The Red Sox know they need to upgrade their rotation. By all indications, Boston’s actively exploring every avenue to do just that. One name — Garrett Crochet — has emerged as a serious trade target for the Red Sox this winter.
There’s a lot to like about Crochet.
Crochet was one of the very best starters in MLB in 2024. Not only that, but he generated a ton of swing and miss, particularly in the zone.
Plus, he’s only 25, has two seasons of team control left, and is likely eager to sign an extension.
Despite his dominance, the Red Sox wouldn’t be getting that rotation anchor they need — at least not immediately.
2024 was Crochet’s first MLB season as a starter. He pitched less than 150 innings and was only elite for two months.
Garrett Crochet is a risky trade target for the Red Sox.
Can Garrett dominate over an entire season? Will he come close to repeating his 2024 if he does?
Can he develop into THAT pitcher?
Will he be dominant outside of the American League Central?
Where the Red Sox are at rotation-wise, is he worth taking the risk? I believe he is — for the right price. Crochet is the exact type of starter Boston is missing.
Sox Wouldn’t Be Getting Sure-Fire Rotation Anchor
Embed from Getty ImagesCrochet, an 11th-round pick in 2020, was drafted by the White Sox to be a starter long term.
The lefty made 13 total starts before 2024, all at the University of Tennessee. He pitched 132 innings over three seasons there.
Professionally, the 25-year-old had 97.2 innings under his belt before last season.
He was called up from Chicago’s Alternate Training Site in September 2020, pitching 6.2 innings that year.
With that call-up, Garrett became the first pitcher since Mike Leake in 2009 to skip the minor leagues entirely.
Entering 2021, Crochet was on multiple Top 100 Prospects lists.
FanGraphs ranked him 77th. Baseball America ranked him 74th. MLBPipeline ranked him 55th.
According to Baseball America, Crochet was the White Sox’s fourth-ranked prospect before that season.
The Mississippi native pitched 54.1 innings in ’21, all in relief, with 2.82 ERA/2.80 FIP/3.30 xERA. He allowed two home runs, walked 27, and struck out 65.
Garrett missed all of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery.
After returning in mid-May 2023, he was again placed on the injured list in late June with left shoulder inflammation.
He made just 13 appearances.
As mentioned, Crochet was excellent in his first season as a starter, but not from beginning to end.
Over 34.2 innings in April, he had a 5.97 ERA/4.03 FIP with nine walks and 47 strikeouts. Opponents had a .715 OPS against and hit seven home runs.
He pitched less than five innings three times and allowed three or more earned runs three times.
The Garrett Crochet everyone covets now showed up in May and June.
In 66.2 innings over those two months, Crochet had a 1.49 ERA/1.52 FIP with 94 strikeouts and 11 walks. Opposing hitters had a .491 OPS against and hit just three home runs.
In 11 starts, he pitched less than six innings twice and allowed more than two earned runs once.
At last year’s trade deadline, he made it clear he wouldn’t pitch in the postseason without an extension and wouldn’t change roles.
With a mounting workload, the White Sox put him on an inning and pitch limit starting in July.
Garrett made more than 90 pitches only once, never even hitting 80 pitches from July 12 on.
He made over 60 pitches only once in his last eight starts.
Never going more than four innings from July on, he allowed three or more earned runs three times in his last 14 starts.
Crochet had a 4.84 ERA/3.39 FIP in his final 44.2 innings with 13 walks and 68 strikeouts. Opponents had a .788 OPS against him over that span.
Crochet finished 2024 with a 3.58 ERA/2.69 FIP/2.85 xERA with a 35 percent strikeout rate and 5.5 percent walk rate over 146 innings. He allowed 18 home runs.
Chicago’s coveted lefty could become that guy the Red Sox need on their rotation. But let’s see him do what he did in May and June for a whole season.
With only 146 innings as a starter, he’s got to work his way up to 170+ innings.
There’s a non-zero chance he’s a repeat of Kutter Crawford‘s 2024 (innings-wise) next year, albeit with presumably better results.
But Garrett Crochet a Trade Target Worth the Risk for Red Sox
Embed from Getty ImagesAll that said, Crochet did things as a starter that he didn’t do as a reliever in 2021.
As a starter, Crochet’s four-seam fastball ranked in the 98th percentile in run value. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate (35 percent).
Furthermore, he ranked in the 93rd percentile in chase (33.5 percent), whiff (33 percent) rate, and extension (7 ft) and in the 91st percentile in xERA (2.85).
Crochet also was in the 87th percentile in walk rate (5.5 percent) and the 64th percentile in ground ball rate (45 percent).
Among all qualified pitchers in MLB, Crochet had the highest whiff rate (33 percent), including the highest in-zone whiff rate (25.5 percent). He allowed the 29th-lowest slugging percentage (.371).
Among starters with at least 140 innings pitched in 2024, he was third in FIP (2.69) and had the 8th fewest extra-base hits allowed (45). He allowed the 9th lowest on-base percentage (.271) and threw the 9th most strikes (68 percent).
The current White Sox lefty allowed a .222 average (15th), a .642 OPS (17th), and an 82 OPS+ (20th).
He allowed 18 home runs (21st) with a 115 ERA+ (24th).
Garrett’s four-seam fastball (97 mph), thrown 54 percent of the time, had a .198 average, .295 slug, and .257 weighted on-base average against. It generated a 31.4 percent whiff rate and a 33 percent strikeout rate. It had a 26.5 percent in-zone whiffs rate and a 47 percent chase miss rate.
Crochet also features a cutter, sweeper, changeup and sinker.
His cutter (91.5 mph), thrown 28% of the time, got hit (.270 average against) and hit for some damage (.461 slug against). However, it did have a 33 percent whiff rate (24 percent in-zone, 54 percent out of the zone) and a 32 percent strikeout rate against it. But the cutter was one of his unluckier pitches last year. It had a .238 expected batting average and .288 xwOBA (.347 wOBA).
Crochet’s sweeper (84 mph) generated a .224 average, 43 percent whiff rate, and 51 percent strikeout rate. Thrown 9 percent of the time, Batters whiffed at the sweeper 29 percent in the zone and 61 percent out of the zone. The sweeper, like the cutter, was a bit unlucky, too. Hitters slugged .552 and had a .343 wOBA on the pitch. But based on contact quality, they should’ve had a .275 slug (xSLG) and .215 wOBA (xwOBA).
Garrett’s changeup, which he threw six percent of the time (91 mph), had a .189 average, .289 slug, and .215 wOBA against it. It generated a 34 percent whiff rate (12 percent in-zone, 50 percent out of the zone) and a 33 percent strikeout rate.
His sinker (98 mph), thrown only two percent of the time in 2024, wasn’t in his arsenal until August. His third-most used pitch (9 percent) down the stretch got good results: a .128 average, a .154 slug, and a .136 wOBA. It generated a 32 percent whiff rate (19 percent in-zone, 50 percent out of the zone) and a 38.5 percent strikeout rate.
All that success netted Garrett Crochet the A.L. Comeback Player of the Year award.
As is well documented, Boston threw the fewest 4-seam fastballs in the A.L. Last year (18.7 percent).
The Sox don’t have a starter as dominant as Crochet was in 2024. Nor do they have a pitcher with a dominant, swing-and-miss fastball like his. The closest they have come on both fronts in recent seasons is Nick Pivetta.
If the Sox can get Crochet without parting with any of the Big Four, it’s a risk worth taking.
Garrett Crochet, a prime trade target for the Red Sox, hasn’t proven anything yet. Yes, I trust Crochet more long-term than Blake Snell, but the former can’t be the lone rotation addition.
Featured Image Credit: Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images
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