Houston’s Last Dance

The Houston Astros have had a nice run the past seven seasons. Houston has won six AL West titles, four pennants, and two World Series titles. They’ve also appeared in the ALCS seven straight seasons. However, nobody stays on top forever as a team’s core ages, free-agent signings underperform, the farm system dries up, top prospects flame out, and key players and coaches depart for other teams. The Astros are no exception to this reality. I believe the 2024 season could be Houston’s last dance.

Houston Has Little Financial Flexibility

The Astros are currently running the team with a projected payroll of $192,667,233. Owner Jim Crane has made it very clear that he doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax. This doesn’t leave general manager Dana Brown a whole lot of financial flexibility this offseason. This will only allow Brown to improve the team along the margins. It’ll also mean key free-agent relievers like Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton will probably be wearing different uniforms in 2024.

The Cracks Began To Show Last Season

The cracks in the Astros foundation began to show themselves last year. While tiebreakers over the Texas Rangers allowed Houston to win the AL West, this team wasn’t that good. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Lance McCullers, and Luis Garcia spent a good amount of the season on the injured list. Starters Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier regressed after solid campaigns the previous year. Jose Urquidy had a year to forget. Hunter Brown and Jake Meyers are struggling to take the next step in their development. Rafael Montero and Jose Abreu looked like free-agent busts for most of the season. Houston also had a losing record at home for the first time since 2014.

Bringing Back Justin Verlander May Hurt The Astros Later On

Currently, Houston’s farm system is ranked by many publications as the worst in baseball. In a desperate trade deadline move, Houston traded away promising prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford to the Mets, bringing back favorite son Justin Verlander. While this trade helped get Houston within one game of going back to the World Series, it hurt Houston’s future given Verlander’s advancing age. The trade also may have prolonged the time it will take for Houston to potentially contend again. Houston’s dried-up farm system will also hinder their ability to make blockbuster trades and have controllable talent on their roster.

The Beginning Of The End May Have Already Started

In the playoffs, Houston would dispatch the Minnesota Twins in four games. However, in the ALCS, the cracks in their foundation would once again show themselves at the worst time possible. After dropping the first two games, the Astros would come storming back and take three straight games from the Texas Rangers on the road. This put Houston within one game of going back to the World Series. However, Houston would be unable to close out the series losing the final two games at home and being outscored 20-6 in those contests.

Dana Brown Has Tough Decisions To Make In 2025 And 2026

Next offseason, Dana Brown and the Houston Astros front office will have even tougher decisions to make. Stars Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are free agents. No contract extension talks have been held yet. Further complicating matters is that their agent is Scott Boras, which means both will see free agency. With Kyle Tucker eligible for free agency after 2026, the Astros will have to decide between the three of them because they can’t keep them all.

Nobody Stays On Top Forever And The Astros Aren’t An Exception

No team in sports stays on top of their league forever. The Houston Astros are no exception to the natural attrition of great teams. This upcoming season could very well be their last opportunity to win another championship. Many key players are set to hit free agency this year and the following two off-seasons. Jim Crane’s refusal to pay the luxury tax means that some of those players may be playing in different cities soon. Houston’s farm system has dried up and is the worst in baseball according to many publications. This could further hurt Houston’s ability to field a contender. The Astros have had a very successful run, however, no team can win forever and the end is closer than it appears for Houston.

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