We’re here ladies and gentlemen. After labor strife and a pandemic, we finally have a normal(ish) season of baseball. Hope springs eternal for 30 ball clubs and the 28 (for now) players on each squad. Amidst it all, six of these players will take home a major award this year as the best of their peers.
The award race will be something to watch closely this year considering just how many talented ballplayers there are in the game. From Mike Trout to Bobby Witt Jr., the skill level spans from veterans to the youngest in the game. The shortened Spring Training has added an extra wrinkle to this race too. Will the old guard continue to dominate the major races or will new blood take the league by storm?
AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez
This is a really chalky pick. Julio Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster for the Mariners, so he won’t deal with a service time manipulation shortened season. He’s also arguably the number one prospect in all of baseball, battling it out mostly with Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Royals stud Witt Jr. Despite all of that going for him, he’s entering into an ultra-crowded AL rookie pool. The aforementioned Rutschman will likely debut this year and Rays stud pitching prospects Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan will get their first full seasons in. Oh yeah, there’s also another contender for the title of number one prospect in Spencer Torkelson, who also made his Opening Day roster. Add in names like Riley Greene, Grayson Rodriguez, and Jeremy Pena, among others, and we’re talking a crowded, talented race.
And yet, my eyes are still drawn to J-Rod. This is a guy who torched every level of the minors he came across. In his 39 plate appearances in Spring Training, he hit a mind-boggling .412/.487/.794. That is a small sample size, yes, but it’s proof enough that he can hang with the big boys. It’s hard to imagine him not taking home the award and being the cornerstone of the new great Mariners core. Don’t let his slow start fool you. Rodriguez just mashes and he’ll mash his way into Rookie of the Year contention.
Honorable Mentions: Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, Adley Rutschman
NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki
On the flip side, the NL race doesn’t have as many clear and obvious contenders for the rookie crown. There’s Pirates’ top prospect Oneil Cruz, but I think people seriously underestimate Pittsburgh’s ability to keep him down (even though he’s ready). Unless he scorches the Earth itself, he’ll automatically have a tougher road to Rookie of the Year. Also out there is Reds fireballer Hunter Greene who has been lighting up the radar gun so far. He should hang around in the Rookie race though if his first starts were a sign. Really, this feels like it’ll be a two-horse race between the young Giants catcher Joey Bart and Japanese right fielder Seiya Suzuki. I am a biased Cubs fan, but even without my allegiances, my gut says Suzuki.
Where Suzuki will get helped a bit is in his situation. The Cubs are merely ok. They’ll have no reason not to give Suzuki all the runway he needs to get acclimated to MLB. That’s exactly what Suzuki needs to establish himself and I believe he’ll take the chance and run with it. His ceiling is quite high as shown in the NPB where he took home his second batting crown in his last season. Overseas, he owned a superb slash line of .315/.414/.570/ His magic bullet though is his eye. Good discipline and knowledge of the strike zone are skills that more easily transfer from league to league. He expertly displayed that eye in his first series against the Brewers, one of the toughest pitching staffs in baseball.
Combined with excellent defense that earned him six Golden Gloves in Japan, his skillset feels too complete to overlook for Rookie of the Year.
Honorable Mentions: Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Hunter Greene
AL Cy Young Award: Shane Bieber
After last year, I feel like Shane Bieber was a bit forgotten. As a member of the Guardians who barely pitched after the All-Star game last year, Bieber has been out of the public eye for some time now. And yet he was still excellent in his half-season last year with a 3.17 ERA and an even better 3.03 FIP. His Cy Young Award-winning season in 2020, while short, was nothing short of masterful. He led the league in ERA, wins, FIP, strikeouts, and strikeout rate. He’s also been incredible at limiting walks throughout his career as if he needed another strength. With a career 3.26 ERA and 1.119 WHIP, he’s proven himself one of baseball’s top arms.
There are two reservations about his season though: injuries and sticky stuff. It may take Bieber some time to ramp up after a nasty shoulder injury cut his 2021 outing short. Combine that with a shortened Spring Training and he may have difficulties in the early going. There have also been suspicions surrounding Bieber and his connection to foreign substances. It’s hard to definitively say whether or not the crackdown last year hurt his performance or if the shoulder was the issue behind his RPM drop. Either way, there are reasons to doubt whether he can overcome a strong slate of contenders.
Personally, I’m still high enough on Bieber to consider him a contender for the Cy Young Award once again. I’ve learned over the years not to doubt Cleveland’s home-grown arms.
Honorable Mentions: Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito, Luis Garcia
NL Cy Young Award: Corbin Burnes
Last year, Corbin Burnes proved his 2020 breakout was no mere fluke and ascended to the title of best pitcher not named Jacob deGrom. He handily took home the Cy Young with a masterful 2.45 ERA and even more disgusting 1.63 FIP to lead the league. He also led all pitchers in strikeout rates and strikeout to walk ratio, as well as home run rate. With deGrom injured once again, Burnes seems the favorite to take home the crown. As the leader of a three-headed monster Brewers rotation, he still manages to stand out as the organization’s bright spot.
Beyond Burnes, the NL isn’t without its contenders though. Hopefuls to dethrone the Brewer beast include the Phillies Zach Wheeler who was perhaps his greatest rival for the award last year. There’s also Walker Buehler who seems poised to win a Cy Young at some point in his career. Since 2018, he’s been nothing short of incredible with an ERA of 2.83 and a couple of top-ten finishes in the award race. Yet, an underrated rival for Burnes exists in his rotation mate Brandon Woodruff. For years now, Woodruff has quietly toiled away as one of the underrated best pitchers in the game. He even posted an award-worthy performance of his own in 2021 with a 2.56 ERA
Despite the competition, Burnes seems too untouchable at this point to lose. It feels like we’re just entering his prime and I doubt he slows down any time soon.
Honorable Mentions: Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Zach Wheeler
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
As long as Shohei Ohtani is around, it automatically feels a lot harder for anyone in the AL to pick up the coveted MVP award. When you both pitch and hit at an elite level, that value far outweighs anyone who just does one of the two. Last year, Ohtani finally took that leap forward we always hoped he could. In 155 games, he managed a superb 159 OPS+ all while pitching to a 3.18 ERA and 1.090 WHIP. He, of course, blew the league out of the water with 9 WAR and 5.1 win probability added. He also was top five in the league in OPS and tied for the lead in triples. Long story short, he did it all and he did it all very well.
What’s baffling to me is that despite how good he was in 2021, there were clear and obvious ways for him to improve! He only pitched 130 1/3 innings during the season and made 23 starts. Were it not for injuries, it’s possible he could’ve made more starts throughout the season. If he cut down on his strikeouts at the plate too, there’s no telling just how much of a monster he could become. I firmly believe the best of Ohtani is yet to come. This man is going to be a menace to the league for a looooong time. He may be off to a cool start this year, but given his hot Spring and what he did last year, I have no doubts he can right the ship.
Oh yeah, Ohtani will also have the god of baseball himself in Trout backing him up this year.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Trout, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Luis Robert.
NL MVP: Juan Soto
I’m partly choosing Juan Soto for MVP because I think he will win it and because I want to will it into existence. I don’t think there is a better pure hitter than Soto in all of baseball right now and it’s finally time he gets recognized. He arguably could’ve taken home top honors last year if it weren’t for Bryce Harper‘s white-hot second half. Soto led the league in on-base percentage for the second year in a row with a .465 OBP. He also finished second inf offensive WAR only to Fernando Tatis Jr.
He won’t be without some tough competition though. His old Rookie of the Year rival Ronald Acuna Jr. will still be around and awesome this year. There’s also reigning MVP Bryce Harper who might get even better thanks to extra lineup protection from Nicholas Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. This is all without mentioning the Dodgers’ cavalcade of potential MVPs. While Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have both done it before, the oft underrated Trea Turner will really have a chance to shine in Dodger blue.
And yet, I keep coming back to Soto’s godly sledgehammer of a bat and fantastic eye. There just aren’t many hitters like him and he’ll have a little extra protection in Nelson Cruz too. He’s just too good to keep playing bridesmaid in the MVP race.
Honorable Mentions: Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr., Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman.
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