Where Have All the NFL Running Backs Gone?

The NFL has a running back problem. Let me rephrase that. The NFL has a problem with running backs. Beef, as the kids call it. Front offices across the league have said to every star running back, “You are replaceable.” This isn’t new, going back ten years, running backs have often been the lowest paid position group in the league. What has changed? The players are speaking out.

This is Criminal. Three of the best PLAYERS in the entire league, regardless of position. https://t.co/zDXRS5cGdu
— Christian McCaffrey (@CMC_22) July 17, 2023

At this point , just take the RB position out the game then . The ones that want to be great & work as hard as they can to give their all to an organization , just seems like it don’t even matter . I’m with every RB that’s fighting to get what they deserve . https://t.co/OgvBWZCKvn
— Derrick Henry  (@KingHenry_2) July 17, 2023

Side note: Derrick Henry is the last person on Earth I’d want beef with.

if this do not open your eyes you tripin https://t.co/XUf0EFPEsx
— Najee Harris (@ohthatsNajee22) July 18, 2023

Now, a lot of people are talking about how to fix this issue. But, as any good medical professional (which I am not) will tell you, we need to find the why before going to a cure. This is a symptom of how the NFL operates, but it is not the root cause. So, strap in NFL, Dr. Kev will see you now.

The Winning Teams Don’t Pay Running Backs

Problem is your capping out your ass should saquon have been paid sure but to say it’s hard to win without a top rb is bullshit considering the last 10 Super Bowl winners had a running back making on average 1 mil a year pic.twitter.com/JK1CFlHDnG
— broth19 (@saquadsbarkley1) July 17, 2023

Every NFL franchise has two goals: make money and win the Super Bowl. Usually, those goals contradict, except when it comes to the running back position. By saving money at that position, you can spend it elsewhere. On top of that, you don’t have to spend premium draft capital on a running back, nor do you have to pray a former high draft pick makes it through the season. Pacheco was a seventh round pick. Williams, Blount, and Anderson were all undrafted. Why is that?

There is a Surplus of Serviceable NFL Running Backs

We are going to take off our doctor hat for a second, and look at some macroeconomics. As someone who got a four on the AP exam a decade ago, I feel qualified to discuss this. Why are too many running backs a bad thing?

In the words of Ren, “Due to the laws of supply and demand, nobody wants to buy shells if there’s loads on the sand.” Basically, if you flood the market with a product, the price plummets. By having 2022 rushing TD leader Jamaal Williams available in the fourth round, you’d better be special to get drafted highly. And by the end of that rookie deal, you are perceived as used goods. If you make it that far.

The Short Shelf Life

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The average NFL career is 3.3 years. The longest average NFL career goes to kickers and punters at 4.87 years. The lowest? Running backs at 2.57. If you play running back and get drafted at 21, there is a good chance your career is over before you can rent a car. There is a greater risk to giving a player a long contract for a lot of money if they won’t make it halfway through the deal. I am not saying it is fair, I am not saying you are getting the value you put in, but the depreciation rate drops positional value immensely. Especially when there are more important positions.

The NFL is a Passing League

It is hard to argue someone should be paid more when their job is not the focal point of a business. If humans became immortal, doctors would be in the soup line. If the government said “Who needs tax code,” accounts would be paid as book keepers. Your skill set is only as valuable as the market determines. As passing becomes more important, teams will invest in those positions (QB/WR) and positions to stop it (EDGE/CB). And fans love it. They want the high scoring, the dramatic down field throws, and the big hits on the QB. As time goes on, it will get a lot worse before it gets better. But who are the people who got us to the modern NFL?

Who is to Blame?

It is hard to find individuals who killed an entire industry. Usually it’s groups or just innovation. Let’s look at the villains of the running back industry.

Le’Veon “Pay Me” Bell

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Bell hammered home the point that running backs are replaceable by sitting out the 2018 season. During his absence, James Conner became a solid NFL running back. James Conner’s Pro Bowl season showed the NFL you can replace your All-Pro RB with a second year third round pick. This has snowballed, showing the NFL that you can win a Super Bowl with a seventh rounder as your primary back.

NFL Scouting Departments

Now, obviously I have generalized the running back position a lot. “You can find guys late,” “they fall off fast.” Obviously, there are players who buck this trend. Christian McCaffrey was a first rounder and, even with injuries, is a solid player in year seven. Raheem Mostert put up solid numbers at 30 years old. There are plenty of late round RBs who didn’t hit. It isn’t an exact science, and running backs do have a shorter leash, but scouting departments inability to identify talent has lead to the downfall of the NFL running back.

Jeff “8-8” Fisher and Bill “They Bullied My Precious Boy” Polian

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January 2004 was a simpler time. “Hey Ya!” was the number one song on the radio. Facebook launched. The European Union was about to add ten new members. People didn’t hate the Patriots. Well, some did, like Jeff Fisher and Bill Polian. After Super Bowl XXXVIII, two teams knocked out by the Patriots (the Titans and the Colts) felt the Pat’s defense was a little too physical. Was their response to get more physical back? Fight fire with fire? No, of course not. That sounded hard. Instead, the two members of the Competition Committee decided to install the “Ty Law Rule,” cracking down on defensive pass interference. With this change, it allowed the passing game to explode, essentially killing the running back position.