetings serves as that time to make progress and complete deals. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the 2020 Winter Meetings.
National League DH?
Similar to a lot of things in 2020, the Winter Meetings is going to look very different this year. Instead of all the front office members, agents, and reporters scrambling around a beautiful hotel in a warm weather city, it will be held remotely this year. How fun!
While this year will not offer that same buzz from the Zoom calls filling up to hear Scott Boras’ press conference, negotiations are still going to happen, free agents are going to sign contracts, and trades will be made. Business as usual. However, there is a glaring question that is truly going to determine this upcoming week and the entire 2021 season. Is there going to be a DH in the National League? As a result of the shortened 2020 season, the DH position was added to the National League as a way to prevent pitchers from getting hurt. As a result, teams in the National League embraced the added depth this created in the lineup. Wow, who would’ve thought, letting a player who is paid millions of dollars to hit contribute to your offense getting regular at bats over a pitcher who strikes out or awkwardly tries to lay down a sacrifice bunt. What a concept!
How It Affects the Market
While this appears to be the direction the National League is heading, it may be on hold for one more season. The Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by MLB and MLBPA lasts until the end of 2021 and was temporarily tweaked in order to accommodate the changes needed in 2020. Because of this, rules regarding the DH revert back to how it was in the season prior, unless both sides agree to make the change permanent. In an offseason where billionaire owners may be crying poor, allowing the DH to remain in the National League will open up 15 more jobs for free agents such as Nelson Cruz and Kyle Schwarber. This will expand their market rather than delegating them to slim pickings in the American League.
How Much Money?
The other big question of the offseason is how will teams spend following the major revenue losses in 2020? Every offseason you have your big spenders like the Dodgers and Yankees, as well as the billionaire owners who choose not to spend like Cleveland and the Pirates. In a normal offseason, it would be expected that we would see nine-figure deals for the top guys like Trevor Bauer, JT Realmuto, and George Springer. While we may still see them approach that amount, I would expect the markets for them to include far less teams than we would usually see for a top of the rotation guy, a franchise Catcher, and a leadoff hitting Centerfielder.
What About the Rest?
It is a certainty that come Opening Day 2021, top free agents like Bauer and Realmuto will be on a team somewhere. What is far less certain is what’s going to happen to the middle to bottom tier free agents? Whether it is an aging veteran that can still produce and be a great addition to the clubhouse or a once highly touted prospect who has struggled for a couple of years, it is an unpredictable winter for those free agents as well. Because of that, what kind of interest are they going to draw? Are they going to have to settle for reduced salaries or bench roles? Will we see a spike in familiar faces head overseas? Will players have to settle for an early retirement? It’s hard to forecast since not every owner is going to spend like new Mets owner Steve Cohen. Despite that, let’s hope we see a lot of these guys on rosters come Opening Day.
Winter Meeting Bold Predictions
With that said, let’s get into some bold predictions for the Winter Meetings.
Signings
Yankees Re-sign DJ LeMahieu and Masahiro Tanaka
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman has long had a history of bringing back his free agents. The market for LeMahieu has been active early with interest from the Mets and Blue Jays being reported. Tanaka had a chance to leave the Yankees when his previous contract included an opt-out, but chose to stay. However, with the need for pitching and LeMahieu’s consistent production, expect the Yankees to work hard to re-sign them.
George Springer and James McCann Sign with the Mets
In an offseason of uncertainty, one thing is certain: Steve Cohen is going to spend money. The Mets are have two glaring holes on their roster, a true centerfielder and an everyday catcher. Cohen and the Mets can take care of both by simply outbidding every other club. Between the new ownership and Robinson Canó donating $24 million to the club, expect the Mets to be very aggressive this upcoming week.
Phillies Lock Up Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand
While they may have to say goodbye to JT Realmuto, there are enough bats in that offense to compete. However, Bryce Harper doesn’t get paid to take the mound late in games. The Phillies bullpen was a complete disaster, and if they don’t bring in reinforcements, they can kiss their chances at the playoffs goodbye. Hendriks and Hand have been two of the best closers over the past two seasons. Putting them at the back of the bullpen would make a huge difference in close games and could make the Phillies serious contenders.
Trades
Blake Snell Gets His Halo
Here we are again, the Angels need starting pitching. After another year of missing the playoffs with Mike Trout, new General Manager Penny Minasian needs to work quick in order to get his superstar to the playoffs. Snell isn’t going to be cheap, in fact it might cost the Jo Adell. Regardless, after seeing how Snell performed in the playoffs prior to the computer suggesting to take him out of every start, he is a top of the rotation guy that can carry a staff through the playoffs, and that’s what the Angels need.
KB Is Off to DC
2016 MVP Kris Bryant has seen his fair share of struggles since his MVP run. With the Cubs looking to shed payroll, I expect Bryant to be elsewhere in 2021. The Nationals, coming off of a lost season following their World Series run, would welcome his presence in the lineup. In a division with the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all making moves, Bryant is a perfect addition. If the change of scenery does him well, the Nationals could look to re-sign him in free agency in 2021. Bryant and Juan Soto back-to-back in a lineup, if healthy, would be a nightmare for pitchers.
Marlins Trade for Francisco Lindor
Well if you wanted bold, here is really bold. Although it was a 60-game season, the Marlins shockingly made the playoffs. They made an in-season trade to bring in Starling Marte. That is a win now move. With Derek Jeter running the Marlins, I think he knows something about the importance of having a star shortstop. Lindor is the piece needed to take the next step with the young pieces the Marlins have in place. In addition, they have the combination of MLB ready prospects that the Indians would look for in return. Don’t be shocked if Mr. Smile makes his way down to the 305 in the 2021 season.
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