The Los Angeles Angels have two of the best MLB players right now in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. They also have Anthony Rendon who, when healthy, was right there with them in his prime. Add in other solid guys like Brandon Marsh and Jared Walsh and you have a pretty solid offense. So how has Taylor Ward been the best out of all of those names mentioned?
Ward came up in 2018 and has been relatively unremarkable since then. The former first-rounder had a career 89 OPS+ and a dreadful -0.5 WAR through 2021. He started showing signs of life last year in 65 games, but nothing that would suggest he was a world-conquering slugger. So far though, it’s hard to argue the results. He has a marvelous 2.3 WAR so far to bring his career back up to the positive end. Of his superstar teammates, the outfielder has graded out as the best so far both at a base level and under the hood.
Taylor Ward Is Destroying the Ball With Reckless Abandon
Trout, the de facto best player in the league, currently holds a 218 OPS+. It’s otherworldly, but it pales in the face of Ward’s unfathomable 247 OPS+ across 30 games so far. Obviously, that is not a lot of time to evaluate, but holding that .370/.480/.713 line to lead the league in on-base and OPS even that far is impressive. Moreover, it’s starting to reflect the success he had in the minors. In AAA, he smacked around other prospects to the tune of a .979 OPS, but now he’s finally bringing those top prospect results to the bigs.
Statcast backs up Ward’s scorching hot start too. He’s in the 99th percentile in chase rate, xwOBA, and walk percentage. Better yet, he rates in the mid to high nineties in xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and more. In terms of barrels per plate appearance, his 10.7 percent rates around hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Rafael Devers, two prolific sluggers. He’s not hitting the ball as hard as some of his peers on that list, but he makes up for it with consistent, quality contact. There’s not really any one pitch he struggles with either. His lowest xwOBA by a WIDE margin is .348 against breaking pitches, but a .541 xSLG still suggests an ability to crush even those. What’s really crazy is just how wildly apart his expected numbers are compared to last year.
Is the Angels Outfielder’s Breakout for Real?
Even if Ward is merely the beneficiary of some luck, that doesn’t change the fact that his quality of contact has skyrocketed this year. Even since last year, his xwOBA has skyrocketed over 130 points. Really, just about all of his expected numbers have received a jolt this season. On the other hand, he is benefitting from a fairly absurd BABIP of .425. Even with that consideration, he’s hitting the ball well enough to endure a hit to the luck and still be an elite hitter.
It is fair to note that Statcast isn’t always the best judge of performance. There are some hitters who make absurd contact but aren’t superstar caliber. Take Patrick Wisdom of the Cubs, for example, whose average exit velocities and barrels per plate appearance rank in that superstar range. However, his slash line pales to that of the stars his contact quality ranks among. What is making Ward far more promising, however, is that great boost in strikeout and walk rate. He’s benefiting from a lower swing and whiff percentage than ever before, suggesting an ability to be more selective with his pitches. With a low chase rate and high zone contact rate, he’s not getting beat in or out of the strike zone.
I’m fairly optimistic about this as a real breakout. Players don’t magically go on streaks of extreme discipline. Nor does such an insane change in expected numbers come out of nowhere.
Ward’s Worth Watching as the Season Goes On
Ward is not going to keep up this level of production over an entire season. With more time and adjustment, those numbers will come back to Earth somewhat. However, he’s demonstrated some fundamental skills that BABIP can’t explain. He hits the ball hard, doesn’t chase, and is less prone to the strikeout than ever. Moreover, it’s a sign of his constant adjustment as he gets more experience at the major league level. 2021 teased his potential as his offense reached an above-average mark for the first time. Now, he seems to have achieved his best form.
Ward will be one to watch throughout the season to see how he adjusts as the league tries desperately to get him out. He’s slowed down a bit in May, but that “regression” only equates to a 1.113 OPS. It would be a major boon for the Angels to have another elite hitter amidst their ranks to help chase down Houston. Even if he falls off a bit as the months go on, Ward’s shown enough under the hood to inspire confidence in his future as an, at least, above-average major leaguer.
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