It’s almost Christmas. I guess that means it’s really time to start thinking about March Madness and the entire scope of the NCAAB Tournament. Once we are fully entrenched in the NCAAB season, I love checking out the NCAAB section at SBR Forum where I can compare my basketball thoughts against potentially, thousands of others. All eyes are on the Top 5, so for now, let’s have a look at the back-half AP NCAAB Top-10 as it’s likely that each of these teams gets a berth into the big dance. That is… unless something catastrophic happens.
No. 10 | Oregon
The Ducks used to be only known for fast football. Now they are known hard-nosed basketball on the hardcourts. The Ducks hit a two-game losing streak out on neutral courts. However, the losses didn’t really hurt them as it was against No. 6 Gonzaga and No. 17 UNC. The thing is the Ducks lost by just one point to the Zags, 72-73 and four-points to North Carolina 74-78.
Their next test is on Saturday at No. 5 Michigan. If the Ducks lose by a smidge, again it shouldn’t hurt them too badly. If they win, they could jump up a few spots in the Top-10. The Ducks have been holding even good teams down. Opponents average just 67.38 points per game, and the Ducks are projected with a 99.6 percent chance of getting a bid and actually ranked 9th in the predictive power rankings.
No. 9 | Virginia
The Cavaliers just got smoked by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game – football– but I’d like to see the Tigers compete with Virginia on the hardwoods. The Cavs – as of Tuesday– are 8-1 and sitting in first place in the ACC. Their only loss thus far is to Purdue and if there is one thing that is consistent, despite a lackluster offense, the Cavs defense is stifling. They only allow 44.2 points per game and have an 87.7 percent projection of receiving a tournament bid.
No. 8 | Kentucky
The Wildcats are always good. So far, at 7-1, they have a handle on the SEC losing a surprise game to Evansville. Kentucky has a rough schedule ahead with Ohio State and Louisville both coming up but seeing how both teams outrank them, solid play should allow the Cats to tread water and hang on to their 87.5 percent berth probability.
No. 7 | Duke
Another perennial contender, the Blue Devils are 9-1 and look really tough. In fact, the predictive power rankings have Duke all the way up at No. 3 after smashing both Virginia Tech and Michigan State. Look for the Blue Devils to climb the rankings and get a tournament bid. Coach K won’t let this team fall from the Top 10 and he’s likely to make a run at the ACC.
No. 6 | Gonzaga
The Zags are 10-1 and showed that they can get gritty wins over tough teams with clutch shooting when they took down the No. 22 Huskies recently. The No. 6 team who’s ranked 1st in the WCC has a statistical probability of 99.6 percent to get into the big dance. So far, their only loss was to a tough Michigan team who held them to 64 points. Though they do have a pair of difficult games coming up when they play Arizona on Saturday and then follow up with North Carolina a couple of days later.
No. 5 | Michigan
The Wolverines will get tested by Oregon, but their defense has been their key to victory. But they allowed Iowa to score 91 one them, and with tough tests like Illinois and Oregon coming up back-to-back, they’ll have to button down the hatches. Still, the Wolverines have a 95.9% to get into the tournament through a tough Big 10. I mean, their only loss so far is to Louisville, the No. 1 team in the country, and they held the Cardinals to 58 points, a team that usually scores in the high 70s to low 80s.
Michigan should maintain a long win streak as they have a soft schedule for the next couple of weeks – until they meet Kentucky at the end of the month.
