The UK’s Callum Smith (27-0, 19 KOs) will take on the biggest challenge of his career in Canelo Alvarez (53-1-2, 36 KOs), but it’s Smith who could prove to be a tall order for Canelo.
The two men faced off as per usual for fighters after the weigh-in. The height differential between to the two men was striking.
Weigh in complete. ✔️
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) December 18, 2020
Tomorrow, two of the best meet in the ring. #CaneloSmith pic.twitter.com/9DwV2HSQJF
Callum Smith is 6’3″, Canelo Alvarez 5’8″.
Smith’s reach is 78″, Canelo’s 70.5″.
It’s not always the tallest guy with the longer arms that wins, and it might not be this time either, but Canelo has never faced someone so demonstrably bigger than he is.
Canelo’s last fight came more than a year ago in November 2019 when he spectacularly knocked out Sergey Kovalev. Kovalev was bigger, but not in the way that Callum is. Kovalev was using his size effectively but tired late and Canelo put him down.
Smith has the wingspan of a damn whooping crane and a jab to match.
Canelo vs. Smith by the punch numbers. ?#CaneloSmith pic.twitter.com/p8BJl8jvH4
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) December 18, 2020
How Canelo Can Win
Canelo Alvarez is one of the best of his generation. He currently holds world titles in two weight classes (middleweight & super middleweight) and until he relinquished the world title he took from Sergey Kovalev he had held world titles in three different weight classes concurrently.
His career is already HOF worthy and he’s only 30-years-old.
That being said, he isn’t in against a soft chinned Kovalev this time. Callum Smith is exceptionally long.
Canelo cannot simply sit back and rely on his counter punching. He has to use his low center of gravity and muscle his way into Smith’s chest.
Canelo has to smother Smith and not be kept at a distance.
He needs to beat the body and force Smith to bring his head down. If Canelo can force Smith out of his comfort zone and into bringing his head and shoulders down in an attempt to protect his body Canelo can and will take advantage.
How Smith Can Win
Canelo is an exceptionally tough individual. In his two bouts with Gennady Golovkin, he took numerous solid punches from one of the most viciously efficient punchers in the sport.
Despite his size advantage I don’t see Smith knocking Canelo down, or out.
Smith has a tremendous advantage in height and reach and he needs to utilize them. One of Smith’s biggest weapons is his jab and that’s against other super middleweights larger than Canelo Alvarez.
Being a solid 7″ taller than Canelo simply means his height and reach advantage makes his jab even more devastating.
My game plan for Smith would be one thing:
Jab
Prediction
Many boxing pundits give Smith very little chance to win, and honestly, I can’t blame them. Personally, I could see Canelo working his way inside and terrorizing Smith to the body.
My official prediction is Callum Smith who is large (even for super middleweight) will be an exceptionally tall order for Canelo Alvarez.
Canelo’s counter punching ability is supreme, but you can’t hit what you can’t reach.
Callum Smith over Canelo Alvarez via close split decision.
The Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith fight card begins at 8 pm and can be seen on DAZN.
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