The last time we hit Kansas Speedway, we saw the closest finish in NASCAR. Now at the Hollywood Casino 400, we’re in for what should be another great set of playoff racing. We’re back at the intermediates after an ultra-disappointing race at Bristol last weekend, where Larson led 468 laps. Chris and I will give you two drivers we’re looking at this weekend. We’re also staying away from one driver. The playoffs continue at Kansas, kicking off the Round of 12 here. Without further adieu, let’s get to it!
Chris’s Picks: #6 Brad Keselowski (+2200) & #19 Martin Truex Jr (+1200)
Embed from Getty ImagesWhen you see these odds, you might wonder if I was possibly under the influence when making the choice but hold on just a minute. Let me start here, since becoming his own boss, he’s only finished outside the top twenty once much like his teammate last weekend at Bristol. Brad hasn’t qualified well at Kansas, but he and the team worked themselves into these at least consistent finishes at Kansas. I’ll leave you on one more little fact though. In his twenty-nine career starts at Kansas. Brad has only four finishes outside of the top twenty. So while his chances of winning the race may be slimmer money can still be made on “Bad Brad” especially if he works his up to at least the top ten.
Man, it has been one heck of a horrible end to his farewell season. Lady Luck and Martin are not on the same terms but Kansas is one place he could get that last win. Martin in his last twenty starts at Kansas is pretty remarkable. He has only one finish outside the top twenty. Also won twice and had an eight race streak of top-ten finishes to boot. He had a solid run here in the Spring, finishing fourth. So the speed is there, or it should be anyway. The biggest question, with Martin, is one that no one has the answer to because Lady Luck is a cruel mistress.
Kaleb’s Picks: #23 Bubba Wallace (+1800) & #48 Alex Bowman (+3500)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Toyotas are always excellent in Kansas. In three of the last five races here, the teammate to the #23 car, the #45 has been spotted in victory lane. Between Kurt Busch, Bubba Wallace filling in for Kurt Busch, and most recently Tyler Reddick in 2023. Tyler Reddick is +700 to win outright, the value isn’t there for the other props such as a T5 or a T10 finish, so I look to Bubba Wallace. A past winner, a P2 stage finish last fall. I like the odds here. The scare with Wallace is that he’s coming off of a P32 and a P17 finish in the last two races in Kansas. So buyer beware here, but Wallace has the capability of bringing a fast car and deserves some eyes on him.
As far as Alex Bowman, he’s on a tear. Since the beginning of the NASCAR playoffs, nobody has scored more stage points than the #48 team. It seems he’s taken the “rumors” stirred up by talking heads personally. Bowman has the fourth-best average finish at Kansas of active drivers. He hasn’t finished outside of the T10 at Kansas in the next-gen car era. You can get Bowman to finish in the T10 at +150 in the Hollywood Casino 400. Go hammer that and forget about it. You should get some free money deposited in your account on Sunday night.
Chris’s Fade: #24 William Byron (+1000)
Embed from Getty ImagesThis is another fade, that is more stats-based than anything. In Williams’ thirteen career Kansas starts he’s finished in the top ten in seven races. In his last two though his best finish was fifteenth and he didn’t lead a lap. So something about Kansas just hasn’t been right for this twenty-four-team. Not to mention in the last eight races alone this season, William has only two top ten finishes and has finished worse than 25th four times. So, William hasn’t exactly had a good stretch of races. I’m going to stay away this week from Willy B one more time and probably until he proves otherwise performance wise.
Kaleb’s Fade: #12 Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Embed from Getty ImagesRyan Blaney is sitting fifth among the favorites for this race on DraftKings, and I’m not sure why. He’s finished P12 twice and P16 once in the last three races here, and hasn’t posted a T5 at Kansas since a P3 in 2017. Team Penske always turns it up late season in these races, so I could be burned pretty hard here if the hot streak starts here, but on face value, I don’t love Blaney at this spot with these odds. There are proven contenders elsewhere who can give you a better payday when it happens. Blaney feels like more of a hope and a prayer than others. I’ll steer away from that for now.
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