Hey, Red Sox, do you regret demoting Brennan Bernardino to Worcester yet? I hope so.
Brennan Bernardino Broke Out With Red Sox in 2023
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Red Sox claimed Brennan Bernardino last April from the Mariners because they couldn’t find competent left-handed relief pitching yet again.
The Sox began 2023 with Richard Bleier and Joely Rodriguez in the bullpen.
Bleier stunk it up and had a couple of lengthy stints on the injured list.
Rodriguez was hurt all year.
That forced Boston to give Joe Jacques and Ryan Sherriff a chance.
The Bleier, Rodriguez, Jacques, and Sherriff group combined for a 5.16 ERA/4.67 FIP.
Bernardino was a breath of fresh air and quickly became one of Alex Cora‘s most trusted relievers.
Over 50.2 innings in 2023, Bernardino had a 3.20 ERA/3.41 FIP/143 ERA+, allowing a .708 OPS against him.
The lefty did much better against left-handed hitters (.459 OPS) than right-handed hitters (.872 OPS).
He also allowed a .623 OPS with runners in scoring position and a .618 OPS in high-leverage situations. Bernardino ranked in the 90th percentile of fastball run value (12), the 87th percentile of hard-hit rate (33%), the 75th percentile of strikeout rate (27%), the 73rd percentile of barrel rate (6.7%), and the 69th percentile of xSLG (.377).
He wasn’t perfect, however.
The lefty pitched to a 1.80 ERA on the road but a 4.56 ERA at Fenway.
He allowed a .835 OPS with two out RISP. Also, he allowed a .587 OPS in medium-leverage and a .819 OPS in low-leverage situations.
He ranked in the 25th percentile of breaking ball run value (-3), the 54th percentile of xERA (4.07), the 52nd percentile of xBA (.243), and the 50th percentile of walk rate (8.3%).
The former first-round pick had a 2.51 first-half ERA, struggling to a 4.09 second-half ERA. That’s understandable when you consider Bernardino pitched the third-most innings of any Sox reliever in 2023.
Which Got Him Unnecessarily Demoted to Begin 2024
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat did 2023’s success get Brennan Bernardino? A demotion to the Worcester Red Sox, that’s what.
Boston re-signed Joely Rodriguez and gave him a second chance.
Rodriguez stunk, again, as almost everyone expected.
At least he stayed healthy this time, though, right?
Just as questionable, the Sox went with one lefty reliever, choosing Isaiah Campbell over Bernardino and every other lefty Boston had in camp.
Brennan Bernardino was only better in 2024, making the Red Sox’s decision to demote him even more stupid.
Since recalling him on April 9th, he has a .70 ERA/2.58 FIP/583 ERA+ over 25 innings with a .52 ERA at Fenway and a 1.17 ERA on the road.
Opposing hitters have a .404 OPS against, as he’s held right-handed hitters to a .428 OPS and left-handed hitters to a .378 OPS.
He’s allowed a .167 opponent OPS with runners in scoring position and a .083 OPS with two out RISP.
Opponents have a .226 OPS against Bernardino in high-leverage situations (.478 OPS in medium leverage and .506 in low leverage).
Bernardino ranks in the 98th percentile of pitcher run value (13), the 97th percentile of fastball run value (10), the 94th percentile of hard-hit rate (29 percent), and the 93rd percentile of xSLG (.306).
The California native also ranks in the 89th percentile of xBA (.201), the 85th percentile of xERA (2.92), the 83rd percentile of breaking ball run value (3), the 78th percentile of strikeout rate (27 percent), and the 76th percentile of barrel rate (5.5 percent).
Bernardino ranks fifth in MLB in opponent average, sixth in ERA and OPS against. He is 14th in strand rate (86 percent), 15th in Win Probability Added (1.44) and 30th in FIP. Bernardino is also 71st (of 476) in hard-hit per swing rate (11 percent).
What’s Different for Red Sox Lefty Brennan Bernardino in 2024?
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat’s changed for Bernardino from ’23 to ’24?
Well, quite a bit, actually.
But to sum it up, he seems to have refined his release point and added a cutter/slider. He’s exclusively used the cutter against righties.
Righties are hitting .143 against the cutter despite hard contact against it.
Bernardino is throwing more strikes and getting hit, but batters can’t make good quality contact off him.
Bernardino’s curveball is another good example of that.
The curveball has a 24 percent hard-hit rate (17.5 percent last year) and a 27 percent strikeout rate (33 percent last year) against it. And batters are swinging and missing on the pitch less than in 23 (23 percent this year, 35 percent in 23) both in and out of the zone but are still hitting a mere .103 against it.
He’s also using his curveball and sinker less overall than in ’23, though he’s using both more against lefties.
That’s led to a .143 average against his sinker with more swing and miss (21.5 percent in ’24, 18.5 percent last year) both in and out of the zone and more strikeouts (31 percent this year, 24.5 percent in ’23).
The sinker has also generated a lower hard-hit (6.5 percent down to 4 percent) and barrel rate (38 percent down to 27 percent).
Brennan Bernardino didn’t deserve a demotion. All the Red Sox did with that decision was give the guy motivation to humiliate and prove them wrong.
Boy, has he done exactly that and then some.
Featured Image Credit: Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images
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