The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to the first of two races at Phoenix Raceway this weekend for the Shriners Children’s 500! This is the first short track of the season. And this track usually puts on a solid race to boot. In the spring of 2023, we saw William Byron go back to back. Winning Las Vegas the week prior before coming to Phoenix and getting the job done. In the fall, for the championship race, it was all Ryan Blaney as he defeated Byron, last week’s victor Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell for the title. Ross Chastain though, stole a bit of the shine by winning the race itself. Either way, it should be a fun weekend out in the desert.
Ahead of the Shriners Children’s 500, let’s go through what Chris and I have done so far as far as winners. Neither of us picked the winner of the Daytona 500. I picked against him, as William Byron took home the gold. At Atlanta, nobody saw Daniel Suarez taking the upset. But thanks to our rotating pick order, Chris picked first and took Kyle Larson last week for the Pennzoil 400. It’s a new week though. And I’m looking to pick my first winner. Let’s get right into who we think are good bets for your DraftKings, FanDuel, or your pools for this weekend in Phoenix.
Chris’s Picks: #12 Ryan Blaney (+700) & #19 Martin Truex Jr (+1000)
Embed from Getty ImagesThis one almost felt a bit too easy of a choice for me. Ryan in the last six Phoenix races has the best finishing average among active drivers. That includes three straight second-place finishes in the desert. You know as well as I do, to be that close so many times the defending champion wants to take the checkered flag. Plus before getting taken out in Daytona, and Atlanta he had solid days going. Not to mention that he battled that whole race in Vegas. I watched him progressively make it up the running order to grab a top-three finish before the end of the race. Sorry Kaleb, but I’m coming for the repeat this week with Blaney!
Martin had a rough playoff run, after winning the regular season championship. However, the Toyota camp came out to Vegas and showed a lot of speed. Even with the unanswered questions surrounding how the new car would work on the intermediate tracks. I know if my stats people look into MTJ at Phoenix they won’t be too impressed. He’s only averaged around a tenth-place finish in the last six races. Plus in half of those same six races, he didn’t even finish in the top ten. Will he win this race this weekend, I don’t know for sure but I think you better at least count on seeing this team in the top ten, possibly top five most of the race.
Kaleb’s Picks: #1 Ross Chastain (+850) & #8 Kyle Busch (+1200)
Embed from Getty ImagesUnfortunately, Ryan Blaney’s title win overshadowed Ross Chastain’s win in the Championship Race. But it still counts to us! Chastain ran hard on this track and impressed many with his ability to stand tall and block Blaney from passing, regardless of whether he was fighting for the title. In three of the last four races here at this track, Chastain finished inside the top five. Look for that streak to continue and for him to join Daniel Suarez possibly in the victors club for Trackhouse Racing.
As for the legend, Kyle Busch, he’s finished inside the top 10 in five of the last eight races. This dates back to the 2020 season. He claimed eighth in last year’s spring race. Busch has had a fast #8 Chevy all season long. They just need to put it all together for one race and I think that time could come here. If the 2x champ can stay out of trouble and just run his race, there’s no reason he can’t pick up his first victory of the year at the Shriners Children’s 500.
Chris’s Fade: #14 Chase Briscoe (+2000)
Embed from Getty ImagesI’ve seen a few people talking about the speed that SHR as a whole showed in Las Vegas. To those people, I will say wait a bit longer before claiming this team is back. I also know when you look at Chase’s stats in Phoenix some could argue he would be a good “underdog” type of choice. Chase had a horrible race here in the fall finishing outside the top twenty, which broke his three-race top-ten finish streak at Phoenix. I need more tangible finishes for Chase and his team as a whole. Especially before I can jump back on the “SHR is back” ship. So I’m with the odds people and staying far away from the 14 this weekend.
Kaleb’s Fade: #6 Brad Keselowski (+2200)
Embed from Getty ImagesIt’s been 101 races since Brad Keselowski hit victory lane. He hasn’t performed to a great level in a long time. The closest he’s gotten was pushing teammate and employee Chris Buescher to victory at the second Daytona race last year. Phoenix hasn’t been kind to Keselowski in this cold stretch either. He hasn’t placed in the top 15 since 2021. I’d steer clear of the #6 this week, and probably until we see some tangible results. Some proof that he can still race for wins. 33rd at Daytona and Atlanta and 13th at Las Vegas last week. We’ll see how much more he can improve but this track isn’t a great one for him. I’ll skip on this Cup Series champ for now.
If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebEmcee! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!
