We’ve reached the end of the Round of 12, ladies and gentlemen. The NASCAR Playoffs will push on into the Round of 8 after a brief stop at the Charlotte Roval. The #12 car with Ryan Blaney prevailed at Talladega and is set for the next round regardless of the outcome, joining William Byron in that company. Everybody else? Some drivers are safer than others, to say the least.
Let’s go over the drivers below the cutline and the closest ones that can’t afford a mistake. It’ll be tight and competitive the whole way through. So let’s dive right in and see what we’re looking at come Sunday afternoon in Charlotte!
#8 Kyle Busch (-26)
Embed from Getty ImagesKyle Busch was the victim of a collision with Ross Chastain last weekend at Talladega. He wasn’t able to finish the race strong, netting P25. Busch now finds himself in a deep hole. Busch hasn’t quite had the speed or consistency that was present at the beginning of the year. He’s got just one top-10 finish in the post-season at Kansas with a P7. Last year at the Roval though, Busch was great. He placed third in 2022 and fourth in 2021. The NASCAR Playoffs haven’t been kind to the 2-time champ in 2023, but you can’t ever count out KFB when he’s in the running.
#1 Ross Chastain (-10)
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter finishing second at Texas, Chastain DNF’d at Talladega after trying to thread the needle at the end of stage one and wrecking after the hole quickly closed. -10 isn’t a death sentence by any means though. It’s very possible this road course has some weird variables thrown around and Chastain puts together a solid day. In four races though, Chastain hasn’t finished any higher than 22nd. He’ll need to do better than that to make a serious run at the next round.
#23 Bubba Wallace (-9)
Embed from Getty ImagesWallace making it this far was a surprise to a lot of people. A pleasant one for some, an annoyance for others. Regardless though, the #23 car has been a great watch this season and into the post-season. Unfortunately for him, he may meet his elimination to a known enemy; road courses. His average finish at the road courses around the cup series is around 24th, and the Roval is actually his best one. Wallace finished P7 here in 2022 and 14th in 2021. It’s daunting at face value, but the road for Bubba Wallace to sneak in is right there. We’ll see if the miracle run can make it another round.
#45 Tyler Reddick (-2)
Embed from Getty ImagesWhen anybody uses the term “Road Course Warrior”, Reddick is probably the first name that should come to mind. The driver of the #45 car is absolutely electric at these tracks, with an average finish of 12.6. At the Roval specifically, he’s put up P2, P8, and P12 in three races run. It’s expected he’ll be a front-runner here in Charlotte and being only -2, he doesn’t need much to move onto the next round. Just don’t screw up.
#6 Brad Keselowski (+2)
Embed from Getty ImagesKeselowski is another driver whose day was ended prematurely at Talladega. Starting in the top five he was a favorite to run at the front with teammate Chris Buescher and the other dominant Fords. With the accident though, he finished 32nd and has only a two-point cushion over the cutoff line. At the Roval, Keselowski hasn’t posted a finish inside the top 10 since 2019 when he finished P5. He’ll need a solid day to fend off Reddick assuming that most of the drivers ahead of him are safe. We’ll see what happens on Sunday.
#5 Kyle Larson (+15)
Embed from Getty ImagesIf not for getting taken out at Texas and finishing P31, There’s a solid chance that Larson is much higher on the standings than +15. He’s done a great job in the NASCAR Playoffs so far. Two top fives and a win at Darlington in the Southern 500, and finishing 15th in the all-out brawl at Talladega. The Roval wasn’t kind to the #5 car in 2022. Larson finished 35th, though netting P3 and P6 in the first two stages. But, he did get the win in 2021 to send him on his way to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. We’ll see if he can join teammate William Byron in the round of eight with another strong performance in Charlotte this weekend.
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