Out of all four major American sports, the NFL has the most turnover from year to year by a strong margin. Three and a half seasons is the NFL average for a player these days, and it doesn’t seem to be changing too quickly. As soon as a player comes into the league, it is a forgone conclusion that he will most likely be out after a handful of seasons. With this type of league wide turnover its an easier task than before to take your team from the cellar to the penthouse in a couple months (ask the Rams). Being a copy cat league, when something works you better believe there will be 31 other teams trying to mimic it. One of the most popular trends that we have seen rise to the top has been teams trying to utilize various offensive weapons and being unpredictable with their formations. Of course teams have always tried to take advantage of the talent on their roster, but there have been clear signs of a shift in offensive philosophies over the last few seasons. Some of the strongest evidence of these adaptations are proven when taking a deep look at the changes to the wide receiver position.
The Death of the X Receiver
Its been almost a year since the Dallas Cowboys decided to part ways with Dez Bryant. I remember thinking it was a smart decision on their part, but I was going to scoop him up at his discounted price everywhere I could. Well we all know how that situation turned out. The physically imposing wide out had been dominating cornerbacks for the better part of 5 seasons. We had become used to the plays of him creating separation or grabbing a jump ball off pure athletic ability since he entered the league. In 2017— now 29 years old— Bryant’s ability to win those one on one situations outside the numbers had become less frequent. If he was going to survive he would have to prove to a team he could be useful elsewhere in the formation.
If you rewind a few years back to 2013 you could find great evidence of a Pro Bowl receiver changing his game to prolong his career. Bruce Arians stepped in as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals that season and took the league by storm with his “Air Raid” attack. One of the key components to the success of this high flying offense was to take an old successful wide out and turn him into their slot receiver. The season before Arians took over, Larry Fitzgerald was 29 years old and his top end speed was no longer threatening to number one corners around the league. Arians gave him a new role and new lease on his NFL career by increasing his slot snaps 30% in 2013. Along with the increase in slot time came increased production as he was able to grab 82 balls for almost 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns, which was his most in four seasons. Fitzgerald has flourished in that role since and is on his way back for the 2019 season to add to his Hall of Fame career.
In the case of Dez Bryant, would he have been able to cut the mustard in the slot? The statistics say no. Bryant had been predominately glued to the outside of the formation for a number of years. His best fantasy football years came in 2012-2014 when he never received more that 16% of his snaps close to the hash marks. The following seasons as the game was changing the Dallas Cowboys also tried to have Bryant change by increasing those slot numbers above 19%. For two seasons the production was very good, but it all came crashing down. In 2017 Bryant was running a healthy 22% of his routes out of the slot, but failing to capitalize with one of the league worst .95 yards per route run. My belief is that the Cowboys were planning on adapting Bryant’s role into something like Fitzgerald’s in Arizona, but his inefficiencies forced their hand to move on from the poor play and expensive contract.
Trend or Change in Philosophy?
In the 2019 version of the NFL, if you cant play the wide receiver position out of the slot it is going to be difficult for you to be a WR1 in fantasy. In half point scoring from 2006-2015 the top 12 WRs in fantasy points per game (minimum 8 games) played out of the slot on average 26% of the time. We have seen our share of anomalies in fantasy football, so the fact that number jumped to 32% in 2016 was considered to be an outlier at the time. The following season the average jumped again to a 36% slot rate for the top 12 WRs. This was the highest number we had seen since the beginning of charting slot statistics. The one strange thing though about 2017 was points were down as a whole at the position. The top 12 WRs averaged 13.9 PPG that year, which was the lowest in the 13 seasons I looked at. Was the higher slot rate effecting top end scoring at the position?
In 2018 a couple of important questions about the WR position were answered. First, The increased slot usage by top play makers was here to stay throughout the league. We saw that 2017 record breaking WR1 slot average only drop one percent in 2018. From 2006-2017 on average 8 out of the 12 fantasy WR1s played at least 17% of their snaps out of the slot. In 2018 all 12 played at least 17% of their snaps out of the slot and only Mike Evans failed to have a slot rate greater than 20%. The second thing we learned in 2018 is that the increased usage out of the slot by the superstars did not and will not slow down fantasy production. Last years WR1 PPG average was 16.2, which isn’t far off the clubhouse leader 2014 and 2015 seasons when the big dogs racked up 16.6 PPG. The points are now being accumulated differently, but they are still coming in bunches.
As we look ahead at what this means for the 2019 season, I urge you to except these changes sooner rather than later so you gain an edge on your opponent. The fantasy football WR1 has evolved over the last three plus seasons and we have to adapt with it. Some of brightest young pass catchers statistics tell us the tale about what the future holds. DJ Moore, Corey Davis, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Mike Williams, and Tyreek Hill—to name a few— all played at least 30% of their 2018 snaps out of the slot! This is the direction the league is heading and it is a new era for the WR position. Slot production will be tied to fantasy points for the foreseeable future. Dez Bryant hauling in 50/50 balls down the sideline seems like a lifetime ago at this point. Now we are left with Tyreek Hill taking deep crossers out of the slot to the house!
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