Who doesn’t love an early-season NASCAR weekly series? I decided to kick this one off this week, as it seems like a perfect time to keep track of the trends. Between Chris’s power rankings and our weekly picks, you get a ton of previews. But not many reviews of the action from the weekend in the NASCAR Cup Series. So here’s the newest one; “Three Up, Three Down”. The premise is simple, and maybe you see it from other content creators in other areas. But my intention is simple. Follow the picture coming into the race before, and what kind of effect it has post-race. Whether it be the storylines surrounding the driver and if the mood around them is higher or lower. Or if a devastating performance has dramatically changed their positions. Either way, this should be a fun series. So let’s kick it off now, following the first road course of the year in Austin at COTA!
Three Up
#48 Alex Bowman
Embed from Getty ImagesMake that back-to-back top-five finishes for Alex Bowman over the last two weeks. At Bristol, he impressed in a situation where many drivers struggled. At COTA he kept up his expectations and maintained that the course is one of his best tracks on the circuit. It’s refreshing to see another HMS driver besides Larson and Byron hanging around in the top five. You can’t get much higher than where those guys are, so I wouldn’t expect to see the #5 or the #24 on the up list. But Bowman certainly gets the nod here. He’s got a win at Richmond coming next week, can he get his first checkered flag in two years next weekend? Not for nothing either, his 12.5 average finish is the highest of all four HMS drivers. Things are looking good in the #48 camp.
#8 Kyle Busch
Embed from Getty ImagesWait, how can we possibly put Busch on the up? He got spun after contact with Bell and wasn’t in it at the end! Maybe true, but despite the contact the 2x Cup Series champ took home his first top-20 finish in three races with a P9. This is a bounce back and shows a trend in the upward direction. It’ll take a victory to feel comfortable about this #8 team, but you can always count on Rowdy to get the best out of whatever car he’s in. He’s got a truck series win already this year and I’d expect him to hit victory lane in NASCAR’s most prestigious series soon enough. But Busch is back and on the up once again.
#14 Chase Briscoe
Embed from Getty ImagesStewart-Haas might not be the most hopeless major team in NASCAR after all. Briscoe has posted back-to-back 13th-place finishes between Bristol and COTA. It’s a four-place drop from their P9 in Phoenix, but we didn’t expect Briscoe to be hanging around the top half of the field this season with all the changes and chaos going on in the post-Harvick Stewart-Haas garage. Briscoe found himself in P11 and P12 in Richmond last year, we’ll see if he can keep up this pace or even improve this weekend. But he’s a driver to not sleep on as we push on through the early parts of the year.
Three Down
#77 Carson Hocevar
Embed from Getty ImagesPerhaps we were premature on how good Carson Hocevar was going to be in the NASCAR Cup Series immediately. He’s been fine, but we’re now at back-to-back finishes under P20. But he showed some promise with T15s at more conventional tracks like Phoenix and Las Vegas. So maybe just a victim of odd circumstances at Bristol and then a road course thrown his way. But it’s a noticeable drop-off from the blip of success between the two races on the west coast trip. We’ll see what Richmond has for the rookie this weekend.
#9 Chase Elliott
Embed from Getty ImagesDoes anybody else feel like the #9 car and Chase Elliott have been uninspiring this year? Remember when Elliott was considered one of the best road course drivers in all of NASCAR? This past weekend he wasn’t that. He’s had two great showings in the last year and a half at the Indy Road Course and the Chicago Street Course. In 2024, Elliott has one top-10. He’s got an average finish of 14th flat. Not to mention some of the poor aesthetics about him lately. Watching his interview on the Dale Jr Download he seemed very disinterested. Anytime we see him talk Elliott doesn’t seem engaged and in his head. He needs a good run, but it won’t be handed to him.
The #9 team is on red alert here. They have to put something together and get Elliott back to running at the front. A penalty killed his day at COTA, but it wasn’t looking amazing or anything before that. NASCAR’s most popular driver won’t be getting any free rides from the field. It’s time to get back to work and fight for wins with his teammates.
#10 Noah Gragson
Embed from Getty ImagesNoah Gragson is a weird case in NASCAR this year. Of the six races run this year, he’s got three finishes 12th or above. But in the other half, 34th or worse. The last two races have been victim to the latter half of that trend. Stewart-Haas acquired him this past off-season to fill Aric Almirola’s seat, and he’s been good enough, but consistency needs to be found. It’s tough to gauge with the last two races being so peculiar, so we’ll see if he rights the ship in a more traditional track like Richmond and gets the consistency he needs. But two races sub-34th raises concerns no matter what.
If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebEmcee! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here!
