This season has been rough for New England. In a year where Cam Newton has thrown two touchdowns (1.5 TD%) and seven interceptions (5.3 INT%), Pats fans are missing the GOAT. Even though he has thrown 18 touchdowns and four interceptions, Tom Brady couldn’t save this season for New England.
Comparing the Quarterbacks
The quarterback is the lifeblood of an offense. If the man under center is struggling, so will your team. Obviously, there are some outliers, but that’s a pretty safe rule. I could talk about Tom’s TD% (6.7) compared to his INT% (1.5), but we know he’s been better than Cam. The GOAT, however, is in a much better situation than Newton.
I could go more in depth, but even if the roles were reversed, Tom Brady would not save the season for New England.
The Offensive Line
Tampa Bay had a lot of questions coming into the season related to their offensive line. According to Football Outsiders (I’m not paying for PFF), the Bucs had the 22nd ranked pass protection in 2019, with an adjusted sack rate of 7.6%. Their run game was actually ranked lower at 23rd. For comparison, New England had an adjusted sack rate of 5.3%, ranking fifth, and an o-line run ranking coming in at ninth. What about this year?
2020 Rankings
Both teams actually improved on the ground in 2020 (so far), with Tampa moving up to 12th and New England up to fifth. The pass protection, however, tells an interesting story. Tampa, the team with all the questions about the big men up front, is tied for first with the Rams and Titans. All three have given up eight sacks, with an adjusted sack rate of 3.9%. To find New England on that list, you’d have to go all the way down to 23rd, giving up 13 sacks for an adjusted sack rate of 7.6% (the same as Tampa Bay last season).
Some would attribute this to Tom Brady consistently being one of the more competitive, intelligent, and prepared QBs in the NFL every year. I don’t buy it. Tom is a 43 year old pocket passer known for being as slow as molasses. Cam Newton has the exact opposite reputation, and has about half the attempts (268 vs 131) for this very reason. Considering Cam doesn’t pass the ball as much, why is he sacked so much more? Could it be he’s forced to hold onto the ball longer due to his receivers?
The Wide Receivers
Who would you rather throw to: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Damiere Byrd or Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and (now) Antonio Brown? Let’s break it down before we make our decision.
I’m going to be looking mainly at two stats: DYAR (or defense adjusted yard above replacement) and catch rate. DYAR is basically a number used to find a receivers total value. I may also mention DVOA, which is value over average, or per-play value added.
Comparing the Teams
I sorted it by team, but the catch rate also lines up well. Boy, this looks bad for New England. New England receivers are trash, and it’s no surprise Cam has been struggling. Their receiver with the best overall value is a net zero, while the Bucs “worst” receiver has a 99 DYAR. The Patriots best receiver is Jakobi Meyers, but he does not see a high volume of passes (seven on the year).
The low catch rate of New England has a few factors: a lack of separation, drops, and an inaccurate quarterback. Well, New England has all three right now. Yes, a quarterback change could fix one of those, but not all three. For that reason, even Tom Brady could not save the season in New England.
As much as I love Tom Brady, he can’t save New England. It’s time for Bill to blow it up and try again next year. Try to drop two to the Jets and get Trevor Lawrence and get some offensive pieces in the draft. Disagree with my conclusion? Let me know on Twitter (@BellyUpKev), and check out my other stuff for some more takes.
