Southern 500 2024 BellyUp Racing Picks

Another crowned jewel has arrived on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The field is returning its talents to Darlington Raceway for the Cook Out Southern 500! The track that’s “Too Tough to Tame” is a fan favorite among NASCAR fans diehards and casuals alike. This Labor Day weekend is bound to be action-packed as this serves as the final race before the end of the post-season, and we have an interesting points battle at the bubble. After Harrison Burton miraculously won at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in Daytona last week, it’s everybody’s last gasp to make it to the postseason. Chris and I are as usual here to deliver our betting favorites this weekend. So let’s head out to the Lady in Black and give some predictions!

Chris’s Picks: #17 Chris Buescher (+1600) & #20 Christopher Bell (+1200)

Yes, let’s get this out of the way. I am well aware of the names of the picks this week. Now, back to racing. Chris Buescher in the last seven Darlington races has been hit or miss if you look at the finishes alone. However, he showed awesome speed here in the Spring and looked to be on his way to at least a solid finish if not a win. Before Tyler Reddick sent it into the turn and wrecked them both, he finished 3rd in last year’s Southern 500. Chris is at +1600 to win, I’ll jump on that.

Just based on recent results he and RFK in general have seemed to have at Darlington. Buescher is also sitting at +340 to be the best finishing Ford only sitting behind his boss/teammate Brad Keselowski. Which again could turn you a little over three times your investment in return if you don’t like his chances of winning. 

So, C Bell hasn’t finished top ten at Darlington since the Southern 500 in 2022. However, that’s going to change I fill this weekend for sure. He’s coming off an awesome finish at Daytona, and Richmond a few weeks ago. Christopher has been known for getting hot later in the playoffs the last few years and then suffering heartbreaking mechanical failures. I think maybe we are about to see a different Bell this year than before. Plus at those odds to win, it’s almost too hard to pass up on a driver of Bell’s capabilities. Somewhere else you could look to make a little extra cash, is the top-finishing Toyota. I know Hamlin is a tempting choice. However Bell at +600 is interesting. 

Kaleb’s Picks: #19 Martin Truex Jr (+1100) & #23 Bubba Wallace (+2500)

After picking Harrison Burton to get the Wood Brothers their 100th Cup Series victory at Daytona for months, I considered retiring from picks altogether. There was simply no way I could ever live up to that level of prediction again. But, the people demand their picks. So I’ll start with the veteran in his last Southern 500 as a full-time Cup Series driver. These odds are WAY too good for Truex Jr. You can get him finishing in the top 10 at +150. With two career wins and 10 top-10 finishes, I think this is way too good of a bet. The catch is that in the next-gen car, his best finish is P18 in last year’s Southern 500. But he’s shown speed here and won a stage. Give me MTJ in his last go at this crowned jewel as a full-time member of the Cup Series.

As for the #23 of Bubba Wallace. He’s going to be looking for the race of his life to get into the playoffs. They’ve had speed all year. And if not for flukey Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton’s victories, they’d be in the playoffs right now. But they sit -21 behind Chris’s pick of the #17 car, and that just seems like way too much ground to make up by points racing. I think Wallace will be aggressive, and if all goes well, he should be sitting in the top 10 minimum at the end of this race, where you can get him at +300. But if you’re all in with Bubba Wallace, the race-win odds are great too. In his career at Darlington, he’s posted four straight top-ten finishes. You could certainly do worse than bet on the #23 this weekend.

Chris’s Fade: #19 Martin Truex Jr (+1100)

Kaleb has a ton of good reasons for taking MTJ in his last attempt at grabbing another Darlington win. However, if we are purely talking about winning odds. There are way better options to put money on. Martin has one top-ten finish in the last seven races. Oh and in those other six races he didn’t even touch the top twenty. For whatever reason this season Martin hasn’t had the luck of old. Not to mention this little fact as well. Martin hasn’t even touched the top ten at Darlington since 2021. Now he’s had some involvement with accidents, and a water pump failure during that stretch as well. Either way, “The Lady in Black” and Martin haven’t had a good working relationship. At +1100 to win, there are better options that could win you more money. 

Kaleb’s Fade: #24 William Byron (+900)

The #24 car has been a ghost as of late. Finishing P2 in Michigan seemed to be a break from the norm of Byron’s usual running in the teens, just quietly battling for points and settling for solid but not great finishes. The #24 hasn’t seen Victory Lane since COTA five months ago. A P6 at Darlington and a P4 at last year’s Southern 500 makes this a risky fade, but I haven’t seen it from the #24 team in a while. They don’t feel like a race-winning car right now. And that should be a mark of concern heading into the playoffs.

On top of this, the odds just kind of stink. He is +110 to hit the top 10, but I like other bets elsewhere from guys who just feel faster as of late. Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott all have far better payouts to finish inside the top 10 and they’ve had at least comparable if not better speed this season. I say take your money and toss it elsewhere this weekend.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!