Money is flowing like a river in MLB following the Winter Meetings. Aaron Judge returned to the Yankees for nine years, $360 million. Trea Turner moved to Philly for $300 million over 11 years. The most consequential deal of all, however, was Xander Bogaerts‘ completely mind-boggling 11-year, $280 million deal with the Padres.
It came so far out of left field that it wasn’t even in the same solar system. Projections before the offseason mostly had Bogaerts taking a deal in the six-to-eight-year range with a price tag hovering around $180 million. Thanks to defensive limitations and age, nobody expected him to sign a deal near the younger, higher-ceiling Turner or Carlos Correa. Yet, in the desperate scramble in the fallout of the Judge signing, he got a dream deal.
Bogaerts’ signing is the culmination of a truly wild offseason and will have implications that ripple through what’s left of free agency this year.
Bogaerts Caps a Truly Expensive Offseason
To be clear, Bogaerts isn’t a total outlier. Prices for free agents trended upward this offseason. The canary in the coal mine was the starting pitching market. Before Bogaerts signed, we’d already seen Jacob deGrom sign a longer-than-expected five-year deal. Taijuan Walker didn’t garner an insane number of years, but at $72 million, the price tag was certainly a shocker. Even smaller deals for relievers and bounce-back starters were rather hefty compared to previous years. Robert Suarez got $46 million across five years with San Diego, for example. Outside of pitchers, the three-year deal for Jose Abreu also comes as a bit of a shock considering the age and power decline.
Bogaerts also capitalized on the Padres’ aggression and fear of missing out. Reports came out that they were the highest bidder on both Turner and Judge, though ultimately failed to land either. Their frustration translated into A.J. Preller giving Bogaerts an offer he couldn’t refuse. Whether on purpose or the culmination of a multitude of factors, one thing is for certain – the price of poker just went up because of this deal. Now that he’s set a precedent, Correa and Dansby Swanson are going to ask for the world.
The Bogaerts Deal Hikes the Price on Shortstops
For one, Bogaerts’ deal compounds an already harsh reality after Judge’s signing. With only two big shortstops remaining and a handful of teams still desperate to get one, a bidding war is sure to ensue among the remaining suitors. Thanks to the Judge signing, a new shark or two may be prowling the waters now too. Lower supply of top-tier free agents
The real impact, however, is that now Correa and Swanson have something REALLY expensive to shoot for. Turner’s deal was healthy but not an unrealistic overpay relative to what he was asking. Bogaerts’ deal absolutely was, though. For Correa, who is younger and already could shoot for 10 years of over $300 million baseball, who’s to say his price tag doesn’t reach the stratosphere? Even $400 milllion+ may not be unthinkable in this market considering who’s involved. Swanson won’t be seeking that much, but he’ll earn a healthier contract than expected too. He was originally seen as the most likely to get a shorter deal with likely the lowest AAV of the bunch. Now, he might be able to crack eight years and $200 million himself.
Bogaerts hammered home that NOTHING is impossible in this market. With those expectations set, we could see a thinning group of suitors for both shortstops
The Field of Who Can Pay Up is Slowly Shrinking
Thanks to Bogaerts, it seems the suitors for the remaining two shortstops are finally crystallizing. When I made my predictions for the landing spots of all four, there was still room for things to shift. Considering that nearly half the league was in play, there was always a chance of a team on the periphery swooping in as the Padres did. That seems to be less of the case now.
With Correa and Swanson left, there are only a few realistic suitors. The Giants, after missing out on Judge, are rumored to be in the driver’s seat on Correa, with the Twins also in pursuit. It seems likely that if Minnesota misses on Correa, they’ll pivot to Swanson. The Cubs and Cardinals are both on the periphery, but it seems fairly unrealistic for either. Any mention of Chicago and Correa has almost completely died down, and it’s hard to see them not being outspent for a now more expensive Swanson. Although they’ve seemed serious about adding a superstar and have the money to do so, it looks like they’ll be waiting another year to break out the checkbook. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have more or less hung around to kick the tires.
It’s possible the Red Sox or Dodgers could target Swanson after losing their shortstops, but there’s been no mention yet. The Braves could also step up their offer to retain the shortstop, but again, there’s little smoke there that we know of. Whatever happens, all of these deals will be done in the shadow of Bogaerts’ massive move.
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