Why haven’t the Red Sox offered Rafael Devers a contract extension yet?
Thanks to Major League Baseball’s lockout, Chaim Bloom and Co. have been busy. Baseball’s entire offseason has been condensed to just a few weeks instead of a few months. Plus, there is no urgency for the Red Sox to get an extension done right now; Devers is still under team control for this season and next. Boston can afford to wait until the end of the season before seriously engaging with him on an extension.
Also, Xander Bogaerts is expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season and likely won’t take a hometown discount a second time, especially in light of recent deals handed out to other middle infielders this offseason.
Rafael Devers’ Contract Extension Talks With the Red Sox Might Not Be as Simple as “Pay the Man”
Devers has become a great hitter, but most metrics generally consider him a subpar defensive third baseman, despite showing more consistency on defense, if not a modest improvement, over the last couple of seasons.
Since 2019, Devers ranks 39th out of 40 third-basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (-22) and 22nd in Outs Above Average (0). From 2017-18, he ranked 37th out of 40 in DRS (-16) and last out of 38 qualified third basemen in OAA (-14).
That better defensive consistency has helped him tap into his offensive potential, leading to a breakout 2019 season in which he hit .311/361/.555/.916 with a 132 OPS+, 54 doubles, 32 HR and 115 RBI. He had an equally good 2021.
Among third basemen with a minimum of 800 plate appearances since 2019, Devers is tied for first in games played (369), third in home runs (81), first in RBI (271), seventh in wRC+ (129), and fourth in fWAR (11.1). He also ranks fourth in Baserunning Runs (3.3), first in Win Probability Added (6.22), third in average exit velocity (92.7 mph), sixth in barrel rate (11.3%), fourth in hard-hit rate (48.1%), and has the 18th lowest strikeout rate (20.4%).
Negotiations Get Complicated if the Red Sox are, in fact, Concerned About Devers’ Defense
Speculation that Devers would eventually have to move off third base has seemingly surrounded him his entire career. And what any Rafael Devers contract extension could look like will vary based on the position he would theoretically switch to. But he is really only a corner infielder or designated hitter.
Notable third base contracts:
Anthony Rendon: signed a seven-year, $245 million contract (2020-26) with the Los Angeles Angels in December of 2019.
Manny Machado: signed a 10-year, $300 million contract (2019-28) with the San Diego Padres in February of 2019.
Nolan Arenado: signed his eight-year, $260 million extension (2019-26) in February of 2019 while still with the Colorado Rockies.
What the Dominican-born lefty hitter doesn’t have that the above third basemen do is above-average defense.
Notable designated hitter contracts:
J.D. Martinez: signed a five-year, $110 million contract (2018-22) with the Red Sox late in spring training of 2018.
Kyle Schwarber: signed a four-year, $79 million contract (2022-25) with the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason.
Nick Castellanos: (only added here because I find it hard to envision him being an everyday outfielder) signed with the Phillies for five years, $100 million (2022-26) this offseason.
Devers will not be the Red Sox first baseman as long as Triston Casas is around and lives up to expectations. It’s also unlikely that he would be better than Casas defensively at first base. But to cover all bases, I have included notable first base contracts.
Notable first base contracts:
Matt Olson: signed an eight-year, $168 extension (2022-29) with the Atlanta Braves after being traded by the Oakland Athletics after the lockout.
Joey Votto: signed a 10-year, $225 million extension (2014-23) with the Cincinnati Reds in April of 2012.
Freddie Freeman: signed a six-year, $162 million contract (2022-27) this offseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Paul Goldschmidt: signed a five-year, $130 million extension (2020-24) with the St. Louis Cardinals in March of 2019.
The first basemen above were some of the best hitters among their peers before signing their deals, but they also were (most still are) among the best defenders at their position.
It’s possible, but not likely, that the Red Sox don’t view Devers as their third baseman long-term. He is still only 25, so he has some room to continue to grow.
Xander Bogaerts is also a potential factor in any move off third base for Devers. Bogaerts is not great himself at shortstop and will probably move positions too, maybe to second base, maybe to third base, or even left field if he stays. But perhaps he won’t move off shortstop; With Trevor Story and Devers having good range, it will be easier for Boston to hide his defensive deficiencies.
What’s the Gist?
There might be a few things holding up a Rafael Devers contract extension. First is the lockout. Because of MLB’s lockout of its players, all offseason business has had to take place over weeks instead of months. Chaim Bloom and Co. have more pressing matters than scrambling to extend a player they have two seasons of team control over.
The second is Devers’ defense and potential questions about his long-term viability as a third baseman. Devers has become more consistent defensively over the last couple of seasons, if not improved some; however, he is still generally considered a subpar third baseman. If the Red Sox do not believe he can play third base long-term, which is unlikely, the value of any extension will change and vary based on position.
Despite the defensive questions, though, Devers isn’t only one of the best offensive third basemen in MLB since 2019; he’s one of the best hitters, period, in that span.
He will get paid. It’s just… how much?
It’s not the end of the world that the Red Sox have not even offered Rafael Devers a contract extension at this time. That said, Boston cannot screw this up.
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