It hasn’t been only the offense that has sunk the Red Sox. Just about everything has gone wrong over the last month. The Sox have played bad baseball all around.
Oddly enough, the rotation has improved as the season has worn on. Starting pitching was the one part of this team that was supposed to be suspect.
Boston is pitching well, yet they still can’t win — the complete opposite of what most of us thought would happen: could the lineup overcome the pitching?
The bats started off so well — way better than expected — that what we’re seeing now is likely a steep, sharp, ugly decline back to reality.
Sox hitters couldn’t ever sustain their early-season production. They’re not this bad, either, though.
Hopefully, things start to level out soon. It can’t get any worse. Right?
Red Sox Offense Started Off Too Well
Embed from Getty ImagesThe first week-plus of 2023 started slow for most Red Sox hitters, with Adam Duvall doing the heavy lifting for the offense.
Then Duvall broke his wrist nine games in and was out for two months. Everyone but Casas got hot at the same time in response. Injury replacements, later on, stepped up, too.
The lineup was a force, top to bottom. Everyone kept the line moving.
Things looked much better than everyone expected. And then they won eight straight.
Everything was looking good for the Red Sox.
This Red Sox offense was second in runs (207), fifth in home runs (46), and first in doubles (79) through May 6. They hit .273/.345/.455/.800 with a 117 wRC+.
With runners in scoring position, Red Sox batters were second in runs (158) and hit .287/.367/.435/.802 with a 118 wRC+.
When runners were just on base, the Sox hit .295/.366/.476/.842 with a 128 wRC+ and were second in runs scored (185).
Boston hit into 27 double plays in their first 35 games.
What was once a potent lineup just disappeared.
Regression Hit Like a Ton of Bricks
Embed from Getty ImagesWe’ve seen nothing but disaster for over a month.
Since their eight-game winning streak ended on May 7, the offense ranks 26th in runs, 29th in home runs (28), and sixth in doubles (73). They are hitting .245/.317/.390/.708 with a 91 wRC+.
After watching this team, you would think their RISP numbers would be abysmal since then, but they’re not abysmal other than the runs scored (21st with 101 runs). Are the numbers down? Yes. But they’re not as bad as you would expect them to be.
However… since June 3, the bats are just .200/.275/.292/.567 with a 52 wRC+.
It’s with runners just on base — no matter where they are — that has been the Red Sox offense’s Achilles heel for over a month.
When runners are on base, this lineup is 25th in runs (112), hitting .220/.286/.342/.627 with a putrid 67 wRC+.
The Red Sox have hit into 31 double plays in their last 34 games. Way too many.
This offense is leaving boatloads of runners on base; it’s ridiculous. And they have scored three runs or less in 15 of their last 23 games (8-15).
There has been no grinding out of at-bats, keeping the line moving. All of that has gone away.
Not Much Good Offensively for Weeks
Embed from Getty Images- Rafael Devers – .210/.286/.407/.693, 4 doubles, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 8 walks, 18 strikeouts since May 20. He has four home runs in his last five games.
- Jarren Duran – .186/.240/.243/.483, 4 doubles, 5 RBI, 5 walks, 26 strikeouts since May 20. Duran seems like he’s coming out of his slump.
- Alex Verdugo – 14 games from May 21-June 7: .232/.313/.339/.652, 4 doubles, a triple, 5 RBI, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts. Dugie has been back to himself the last week.
- Justin Turner – May 19-June 8: .191/.250/.333/.583, 3 doubles, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 walks, 13 strikeouts. He is also back to himself the last week.
- Christian Arroyo last played May 6 before coming back June 5. He’s been hitting the ball well since his return.
- Pablo Reyes – .222/.256/.250/.506 since May 19. Reyes hadn’t played much until the last few games when Cora finally kicked Kiké off shortstop.
- Reese McGuire – .170/.220/.277/.497, 5 doubles, 2 RBI, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts since May 9. It might have something to do with him losing playing time.
- Connor Wong: .264/.339/.491/.830, 6 doubles, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 walks, 21 strikeouts since May 19.
- Triston Casas has done incrementally better since May began. He is still a weak spot in the lineup, no doubt, but he is unquestionably figuring things out.
- Enmanuel Valdez, now going off in Worcester, hit a big slump after being a significant contributor.
- Enrique Hernandez is doing offensively during this downturn about as well as he is for the season: .222/.297/.354/.651, 4 doubles, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 10 walks, 22 strikeouts since May 7.
- Duvall is back now. Hopefully, he will start helping.
- Masataka Yoshida hasn’t slumped nearly at all since 4/20. However, June has been his worst month: .225/.309/.286/.595, 3 doubles, 2 RBI, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts.
“We’ve had traffic and we’re working the counts. But obviously, we’re not scoring runs and we’re not finishing innings. The two-out hits are always important in this game and we’ve just got to find ways to get it going and finish the at-bats. The approach is still the same. We’re making contact. We’ve just got to keep grinding,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said about his offense’s struggles.
“At the end of the day for us, it’s all about swinging at good pitches. And we feel like we’re putting ourselves in a position to do that. I think the process is the same. … You can’t control where they’re playing and what they do out there. All you can control is what you swing at and impacting the baseball. That’s it,” Red Sox hitting coach Pete Fatse said about Boston’s offense.
Cora and Fatse are not totally off when they say that the Red Sox offense’s process is the same.
Through May 6, the offense had an 8.7 percent walk rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.2 percent barrel rate, 89 mph average exit velocity, and a 40 percent hard-hit rate.
Since May 7, their walk rate (nine percent), exit velocity (89 mph), barrel rate (seven percent), and hard-hit rate (41 percent) are all more or less the same as when the offense was one of the best in MLB.
These are only part of the so-called process, but still.
Duran, Dugie, Turner, Wong, and Arroyo are hitting the last week or so. Hopefully, Devers has broken out of his slump, Duvall gets going, and Yoshida turns it around. If all that happens, this Red Sox offense should level out and contribute to something resembling a watchable and entertaining team.
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