Are The Houston Astros Done?

The unthinkable has happened. The Washington Nationals have defeated both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in the first two games of the World Series. They are only the second team to beat both pitchers this season and the first team to beat the two Cy Young candidates in back-to-back games. The Nationals are also the first team to win the first two games of the World Series on the road since the 1999 Yankees. Now up 2-0, the series takes a trip to the nation’s capital. With that being said, are the Houston Astros done? 

History

If we look at the overall record (10-3) for teams that win the first two games of the World Series on the road, it seems like the Nationals have the series in the bag. BUT according to Baseball-Reference, three of the last four teams to do so have ended up losing the series. The 1996 Braves, 1986 Red Sox, and 1985 Cardinals all went home defeated in the end.  The past 11 teams to win the first two games of the World Series have gone on to hoist the trophy and 17 of the past 18 have done so. But, there is a silver lining for the Astros. Since the 1969 Orioles, no team with at least 107 wins has lost the World Series. 

Advantage: Nationals

Starting Pitching

Since all four starters threw at least 100 pitches in the first two games, Cole, Verlander, Scherzer, and Strasburg should be unable to pitch until at least Game 5. Patrick Corbin came out of the bullpen for the Nationals in Game 1, so that slates Anibal Sanchez and Zack Greinke to start Game 3. As of recently, advantage Nationals. Sanchez has given up just one run in 13.2 innings this postseason. Greinke has allowed 10 runs in 14 IP. Given the teams’ rotation, the Game 4 starters would be Jose Urquidy and Corbin. Cole could start Game 4 on three days rest, but he hasn’t started a game on short rest all year. 

Advantage: Nationals

Bullpen

Taking away the onslaught of runs allowed by the Astros’ bullpen from last night’s game, if the series were to turn to the bullpen, it’s a completely different atmosphere. Comparing the two bullpens just seems unfair. The Astros’ bullpen compiled a 3.75 ERA in 2019, the third-lowest in the MLB. The Nationals’ bullpen was the complete opposite. They ended their season with a bullpen ERA that was historically bad. They sat at the bottom of the MLB with a 5.66. 

Advantage: Astros

Combine all of the statistics and probabilities listed, and add in the fact that the Astros’ offense has been dormant with RISP all postseason. Are the Houston Astros done? There’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. And the 2004 Red Sox taught us that, in baseball, anything can happen.