Let’s assume for the sake of argument that a week from today we will be celebrating 2020 as the beginning of the new decade (some say January 1st, 2021 is the true mark). We all tend to view New Years as the culmination of something and the onset of something well… new. The NASCAR world has seen tumultuous times since 2010. Many future Hall of Famers such as Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Mark Martin have retired. Jimmy Johnson is calling it a career after next season. The France family still sits at the helm of the sport, guiding the business through flagging attendance and sponsorship woes. Join me for a look into NASCAR’s next decade and see what the state of stock car racing will be when we turn from the twenties to the thirties?
The Driver’s Landscape
There is a dearth of star power in the top echelon of NASCAR. Perennial most popular driver Chase Elliott doesn’t inspire viewers to tune in. Drivers like Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex are solid but have little to no crossover appeal. The heartbeat of the sport still lies in the southeast and there really aren’t a lot of candidates to capture fans’ imaginations like an Earnhardt or a Petty from generations past. Beyond Kyle Busch, there will likely be no all-time greats behind the wheel in 2021. Or will there be?
The next candidate for can’t miss star is about to embark on his freshman season in the Cup series. Christopher Bell has all the tools to win many races and multiple championships over the next ten years. In fact, the Rookie of the year battle in 2020 will be as must-see as the championship fight in many people’s eyes. But neither Bell or fellow rookies Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick have shown a personality that transcends their driving ability. Who does have that It factor? Ryan Blaney. Check out his old tweets and turns on the red carpet as examples.
Tracks
A look into NASCAR’s next decade must include where the drivers will race. I predict one current Cup track will lose its’ spot on the schedule and two new tracks will have dates by the end of the next decade. The current scheduling agreement was for five years and expires after the 2020 season. Scheduling will look markedly different in years to come. There will probably be more single dates at tracks, more road courses and more tracks under a mile in length.
Pocono has sort of just existed on the Cup schedule for years. Fans groan when they see the tricky triangle as the next race up. To be fair, Pocono has had some interesting strategical races (see Chris Buescher in 2016)and fun finishes from time to time. But all in all, there is too much separation between cars, leading to strung out fields and boring afternoons. In 2020 NASCAR is taking what is likely a final step to remedy this situation by instituting the first doubleheader weekend in modern history. I’m not sure getting both Pocono races over within the span of two days will be enough to save it from the ax.
The short tracks of Nashville and Iowa are the most likely candidates to be added to the crowded Cup schedule. I believe both will be part of a strategy to bring back bumping and banging as a draw for fans thirsty for contact and controversy. Nashville was last part of the Cup series in 1984 and the lower tiers raced there until 2000. The superspeedway nearby was closed in 2011. The Rusty Wallace designed 7/8 mile Iowa Speedway has long pined for a visit from the big boys and NASCAR’s seeking to adjust a stale schedule may benefit the mid-western track as well.
Business
My crystal ball says NASCAR may be in the hands of someone outside of the France family for the first time in history at some point in the 2020s. Currently, Jim France, Big Bill’s youngest son, steers the ship, having taken over from Brian France after his run-in with the law over alcohol issues. After Roger Penske recently purchased the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the IndyCar series, is it far-fetched to imagine someone swooping in to take over the reins of NASCAR in an attempt to return it to former glory? Who would that benefactor be? Someone like Penske or may Roger himself? A coalition of current owners? Or former drivers? I think it would have to be similar to Big 4 sports, where the owners form a league-wide management structure and pull strings as a managing board.
I am a huge believer in the Gen 7 car that will debut in 2021. This version of the car will more closely resemble showroom models, the splitter will go away and so will the huge spoiler. I think cars that are harder to drive promote better racing anyway. If NASCAR fans are patient (yeah, I know) I think it will be rewarded.
More Predictions
- Another female will drive in the Cup series, more likely multiple females. Hailie Deegan is the safest bet.
- Clint Bowyer will join a broadcasting team and excel. Jimmy Johnson will be around but not a weekly presence at tracks.
- The truck series will look incredibly different if it exists at all.
- The Xfinity Series will run Eldora. Cup will not run on dirt…yet.
- Drivers will continue to retire younger. A full-time contender in his or her 40’s will become a white whale.
- Tracks will sell out again. At least Bristol and Richmond. Based on the appeal of the Gen 7 car.
- iRacing will continue to go through a boom as current owners and drivers become more involved.
What do you think of my look into NASCAR’s next decade? Will I be lonely out on my limb? Nostradamus or Nostra-dumb-ass? Hit me up on twitter @dwscrippler and continue the conversation. Follow our other tremendous writers at Belly Up Sports. Happy holidays!
