It’s the first road course of the season, ladies and gentlemen. NASCAR returns to COTA for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix! After a phenomenal, entertaining race at Bristol, we head to what is a lot of fan’s favorite road courses on the schedule. And as usual, Chris and I return to you our picks for what should be an interesting race down in Austin, Texas.
Chris picked yet another winner last week with Denny Hamlin taking home the checkered flag. So that makes two wins for him and still zero for me. But there’s plenty of time, and this is a race that could get wild and weird. So let’s go ahead and take a look at who Chris and I feel are good bets for this week’s action in the Lone Star State!
Chris’s Picks: #45 Tyler Reddick (+500) & #54 Ty Gibbs (+900)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe favorite again? You are almost making this too easy for me Kaleb. Actually, the funny thing is Kaleb recommended I take the 45 this week. I was on the fence due to the year he’s been having. Everyone has to shake the rust off though at some point. Plus it helps he won this race last year. Also, in the last three road course races of the season last year, Tyler was able to finish inside the top ten at all three. Tyler has always been good on the road courses and that hasn’t changed. So as long as mistakes aren’t made on pit road or he gets caught up in someone else’s mess they’ll be contending at the end.
As for this pick, something is clicking and quickly this year for the young Ty Gibbs. He’s been in the top ten more often, even leading somewhat more consistently. He really impressed me with how he handled the first stage of last week’s Bristol race. Plus, if you are into stats and prior numbers like myself here’s a good one for you. In all of the road course races during Ty’s rookie campaign, his worst finish came at Sonoma and that was 18th. He’s going to win this season it’s just a matter of when. A road course like COTA provides him with an even better opportunity.
Kaleb’s Picks: #13 A.J. Allmendinger (+1200) & #48 Alex Bowman (+2000)
Embed from Getty ImagesDenny Hamlin said it on the Netflix special this off-season. There are about three drivers who are great at road courses. Allmendinger is certainly one of those three. He won at the Roval in the fall, in this track’s debut in 2021, he finished fifth. Only after Ross Chastain punted him into Alex Bowman to secure the victory. But neither here nor there. Dinger can race. Despite two sub-30th finishes in the last two races. I’ll never count him out of a road course. He’ll give up the #16 to Shane Van Ginsbergen, who’s also lethal at these tracks, so watch the #13 for Dinger this weekend at COTA.
Don’t think I’ve forgotten, Chris. Your apology better be as loud as your disrespect was. The #48 of Alex Bowman returned to the scene last week at Bristol. After starting in 31st he climbed back up and finished fourth—certainly his best showing since Daytona and maybe since the beginning of the 2023 season. COTA is also one of his best tracks. In three races he’s got two top fives, and a top 10 to tag along with it. He’s got back-to-back third-place finishes in Austin. The Hack is back, ladies and gentlemen. The comeback starts now.
Chris’s Fade: #8 Kyle Busch (+1800)
Embed from Getty ImagesIt doesn’t take a lot to see that a driver and team are struggling and this team and driver are struggling. After finishing twelfth and third in the first two weeks of the season, Kyle hasn’t been anywhere near finishing in the top ten since. If you look at the numbers, I’m going against myself because Kyle finished second here last season and was pretty solid at all of the other road courses. I just don’t know right now with enough confidence if Richard Childress Racing is going to bring the type of car and pit road performance to COTA that Rowdy will need to be the Rowdy Busch we all know.
Kaleb’s Fade: #99 Daniel Suarez (+2200)
Embed from Getty ImagesI could be “that guy” and say “Stay away from Bubba Wallace on road courses”. But that’s beating up on a dead horse at this point. What has Daniel Suarez done to garner similar odds to guys like Denny Hamlin, Michael McDowell, Alex Bowman, and Austin Cindric? Guys who’ve had decent success on road courses. Despite starting inside the top five twice, Suarez hasn’t posted a finish above 24th here at COTA. I’m steering clear from the #99 here at COTA until he shows me something worth writing home about at the end of the race at Austin. His teammate does have a victory here in 2022. But Suarez is largely unimpressive here in the Lone Star State’s capital.
Chris’s Formal Apology to Alex Bowman and the #48
I’m sorry. I had ABSOLUTELY no idea of the speed and ability that this team and driver were going to bring to Bristol. I will do my absolute best, to keep the Ally team away from my personal fade paragraph if at all possible moving forward.
Also if you are wondering why there is this lovely apology then you need to check out last week’s pick’s piece.
Sincerely, Chris
If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebEmcee! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!
