If there’s one thing baseball has over other sports, it’s the complete lack of predictability. You can try to build a super team, but it just is never a guarantee. The Mets last year pulled in a haul of coveted free agents with nothing to show for it. The Nationals lost their franchise player and won the World Series. Although they still picked up a huge name in Patrick Corbin, a huge factor. MLB Free Agency for this off season will be one of the most important factors affecting 2020 World Series odds, especially with such a strong class. It seems like most contenders this last year will be affected by the pending free agency, as illustrated by lost WAR. Out of playoff teams, The Nationals are losing the most, (Rendon, Strausburg), and the Rays are losing the least.
Last year, there were a few signings that were shrugged at, but ended up paying dividends. DJ Lemahieu and Lance Lynn are the two best examples of this, both more than doubling their fWAR from the previous season. Who will be those guys next year? I’ll take a dive into some lower profile guys in this free agency class and see which players have the best chance of making a leap. I focused on players who underperformed their statistical profiles, and take a guess on who can improve.
Homer Bailey:
I might get crucified for this. Regardless, Homer Bailey has been very unlucky. His ERA outperformed his FIP and xFIP by a decent amount. By FIP, Bailey was better than Jon Lester, Masahiro Tanaka, as well as Trevor Bauer. His K/9 numbers were stronger than Ryu, Tanaka, and Marcus Stroman. His pitching profile is stronger than his reputation. He should be a solid rotation piece and is bound for some improvement.
Kole Calhoun:
Most view him as a defensive only piece with occasional pop, but I’d contend that he has the ability to perform better offensively. He posted a higher xwOBA than Trevor Story, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Francisco Lindor last season. He also posted a 5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating, still being an above average corner outfield defensive player. His ISO jumped last season from previous season averages about .70 points. This, in addition to his higher xwOBA means he should be in for more improvement in power as soon as next season. He could be a good pickup for teams on a budget.
Alex Avila:
Yes, he’s also an aging veteran, but one simply cannot ignore the -.034 point discrepancy between his xwOBA and wOBA. His batted ball profile suggests that he was unlucky last season and has a chance to be much better next season. His defense has stayed consistently above average, posting 6 and 7 DRS over the past two years behind the dish. Though in all reality, DRS is not a good way to measure catching defense. In addition to that, Avila was 6th among catchers in Strike Rate, and 15th in Runs from Extra Strikes, indicating his top-tier framing.
Jason Castro:
This last guy is a serviceable defender, but also underperfomed his expected numbers by a heavy amount. His xwOBA was in the 85th percentile, in the range of Yasmani Grandal and Nick Castellanos. His xSLG was in the 86th percentile around Ketel Marte and Charlie Blackmon. Castro was 14th in the league in barreled balls per plate appearance above Josh Donaldson and Ronald Acuna Jr. These numbers indicates a very heavy amount of bad luck at the plate. His batted ball profile is that of a top tier offensive guy, but the actual numbers fall way short. Castro only posted a very average .767 OPS and a slightly above average fWAR of 1.6, as well as an average WRC+ of 103. Expect an improvement on his numbers next year as a result of a very enticing batted ball profile.
The big names are always the most attractive part of paying attention to MLB Free Agency, but a lot of the under the radar signings could pay off in a more unexpected way. I might be off on a couple of these guys, but you can’t ever really predict baseball. Numbers are just to help. Expect solid years from these guys with whatever team signs them.
