Selection Sunday is exactly 37 days away, and they’re still is not a clear cut favorite. Heck, there are about five to seven teams you could make an argument for to be number one seeds. Selection Sunday is the day teams find out their road to Atlanta for the Final Four. No excuses, your path is predetermined, Nothing to do but just win. Here are 15 of the top 25 teams in the country that are favorites to make deep tournament runs.
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#1 Baylor (20-1)
The Bears have the best backcourt in the country. They have legitimately four guards that score with the best of them. Led by Jared Butler this Baylor offense is hard to stop, it reminds me of an efficient, and structured AAU team. Meaning, they come at you in waves with backcourt scoring, and you can’t just account for one or two guys. Defensively, they don’t defend, they disrupt and are the fifth most efficient defense in the country. Baylor is the best team in the country and has been so for some time. Baylor dominates all elements of the game. Mark Vital and Freddie Gillespie doing there dirty work on the offensive glass. It will be tough for most teams to match up with them, especially in a tournament setting. Right now the committee should be the Bears as the number one overall seed come Selection Sunday.
#4 San Diego State (23-0)
Tough, efficient, and experienced are the three ways to describe the Aztecs under Brian Dutcher. What stands out the most about this team to me is how unselfish they are. They don’t care about whos scoring all the points. San Diego State is the only undefeated team left meaning they have a target on their back. Some teams shy away from it, but they have stuck to their identity which is team defense. The Aztecs are currently the sixth most defensive efficient team in the nation. They have the DNA of a Final Four team over the past four years. Their experienced backcourt, three 5th year players and balance on both ends of the court. This Aztecs can flat out defend and can stick with any team in the country. They likely will finish the regular season undefeated, giving them a number one seed.
#7 Duke (19-3)
Coach K has gone back to his olds roots of running a high-low offense with a stretch four in Matthew Hurt and a traditional Center with Vernon Carey. Carey is a load down low and presents matchup problems for most teams they face. The Blue Devils are very well rounded and do most things well with the personnel to match that. They are also deep, they play 10 guys, and isn’t much of a dropoff when they do sub. Duke is playing well with only three losses and their schedule is very favorable. Outside of game against Florida State, they should win out the rest of the way. They will look to be a one seed come Selection Sunday.
#6 Dayton (20-2)
Probably the biggest surprise in college basketball this season is the Dayton Flyers and coach Anthony Grant has this team rolling. The Flyers have the best player in the country in Obi Toppin, but they aren’t just a one-man show, they have an all-around good team. Dayton likes to play fast and shoot a bunch of threes. As a team, they shoot 37.4 percent from behind the arc. However, they do two things that will translate to tournament success. That is making shots efficiently and distributing the ball evenly. Dayton makes 52.5 percent of their shots and is fourth in APG. They run great offense and get good shots on the majority of their possessions. This starts with Toppin, he is the best passer in the country out of a double-team, which leads to wide-open threes for Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson. Watch out for the Flyers in March!
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#9 Maryland (19-4)
If you look at the Terapins as a whole they look like a championship team. They have a great PG in Anthony Cowan. A good combination of upper and underclassmen. Great coaching from Mark Turgeon, potential NBA players in Cowan, Jalen Smith, and Aaron Wiggins, and depth. So what’s the issue? For starters, they play too slow. I wish Turgeon would make his team play with more tempo. They have the PG and athletes to do so. Secondly, they can’t shoot. Maryland is 258 in the country in three-point percentage (31.6) and is 247 in effective field goal percentage (47.9). In too many games they go long lapses without scoring often 10, 11 even 12 minutes go by without a field-goal.
#10 Villanova (17-5)
On paper, the Wildcats check off all the boxes. They have several guys that can shoot the three, rarely turn the ball over and are very good defensively. Something is missing. I question their toughness when games get close. They also rely on the three-point line too much. They shoot 26.7 threes per game which is 27th in the country. In the early rounds of the tournament, most teams struggle to find their legs offensively and rely on defense and going to the free-throw line. The Wildcats are average in both these categories. They don’t scare teams defensively, especially without a shot-blocker and don’t attack the basket enough to get foul calls. As a team, they only go to the charity stripe 16.1 times per game which ranks 292 in the country. Nova is talented but they don’t look or feel like a Final Four team right now.
#5 Louisville ( 20-3)
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times. Great PG play is the foundation of a championship team and the Cardinals do not have that. In their three losses, they couldn’t establish any flow offensively and all three losses came to teams ranked in the top 45 in defensive efficiency. This Louisville team reeks of underachieving post-season success, from their inability to struggle with pressure. When things get tough they tend to fold like a cheap tent rather than finishing the job. Coming into the year they had high expectations, but haven’t improved like they were supposed too. The Cardinals don’t dominate teams, begging the question; how good are they really?
#12 Seton Hall (17 -5)
Other than Myles Powell and maybe Quincy McKnight how many players on this Seton Hall team have a huge impact offensively? They only have three players that average nine points or more. Seton Hall reminds me of the Houston Rockets. One really good offensive player that shoots a lot of bad shots with a bunch of role players around him. If Powell has one-off night the Pirates will be going home early. Their offense too often is a bunch of standing around waiting for Powell to make a play. Three of their five losses came when Powell struggled. You will not advance far in March if you don’t have a well-balanced team. For the Pirates’ sake, they hope Selection Sunday fares them well by placing them in the East region were their first game will be in Albany New York.
#16 Michigan State (16-7)
The Spartans have similar problems as Seton Hall, except they are more polished and experienced as a team. Cassius Winston is arguably the best PG in the country, but they have been waiting all year for another perimeter player to emerge. Coming into the year I thought it would be Aaron Henry. But, he is pretty much the same player from a year ago. Tom Izzo and company have now lost three of their past five games. Ask yourself, how many good teams have the Spartans beaten all year? They have only beaten two ranked teams all year. One of which in Michigan who hasn’t been the same since November. This Michigan State team has drastically underachieved from being ranked the preseason number one. It will be interesting to see where they are seeded on Selection Sunday.
On the Fence
#15 Kentucky (17-5)
The main issue that has plagued Calipari teams is shooting. Once again the Wildcats cannot shoot only making 31.6 percent of their threes as a team. But, there is hope. This Kentucky team is tough. To go on the road to Lubbock Texas and beat the Red Raiders is a tough task. In December after losing two games in a row, managing to beat Louisville is impressive. The Wildcats are a tough matchup for most teams. Kentucky defends at a high level and dominates teams with their size. They get an offensive rebound 29.6 percent of their possessions. The committee could under-seed the Cats on Selection Sunday as a three or four seed and I would not want to play them.
#8 Florida State (19-3)
The Seminoles are the juggernaut of versatility. Leonard Hamilton plays 11 guys and the drop off from one player to the next is non-existent. Out of all the teams on this list, they are the hardest to prepare for. They have a long athletic team with an average height of 6′ 7″. They are very disruptive defensively and have multiple guys that can make shots. The ability to sub guy after guy and get the same product will be a reason Florida State could win a National Championship this year. The Noles are the most underrated team in the top 25. Don’t be surprised if they seeded high come March 15 on Selection Sunday.
#14 Oregon (18-5)
The Ducks have the pieces this year to make their 3rd Final Four in Oregon history. My main issue with them is consistency. Some weeks Oregon looks like a top-five team in America and other times a team that barley should be ranked in the top 25. This year they have struggled with starting off slow, digging a hole for themselves that’s hard to get out of. This Dana Altman team is resilient and competes till the end, but need to start games better. Several games this year Payton Pritchard has bailed them out with clutch threes and taking over games late. The mighty Ducks are deep and have guys that simply make shots at a very efficient rate. 38.7 percent from three, 47 percent from the field and 25th in the country in effective field goal percentage.
#3 Kansas (19-3)
Bill Self‘s squad plays a very unique style of basketball, very “old school”, but it works. They play through their Center Udoka Azubuike with post-ups and PnR opportunities. Their best player who runs the show is PG Devon Dotson, it is almost impossible to stay in front of him with his quickness and speed. He is also, one of the best finishers in the country. Kansas can overpower teams with their size and physicality. If they can continue to make shots consistently they will be in the Final Four in Atlanta come April. If they can beat Baylor later this month, that will help their Net ranking. Possibly making them the number one overall seed on Selection Sunday if the Zags and Aztecs lose.
#11 Auburn (20-2)
What Bruce Pearl has done this year with the Tigers is impressive. They only brought back 37.3 percent of their minutes and 32.8 percent of their scoring from a year ago. In my opinion, the Tigers are bit overrated, but they are playing well winning five games in a row. One of which was over Kentucky at home. My issue with this team is PG play, shot-making, and pressure. J’Von McCormick is a good PG but only played 12 minutes as a junior last year. Now, becoming a full-time starter the expectations of him are different. I watched their game against Ole Miss last week and he struggled late, careless turnovers and bad shot selection. Auburn plays too much ISO ball at times and it gets them in trouble. They have good isolation players, but when they start to take bad shots it could hinder their long-term success.
#2 Gonzaga (24-1)
Many college basketball fans forget about the Zags. They are camped out west for two months and play a competitive game once every blue moon. Don’t sleep on the Bulldogs; they are the most complete team in college basketball. They dominate teams in all facets of the game. My only concern is the health of Killian Tillie. Mark Few could finally have a National Championship he has sought after for so long. This could be his best team yet. The Zags are top 11 in PPG, total assists, rebounds, free-throw makes, attempts, and three-point percentage. Gonzaga could be the number one overall seed and roll their way to only the school’s second ever National Championship appearance.
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