It’s officially baseball season! Well, it would be if the league and players could stop squabbling. When the regular season eventually starts (or if it starts, if you’re pessimistic), there are a few players who’ll look to rebound after tough 2021 outings. As is inevitable, some players fell below expectations last year. Some are superstars, others merely All-Stars, but all are in need of some revitalization. For many of these players, their success is integral to how their team performs in the upcoming season. Not only that, but there is fair reason to consider everyone below a threat to come back strong in 2022.
Let’s take a look at some of the biggest rebound candidates for the 2022 season.
Anthony Rendon is Due for a Rebound in Anaheim
For the better part of the 2010s onward, Anthony Rendon has been a top third baseman in all of baseball. With a career OPS+ of 126 to go along with 32 DRS and a 34.9 UZR, he’s been a monster on both sides of the ball so far. In his second season as an Angel though, Rendon had an outing to forget. He suffered multiple serious injuries that took him out for 104 games. For the time he was on the field, he also left a lot to be desired. His power was completely sapped, dropping over a hundred points in slugging en route to a lackluster 94 OPS+. Fielding was also brutal in this stretch, likely hampered by the myriad of ailments.
The good news is that Rendon’s struggles were likely tied to nagging injuries. Rendon himself was relieved to find a solution to his hip issues through surgery, citing the constant pain as a reason for his lackluster performance. There’s nothing to really suggest that a change in approach or natural decline hurt Rendon either, leaving him open for a comeback. The Angels will need him in prime form to be a true threat in the AL West. Slotted in with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, Rendon solidifies a truly terrifying heart of the order for Los Angeles while locking down defense at the hot corner. Assuming injuries don’t continue to haunt him, he looks primed to give the Angels the third baseman they paid for next year.
Alex Bregman is Too Good to Continue Struggling
It feels a little wrong to have Alex Bregman as a player needing to rebound. Last year, he still posted a 113 OPS+. Per Statcast, he was one of the league’s best at limiting strikeouts, whiffs, and chases. His defense was merely okay, but in terms of OAA, it’s up to snuff with his usual numbers. So what’s the catch? Bregman has played well above those levels in years past. From 2018 onward, he’s been an MVP-caliber player. His 2019 season in particular was a monster campaign that saw him finish second only to Trout. In that year, his 163 OPS ranked third in the AL and he led all hitters with 9 WAR. With that context, his 2021 wasn’t bad, just underwhelming.
Like Rendon before him, Bregman’s relative struggles can be traced to injuries. He suffered a quad injury that took him out for two months, but it’s the wrist that seemed like the biggest factor. After his major struggles in the World Series, Bregman underwent surgery on his right wrist so he’d be ready in time for Spring Training. That said, it’s hard to see him getting right back into MVP form, however. A rebound from Bregman might see him somewhere between the sky-high 2019 season and his less-elite 2020 and 2021 seasons. That’s not a bad thing though. Even at that caliber, he’d still be one of the elites in the game and a definite All-Star. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him back at that level.
Kyle Hendricks Needs to Get Back to Being the Professor
Call this Cubs fan bias, but Kyle Hendricks is still a criminally underrated starting pitcher in the league. From his debut in 2014 through the 2020 season, Hendricks has been borderline elite with a 3.12 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and 1.105 WHIP while accumulating 21.4 WAR. He’s a master at defying expectations with his low velocity and pinpoint precision. In 2021, however, he had his first real disaster season. In 32 starts, he gave up the most hits out of all qualified starters in the majors while posting a 4.77 ERA, his worst by nearly a full run. While he still ranked high in terms of keeping exit velocities low, his missed locations led to fewer strikeouts and more barrels.
The Cubs need Hendricks to rebound in order to have a real shot in the National League Central this year. He’s a crucial piece in a somewhat thin rotation also headed by Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley. With little behind him, Hendricks playing at his usual level solidifies the top of the rotation at the very least while putting less pressure on the questionable bullpen. It seems reasonable to see him bounce back too. With no real worrying injuries, it may simply take some practice and video review for Hendricks to get back in form.
A Jeff McNeil Rebound Would Solidify the Mets Lineup
There are a few candidates for a rebound in the Mets lineup alone. Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, and Michael Conforto all fell short of expectations in 2021. The collapse of Jeff McNeil was arguably the most troubling, however. McNeil showed a ton of promise in his first few years in the majors as a second base/utility guy with fantastic contact skills. He averaged a 139 OPS+ across his first 248 games between 2018 and 2020. That number is buoyed by an excellent batting average of .319 with a decent .501 SLG. McNeil didn’t even sniff those numbers in 2021, posting an 88 OPS+ with an uncharacteristic .250 batting average. Every bit of his struggles were backed up by statcast too. His xwOBA of .315 fell well short of his 2019 and 2020 mark, landing him in the bottom half of all players.
The biggest thing going for McNeil is the skillset. That high contact approach is one that typically ages better than a high power one. Where McNeil needs to make improvements is in hitting more line drives and fly balls instead of ground balls and pop-ups. He posted the second lowest line drive percentage of his career coupled with the highest ground ball percentage. There’s also a bit of bad luck involved as most of McNeil’s expected numbers ended up lower than what he actually recorded. He just has a lot going for him that makes him an easy candidate to make a rebound.
DJ LeMahieu Won’t Be an MVP, But He Can Be Good Again
DJ LeMahieu’s first two seasons in the Bronx were nothing short of spectacular. Two top ten MVP finishes in a row (one in the top three!), two Silver Sluggers, and an All-Star appearance make up a really impressive tenure as a Yankee. 2021 didn’t exactly live up to those standards though. His 146 OPS+ across 2019 and 2020 dipped to a paltry 97. Fears of decline are starting to set in as well as LeMahieu is about to turn 34.
Like McNeil, LeMahieu’s skill set isn’t one that’s likely to age poorly. Unlike McNeil though, LeMahieu may have been even more affected by bad luck. His Statcast page shows a rather large discrepancy in his expected and actual numbers. In particular, his wOBA of .202 against offspeed pitches fell wildly short of his xwOBA of .305. Across the board, he really should’ve been better than his numbers. He also kept his strikeout rate low and generally still posted good exit velocity numbers. His Statcast page is just as painted in red as previous years minus his xSLG. It’s hard to see him being the MVP candidate he was in previous seasons where he outperformed his expected numbers, but a very solid, top-of-the-order contact bat seems totally reasonable.
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