The stakes are high. Lucas Oil Stadium will be humming in the prime-time Saturday winner-take-all NFL showdown. The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are set to lock horns, with a playoff berth and possibly the AFC South crown hanging in the balance. Both teams enter the final week with their playoff aspirations on the line. The Colts, Texans, and Jaguars have identical 9-7 records. The week 18 script is written: a win for either team, coupled with a Jaguars loss, secures the division title.
The Colts hold a significant advantage in the all-time series, leading 33-10-1. The Colts have a 17-4 lifetime record against the Texans when playing in Indianapolis. This adds an extra layer of pressure for the visitors.
The teams’ latest meeting was on September 17, 2023, with the Colts winning 31-20 on the road. The Colts’ exploited a weak Houston offensive line and capitalized. Six sacks, nine hits, and 16 hurries on Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud gave them all they needed to secure the victory. The Texans’ fourth-quarter comeback fell short, as a 21-point deficit was too much to overcome. But they are not the same team that the Colts met in mid-September. After that slow 0-2 start, the Texans have gone 9-5 in their last 14 to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
- For the Colts, the path to the playoffs is clear: defeat the Texans. There is no room for error. A loss to Houston would eliminate them from postseason contention regardless of other results.
- Colts tie and Jaguars lose. The Colts would sneak into the playoffs.
For the Colts, the path to the playoffs is clear: defeat the Texans. There is no room for error. A loss to Houston would eliminate them from postseason contention regardless of other results. Securing a win against the Texans becomes even more crucial, as it hinges on the outcome of the Jaguars’ game against the Tennessee Titans. If the Colts win and the Jaguars lose, the AFC South division title is theirs.
Houston Texans (9-7)
- For the Texans, the path to the playoffs is clear: defeat the Colts. There is no room for error. A loss to Indianapolis would eliminate them from postseason contention regardless of other results.
- Texans tie and Jaguars lose plus Pittsburgh loss or tie, The Texans would sneak into the playoffs.
On the Texans’ side, the equation is just as straightforward – win and they’re in. A victory in Indianapolis on Saturday puts the playoffs. A tie combined with a bunch of favorable results is the last possible longshot. A loss and they’re done. The Texans control their destiny, and the road to the playoffs runs through their ability to conquer the Colts in enemy territory.
…but what about the Jags?
The winner of the Texans-Colts game will await the results of the Jaguars’ game. If the Jaguars lose, the Colts or the Texans will not only clinch the division title but also host a first-round playoff game, adding an extra layer of incentive to emerge victorious.
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