Kansas turned out to be. the eventful race we all thought it would be for the NASCAR playoffs. There was significant movement along the bubble, and #45 Tyler Reddick secured his spot in the next round with a victory. The Bristol night race shares a similar opportunity as Kansas and is a fan-favorite race for everybody. The last time they were on this track, Christopher Bell emerged victorious in the dirt. In last season’s playoff, #17 Chris Buescher took the checkered flag. Buescher is currently the hottest driver in the playoff picture, and he’ll look to deliver a repeat effort.
Like last weekend, the bubble is all anybody is keeping an eye on. This is the last chance for the bottom four drivers to escape the round of 16 eliminations and go on to the round of 12. There are some big-time names in the red, so let’s go over them, and evaluate their chances ahead of Saturday night.
#34 Michael McDowell (-40)
Embed from Getty ImagesWithout a win, it looks like we’ve reached the end of the road for Michael McDowell’s Cinderella season. He squeaked in with a win at the Indy Road Course, but the playoffs haven’t faired great for him either. He finished 32nd at Darlington and 26th at Kansas last weekend. Fumbling great starting position in both races at 6th and 7th. In four races at Bristol, he has one top-10, and he’ll need a lot more than that to dig himself out of this 40-point hole. I hate to call it the end for such a likable driver, but the time may be here for McDowell.
#47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-20)
Embed from Getty ImagesRicky Stenhouse continues to flail around sitting on his Daytona 500 win back in February. Not many people were picking him to make it out of the Round of 16. Frankly, it doesn’t look like he’ll do it without a win at -20 below the cutline. He finished 16th at Darlington and 23rd at Kansas last weekend. Stenhouse was fine in 2023, winning the Daytona 500 isn’t nothing. But he hasn’t done anything since. It’ll be an early exit for Stenhouse here unless he pulls it off at Bristol, where in 18 races he’s posted four top-five finishes. So it’s not impossible, but the trends don’t bode well for him.
#23 Bubba Wallace (-19)
Embed from Getty ImagesI think we all figured Wallace’s best chance to advance in the NASCAR Playoffs was to take the win at Kansas. Unfortunately for him, it was his teammate Reddick who took victory lane, and Wallace placed 32nd after an on-track incident that left him in the dust. Bubba Wallace was always a long shot for the post-season, but it was fun while it lasted. The #23 car needs a win here like everybody else to advance, the gap I fear is just too large to make it all up in one race. In eight races he has one top-10 finish, and that was all the way back in 2020. Wallace’s run might just be up here, but he made progress in 2023. We’ll see if he can build on that next season.
#19 Martin Truex Jr (-7)
Embed from Getty ImagesWho would’ve thought that Truex would be in this position ahead of the final race of the Round of 16? The #19 car had a really unfortunate wreck on lap four of Kansas and was done for the day much earlier than anybody would’ve predicted. Now he sits as the first man out of the bubble, but it’s not an unobtainable goal. He’s just got to finish seven points higher than Harvick at Bristol or just win. He’s never won at Bristol, but in 32 races he’s got two top-fives and two other top-10s. We’ll see if Truex can make something of it, or if the regular season champ gets the boot much earlier than any of us could’ve thought. Dig deep, #19 team. You can’t go out like this.
#4 Kevin Harvick (+7)
Embed from Getty ImagesLet me just say it again, this will be Harvick’s last time in the NASCAR playoffs as a full-time driver. And a Round of 16 exit is a real possibility if Truex shines and Harvick is even just mediocre. Seven points isn’t an impossible task. So Harvick is at serious risk of having a less than honorable exit to his NASCAR career. The Harvick vs. Truex race will be one to watch at Bristol. It’s a track I give the edge to Harvick, who has won here three times in 42 races, finishing in the top five 11 other times. Look out for #4 vs #19 all race long.
#22 Joey Logano (+12)
Embed from Getty ImagesLogano is at a yellow-level risk of an early exit from the NASCAR playoffs. At +12 you can certainly be at a worse spot. But an early wreck like the one that struck Truex in Kansas last weekend can really send that to a different level if both Truex and Harvick have fantastic races and send the defending champ packing. If he finishes this race in decent fashion and Truex and Harvick don’t blow him out of the water on Saturday night, he should be fine. But you can never say never in this sport. I’ve at least learned that much through my first year.
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