If we learned one thing from the 2023 Red Sox, it should be that Tanner Houck isn’t a starter.
He proved that all by himself.
Every one of Houck’s starts was as predictable. Whenever he faced a lineup for the third time, he completely lost it despite dominating the first two times.
He demonstrated no tangible consistency nor showed any signs of improvements or adjustments as the season progressed.
Even for a fifth-starter, what Houck did in ’23 wasn’t good enough.
It’s not a fluky season thing, either. Houck’s performed like this as a starter his entire MLB career with the Red Sox.
Tanner is arguably the worst back-end starter on his own team (more on that below and in another upcoming article).
If the Red Sox truly and honestly want to improve their rotation in 2024, Houck can’t be part of it.
Tanner Houck doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter. He was given a full-time opportunity and didn’t seize it. It’s past time to abandon the failed experiment.
Tanner Houck as Starter Failure Wasn’t a One-off
Embed from Getty ImagesTanner Houck pitched to a 5.01 ERA over 106 innings in 21 starts in 2023. In seven of his 21 starts, Houck pitched five innings, allowing three or more runs six times.
The 27-year-old made seven starts of more than five innings, unable to complete six innings four times. And in three of those four games, he allowed four runs or more.
Houck allowed four or more runs eight times, five times in starts of five innings or more.
He completed six innings five times and pitched seven innings once.
The St. Louis, Missouri native had a 7.93 ERA in innings four through six with a .906 opponent’s OPS against. He pitched to a 2.71 ERA in innings one through three with a .605 opponent’s OPS against.
The consistently predictable yet inconsistent Houck’s nemesis was the third time through the order, a point at which he allowed a .937 opponent OPS.
These performances are not just a one-off occurrence, a fluky season — this has been a trend throughout Houck’s MLB career with the Red Sox.
In 41 career starts, Houck pitched five innings 13 times, allowing three or more runs seven times and allowing four or more runs five times.
He has 25 career starts of more than five innings, allowing three or more runs 13 times and allowing four or more runs seven times.
Houck has given up four or more runs in 21 career starts.
It’s the same story for his career in the fourth through sixth innings (5.73 ERA, .772 OPS against), the first through third innings (2.53 ERA, .571 OPS against), and the third time through the order (.957 OPS against).
Kutter Crawford Better Suited for the Rotation
Embed from Getty ImagesKutter Crawford is better suited for the rotation than Houck. Plain and simple. He showed a lot more promise.
Crawford made 23 starts in 2023 with a 4.51 ERA over 107.2 innings; four were of the five-inning variety, all with three runs or less allowed.
He pitched more than five innings eight times, going six in five of those eight starts, allowing three runs or more only once.
He allowed four or more runs six times overall.
The Florida native’s fourth through sixth innings numbers were better than Houck’s (5.32 ERA, .777 opponents OPS). Conversely, Crawford’s first through third innings numbers weren’t as good as Houck’s but were still more than good enough for a starter (3.65 ERA, .621 opponents OPS).
I will admit Crawford’s third-time-through-the-order numbers (1.142 opponents OPS) were worse than Houck’s; however, keep in mind Crawford’s 2023 numbers as detailed above.
Like Houck, the 27-year-old Crawford’s ’23 continues a career trend for him as a starting pitcher.
He has 36 career starts, going five innings seven times while allowing more than two runs only once in those seven starts.
He has pitched more than five innings 13 times, allowing three or more runs four times, and pitching six innings in 9 of those 13 games.
Crawford has allowed four or more runs in 13 career starts.
Kutter has a career 5.03 ERA (better than Houck) and .794 opponents OPS against (barely worse than Houck) in the fourth through sixth innings; a 4.42 ERA and .683 opponents OPS against (both worse than Houck) in the first through third innings; and opponents have a 1.069 OPS against (barely worse than Houck) him the third time through for his career.
Crawford doesn’t hit that brick wall, hence their distinct differences despite admittedly more than a few similarities on paper.
Houck’s Value to the Red Sox Is in the Bullpen
Embed from Getty ImagesTanner Houck isn’t useless to the Red Sox because he can’t be a starter On the contrary, Houck has already proven he is a shutdown reliever and can even close games.
Houck started his bullpen tenure in 2022 as a multi-inning reliever three or four games in, earning his way to the closer role by early June (saving eight of nine games). The back injury requiring offseason surgery shut him down in early August.
From May 29 to August 2, 2022, Tanner had a 1.71 ERA with 24 strikeouts and seven walks over 26.1 innings. Opponents hit just .227/.299/.289/.588 against him.
For the season, he had a 2.70 ERA with 15 walks and 43 strikeouts over 43.1 innings as a reliever in ’22. Opponents hit .214/.298/.289/.587 against him.
In 53.2 career innings as a reliever, Houck has a 2.68 ERA with 21 walks and 57 strikeouts. Opponents have hit just .206/.297/.273/.570 against him.
Some numbers from his 2023 season and from his career as a starter suggest his bullpen success could continue.
The 27-year-old Houck has a career starter ERA of 2.53 in the first through third innings. Opponents have hit just .203/.278/.293/.571 against him.
In ’23, he had a 2.71 ERA in the first through third innings, and opponents hit .207/.282/.323/.605 against him.
I don’t know if we can trust the Sox to get two top starters. So shortening games even further might go a long way next year.
Featured Image Credit: Getty Images/Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox
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