Ever since the early 2000s Oakland A’s, analytics have dominated baseball. The old-school way of judging players has fallen by the waist side. Instead of projecting what a player can be, teams look at data and statistical models to understand what value a player brings to a team.
The analytical approach has gone beyond player development. It’s now used in team strategy as well. The way managers manage a game is heavily influenced by analytics. One of the main examples of this is what happened to the stolen base. The analytics suggested that taking the extra base isn’t worth the risk of getting thrown out. Because of this lots of teams abandoned base stealing.
However, since the MLB made bases bigger in 2023, base stealing has returned to the game. More teams are willing to take the risk of taking the extra bag because it’s a lot easier. Team strategies aren’t the only ones adapting to these new rules. Analytics have adapted by creating new stats. So what are these stats and how will they impact the game?
What Are These New Analytics for Base Running?
There are three new analytics to measure a player’s value when running the bases. The first is the Basestealing run value, which is used to value a player’s ability to advance on stolen bases. This measures the probability of a player successfully stealing a base. As well as the impact the player base stealing ability has on the chances to win. There are several factors to find this, including the result of the steal attempt, the speed of the runner, and the distance of their lead.
The second new base running analytic is the Baserunning run value. This stat measures how many runs are created based on stealing bases and taking extra bases. It takes those stats and combines them into one number. This is done by assigning a value to different base running situations. A stolen base or balk is given a 0.2 value while advancing on a ball in play is given a value based on numerous factors. Adding them together shows how many runs are created through base running.
The final stat is Extra Base Taken Run Value. Unlike the other two, this stat doesn’t just measure base runner impact. It also measures the impact outfielders have of preventing a runner from taking the extra base. Based on a range of factors we can have an idea of the success players have in going to the extra base. Now this stat only factors in balls in play. All three of these stats can be used to find Net Bases Gained. It’s how many bases a player steals above average.
Impact They’ll Have on Baseball
The biggest impact these new stats are going to have is how baseball will be put at the forefront again. This is a trend we’ve been seeing since they made the bases bigger. With stolen bases being on the rise, it was only a matter of time until they became a main part of baseball again. However, these stats now give teams metrics of how well their players are at stealing bags. Thus allowing teams to be more strategic in who is taking chances and who isn’t.
It also opens new ways for teams to build. One of the main philosophies in team building has centered around getting on base. The more guys that get on base, the more likely you are to score runs. However, now that we have stats that show how valuable a player’s base running is. Teams might use those metrics to build their teams. Getting guys who can take the extra base, thus making runs scoring much easier. No matter what happens, baseball won’t be the same now that these stats can be used.
Thanks for reading! Credit for my feature image to Norm Hall. You can find more MLB content at Belly Up Sports and follow me on Twitter/X.
