The NASCAR Cup Series is on break. The Olympics have taken over NBC’s sports coverage the last week, and will for another. As we inch closer to the green flag being dropped at Richmond Raceway, now is a great time to look at where we are, especially regarding the playoffs, which begin in four races.
We’ve had 12 winners so far. Two we probably wouldn’t have assumed with Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric. There are four spots left on the block. This leaves room for new winners and raises the heat on drivers on the bubble. Let’s run through the standings. We’ll talk about the guys who are locked up and are chasing the regular season championship. Then the drivers who are in on points, and the guys on the outside looking in. Let’s get right to it. Here is your NASCAR Olympic Break Bubble Watch!
In on Wins
Embed from Getty ImagesAs we established earlier. There have been 12 race winners through 22 weeks of racing. Here are the standings as we sit today ahead of Richmond of those drivers:
- P1: #5 Kyle Larson (4 wins, 28 playoff points)
- P2: #20 Christopher Bell (3 wins, 24 playoff points)
- P3: #11 Denny Hamlin (3 wins, 21 playoff points)
- P4: #24 William Byron (3 wins, 16 playoff points)
- P5: #12 Ryan Blaney (2 wins, 12 playoff points)
- P6: #45 Tyler Reddick (1 win, 8 playoff points)
- P7: #2 Austin Cindric (1 win, 7 playoff points)
- P8: #9 Chase Elliott (1 win, 6 playoff points)
- P9: #22 Joey Logano (1 win, 6 playoff points)
- P10: #6 Brad Keselowski (1 win, 5 playoff points)
- P11: #48 Alex Bowman (1 win, 5 playoff points)
- P12: #99 Daniel Suarez (1 win, 5 playoff points)
Right now, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are going toe to toe for the NASCAR regular season championship. Larson leads by 10 after winning the Brickyard 400. But the reason Chase Elliott is eighth on the playoff standings is because of his playoff points. If Elliott wins the regular season championship over Larson though, that’s 15 points to his total. He’d jump up to P3 with Denny Hamlin if that happened today. #45 Tyler Reddick is also in the mix for the regular season championship just -15 of Larson. The next closest after that in P4 is Denny Hamlin -43. It feels like a three-car race as it stands today, but a lot can happen with a Superspeedway race left on the ticket.
In on Points
Embed from Getty ImagesThe four other spots in the playoffs are decided by the regular season points standings. Some positions are more comfortable than others. Let’s take a look at them:
- P13: #19 Martin Truex Jr (+108)
- P14: #54 Ty Gibbs (+42)
- P15: #17 Chris Buescher (+17)
- P16: #1 Ross Chastain (+7)
Martin Truex Jr has had a solid season despite not having the win. The 2023 Regular Season champion isn’t quite the same as he was last year, but still a really good driver. He’s P7 in the regular season point standings today, and there’s a reason he’s 66 points ahead of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate. The luck just hasn’t been there in any facet in 2024. That probably plays into his decision to retire from full-time racing after the final race of the year. I’d say it’s a fairly safe bet that Truex will be competing for a championship in the fall. Ty Gibbs is also not under threat. +42 above the cutline is a great place to be, and would take some colossal screw-ups lining up with some big races from drivers outside the bubble to become a major concern.
At Risk
Embed from Getty ImagesChris Buescher and Ross Chastain though, they can feel the heat of that cut-off line right under them. The driver threatening them most has shown serious speed at points through the NASCAR season and with a superspeedway left on the docket, they need to get ahead of this and fast. Buescher has been in contention to win several races this year but hasn’t had a top ten in three weeks. Not since his back-to-back P5 finishes at New Hampshire and Nashville, which were chaotic in their own right. As for Chastain, he’s only had two top fives at all this year and hasn’t been in the top 10 since New Hampshire.
Outside Looking In
Embed from Getty ImagesThere’s only one serious contender as it pertains to sneaking in and leapfrogging one of Chastain or Buescher on points. But it’s worth taking a look at more than one. Let’s run down the next four drivers on the bubble:
- #23 Bubba Wallace (-17)
- #14 Chase Briscoe (-83)
- #8 Kyle Busch (-112)
- #38 Todd Gilliland (-118)
Bubba Wallace has had great stretches over the year, and he’s had rough ones. He’s coming off of his first stage win of the year at the Brickyard 400, and a P5 finish. His lowest finish since June 30th is a P13 at the Chicago Street Race, where his day was ruined. I think this #23 is not only going to push Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot, but he’s also going to push for wins at Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington.
As for the others, it’s a must-win situation. Chase Briscoe has only had one great day with a P2 at New Hampshire. Todd Gilliland has had flashes in the #38 car and will surely be a dark horse in NASCAR for 2025. And Kyle Busch can’t seem to get it right in 2024. Out of these drivers, I’ll maintain that the 2x Cup Series champion Busch has the best chance of winning. You can’t take away his experience and his god-given talent behind the wheel. He was P3 at Richmond’s summer race last year, and he is more than capable of winning a superspeedway race. But that #8 car has got to get better and fast.
If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here!
