Every year MLB chooses two of the most outstanding rookies from each league and bestows the Rookie of the Year Award upon them. This is obviously a goal for every rookie that reaches the bigs. However, this past year gave us a record-breaking full season of excitement from Pete Alonso. In addition, we saw a smaller sample size from Yordan Alvarez that has everyone on the edge of their seat waiting to see what this kid can do with a full season of at-bats. We will be breaking down the rookie of the year for the National and American Leagues. Will there be regression in either or both of their sophomore seasons? Lets talk about it.
Breaking Down Rookie of the Year for the National League
The rookie of the year race in the National League for 2019 included some names we will hear for a long time to come. Mike Soroka is going to be a force on the mound for the Braves. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres looked to be an all-world talent across the board. Most noteworthy is the season put together by Pete Alonso with New York Metropolitans. Breaking down the Rookie of the Year campaign for Alonso will show as amazing a list of feats as any Rookie of the Year in MLB history.
One for the Record Books
First of all, he won the Home Rub Derby as a rookie. Not to mention setting the Major League record for home runs hit in a single season with 53 (Judge 52 in 2018). As a result, Alonso took over the top spot in Mets franchise history as well, passing Nick Hundley and Carlos Beltran who each had 41. Although his batting average was mediocre at best he still put up a triple-slash line of .260/.358/.583. That amounts to an impressive .941 OPS and throw in 120 RBI. Certainly, the Mets are happy with those numbers. Alonso ranked 4th in MLB with a 15.8% barrel rate and 10th among National League position players with a 5.06 WAR. I don’t expect a lot of regression from Alonso but I do not see him repeating the year he just put together. The fact that Pete ranked third in the National League in strikeouts gives me pause. Furthermore, a lot of players regress after a great rookie year. Pete may not have a sophomore slump but it will be very tough to repeat his 2019 campaign. The American League Rookie of the Year is quite a different story.
Breaking Down Rookie of the Year for the American League
Similarly to Pete Alonso, Yordan Alvarez put up a very impressive rookie campaign. Although he did not play an entire season. Alvarez debuted on June 9th, 2019 and played 87 games while showing off what he can do with the bat. The potential that was shown is astronomical for a 22-year-old who became only the second player to ever hit a home run into the third deck of Minute Maid Park. Let’s dive into some numbers breaking down the Rookie of the Year for the American League.
What Could Have Been With 162
First of all, Alvarez posted a .313/.412/.655 slash line. That adds up to be the third-highest OPS posted in 2019 at 1.067 trailing only Trout and Yelich. Now that’s some good company. Secondly, he managed to mash 27 HRs and drove in 78 RBI during the 87 game stretch. A lot of players would gladly take those numbers over a full season, every season. Furthermore, Alvarez compiled a 173 OPS+ which was 73% better than league average (Min. 300 PA) along with a 178 WRC+. That WRC+ is the highest for any player with at least 300 PA since Shoeless Joe Jackson for the 1911 Cleveland Naps (184 WRC+). Alvarez ranked seventh in the MLB with a 10.3% barrel rate and a .366 BABIP. If he continued that production, imagine what could have been with 162.
Quick Fantasy Thoughts
Pete Alonso has an ADP of 25.6 (standard draft) and an average of $30 (auction draft) while valued at $24 per Yahoo Fantasy. This would put him as the third 1B off the board. Although I do project some regression, the numbers don’t lie. If drafting in the third round and without a 1B, it would be hard to pass if he’s still sitting there. I predict a .255 avg with 34 HRs and 97 RBI.
Yordan Alvarez has an ADP of 35.0 and an average of $26.9 while valued at $22 (Yahoo Fantasy). This places Alvarez as the 10th outfielder taken around the 3rdto 4th rounds. While there is a risk in taking a player with only 87 regular-season games played, the ceiling for this young man is sky-high. Three players going around the same draft spot to consider would be Austin Meadows (Rays), Charlie Blackmon (COL) and Starling Marte (Now in Arizona). I predict a .290 average with 40 HRs and 109 RBI.
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