Back in 2019, two players shot into the stratosphere as some of the league’s best players. One was Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich coming off a breakout MVP campaign the previous year. The other, of course, was Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger. Since his 2017 NL Rookie of the Year campaign, where he set the NL rookie home run record, he’d been a rising star in the league. 2019 was different, though. Bellinger had a historic start to the year. In April alone, he racked up an absurd 88 total bases and 14 home runs with a 1.389 OPS. Although he couldn’t keep that level of production up, he ended the season with a 162 OPS+, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and, of course, an MVP.
Cut to 2022, and the unthinkable has happened. Bellinger is without a home after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. From 2020 onward, he put together a far bleaker 74 OPS+ in what should’ve been the prime of his career. His vaunted power was seemingly sapped after a string of injuries and other mechanical changes. Statcast saw both his hard hit and barrel percentages as well as his expected batting average, OBP, SLG, and wOBA go from among the league’s best to among its worst. By all measures, he has completely lost the magic.
It’s a truly unprecedented fall from grace. Yet, there is still hope for the 27-year-old outfielder. Teams will be all over him as a bounce-back option, and he still has things to offer beyond his bat. It’s worth examining the bizarre circumstances and what’s next for the former superstar.
Bellinger’s Non-Tender Is Unprecedented in Baseball History
To understand just how bizarre Bellinger’s fall from grace is, we can look back at the game’s history for some context. There are almost no players that are remotely close to what has happened to the lefty in recent years. The closest comparison seems to be infielder Zoilo Versalles. Like Bellinger, Veralles saw a precipitous decline after his AL MVP in 1965. He put together a 115 OPS+, earned a Gold Glove, and led all of baseball in doubles. Afterward, he was worth a brutal -0.7 bWAR and never even sniffed another season like that.
The problem with comparing these two, however, is that Versalles was also a far cry from Bellinger before his MVP season. By the time he earned his 2019 honor, the former Dodger already had two solid seasons under his belt. That includes his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2017, where he set the then-NL record for most home runs by a rookie. Versalles only had one other above-average hitting season before his MVP. He was still a positive WAR player across that time, but Bellinger had easily passed Versalles CAREER bWAR total by the end of 2019.
You could also look at the careers of other winners like Terry Pendleton or Josh Hamilton, but neither fits Bellinger’s case. His decline, especially from such a young age after so much success, is truly unique. Even with the bat falling off though, he’ll still have appeal for teams.
What Bellinger Can Still Offer to Teams
The real reason most teams will want to bring Bellinger into the fold is obvious – to try and bring back that bat. He’s reportedly only seeking a one-year deal to try and fix himself ahead of a larger contract. Should the issues prove too great, however, he does have some upside elsewhere. Although the offensive struggles have continued, his defense is still quite good. By Statcast, he ranked in the 92nd percentile in OAA last year with six in the outfield. He also graded out with 0 DRS last year and a UZR/150 of 0.8, though he’s traditionally been even better by those stats for his career. In total, he has a career of 4 UZR/150 and 34 DRS.
That defense alone is why he’ll still likely get a solid one-year offer in free agency. It’s especially important considering just how permanent his offensive decline is looking. If Statcast wasn’t enough of a red flag, projections are almost universally down on him for 2023. Steamer and FGDC both have him slashing .222/.295/.405 next year, which is still far from ideal. He isn’t devoid of power yet, still managing 19 home runs last year, but the offensive outlook isn’t good, barring some massive mechanical change.
Whatever team lands him will have a project on their hands. Luckily, he’ll have his pick of the litter there.
Everybody Wants to Take a Crack at Solving the Former MVP
Roughly eleven(!) teams are in on Bellinger at the time of writing for one reason or another. This early on, there’s no real traction with any one team, but Jon Heyman reports that the Giants, Cubs, and Astros all are in pursuit. The Blue Jays have also been mentioned as a potential suitor due to their lack of left-handed power. It’s even possible that the Dodgers themselves could bring back Bellinger. The whole reason they non-tendered him was to get off the hook for the $18 million he was projected to make this year. They could just re-sign him for a lower price tag. With so many potential suitors, he’ll likely go down as the most coveted non-tender in the sport’s history.
Wherever he goes, the story isn’t quite over for Bellinger. He still has the chance to get on the path to stardom that he’s since fallen off. His hopes hinge on this next contract, though. If he bounces back, 2020-22 will be a blip on the radar of an otherwise successful career. If not, he’ll be a topic for discussion for years to come among baseball minds as one of the most shocking downfalls in the sport’s history.
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