2024 Federated Auto Parts 400 BellyUp Racing Picks

After a grueling, long, two-week period without NASCAR racing, we’re back in Richmond for the Federated Auto Parts 400! The drivers are well-rested and ready to pounce at the opportunity to lock themselves into one of the final four playoff spots. Or increase their count in the playoff standings. At Richmond earlier in the spring, we saw a crazy finish with the #11 car of Denny Hamlin speeding to the finish, and #19 Martin Truex Jr having a total meltdown.

Richmond isn’t a popular track with the fans by any means. Some argue it shouldn’t have two dates on the calendar. But NASCAR is doing all it can to make this race better. Starting with the introduction of a new option tire this weekend. Giving teams more options for strategy and hopefully finding some disparity between fast cars and slow ones. Either way, Chris and I are back, well-rested, and ready to give you more picks! Here are our picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400 in Richmond!

Chris’s Picks: #4 Josh Berry (+2500) & #45 Tyler Reddick (+1800)

Richmond is the type of short track that Josh made his living on in the late model stock world. He knows how to drive a Cup Series car at Richmond as well. In his two starts, he’s started 30th in each race and drove up to the top 10. He was close to another top-ten finish in the Spring but missed it (11th). However, he led some laps and even grabbed stage points in both stages. Plus, even though he is on a bad streak right now, he grabbed top-ten finishes before this streak on two short tracks in Iowa and New Hampshire. It should be a solid weekend if Lady Luck and Josh are on the same terms again. Could he upset the playoffs and grab a win? At these odds, I’ll throw some money down on the “rookie” driver. 

When you look at the recent finishes he’s had at Richmond. You might question this pick at first. However, his recent races at Richmond haven’t been horrible. His worst with 23XI racing being 16th twice. Plus did you see the tear he was on before the Olympic break? He’s had one finish outside the top ten in the last nine races. He’s due for another win. I expected his odds to be closer to the top of the favorites. But that’s okay. Either way, I will roll with Tyler this week regardless.

Kaleb’s Picks: #17 Chris Buescher (+1600) & #23 Bubba Wallace (+3500)

Chris Buescher won this race last year in the summer. He also finished P11 in the spring this season. In three of the five races here in the Next Gen era, he’s finished in the top 10. Two of those are in the top three. The #17 car is in the heat of a points battle for the final playoff spots, and a win would lock him in, and boost morale going the rest of the way. This was the sight of his first of three wins last year. Could we see a similar rise to the top for Buescher?

As for Bubba Wallace, he’s on a heater as of late, picking up his first stage win last week. He’s also in the thick of this playoff battle with Buescher and Ross Chastain. Slowly but surely climbing back up into striking distance of the #1 and the #17. Richmond has been one of his better tracks as of late. In the last two races here, he’s finished P12 and P13 respectively with two P2 stage finishes and a P4 in 2023. He’s just got to get the finishes down. I like the odds enough to gamble that he’ll get it done this week. A win might be a stretch, but you could find some fine odds on a T-10 or even a T-5 finish if you’re feeling lucky.

Chris’s Fade: #24 William Byron (+1200)

Willy B is due for a win soon. Let’s throw this out there first off. However, I don’t feel good about Richmond being that win. In his 12 career Cup Series starts he has only three top-ten finishes at Richmond. That’s with him qualifying in the top ten for seven out of twelve of those races as well. For whatever reason Richmond and William haven’t been the best to each other in the Cup Series. I like other drivers more this week, but with how I’ve been picking fades lately William will probably wind up in victory lane. Either way, though I’m staying away and think you should look into other drivers before the driver of the 24 car. 

Kaleb’s Fade: #12 Ryan Blaney (+1200)

It feels really strange to go up against a Team Penske car at a short track. Especially picking against the 2023 Cup Series champ Ryan Blaney. But he’s my least favorite of the guys who are under +2000 here at the Federated Auto Parts 400. At Richmond, he has just two career top-ten finishes, no better than P7. And in the next-gen era, he’s only collected stage points in the first two races. Since then he’s finished P26, P14, and P19 respectively. Leading three laps, no stage points. It just doesn’t seem to be a kind track to him. He can very well prove me wrong, as several drivers I’ve faded have in 2024. But somebody has to get into this spot, and the numbers say it’s Ryan Blaney that shouldn’t be bet on in this race.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!