NASCAR Cup Series racing is back in Atlanta for the Ambetter Health 400! This is the first of two dates that NASCAR has set to visit the heart of Georgia. Following the spectacle of wreckage that was the Daytona 500, the ever-so-popular superspeedway-like racing is right back. But folks are a tad more excited for this race than others. Atlanta since the repave has aged beautifully, causing tireware and creating opportunities to pass. That, on top of this race last year, which saw a three-wide finish between #99-#12-#8.
All that sets up for what should be another fun race for the Ambetter Health 400. Chris and I are back for another set of picks, which didn’t see either of us pick a winner. But at least I didn’t start the year with a fade winning the Daytona 500 like last season. So without further adieu, let’s get right into this. Here are the BellyUp Racing’s picks for this week’s Ambetter Health 400!
Kaleb’s Picks: #20 Christopher Bell (+1800) & #99 Daniel Suarez (+1700)
Christopher Bell’s record on these tracks isn’t awesome, but Atlanta sticks out. His average finish is relatively mediocre (17.7) but he’s netted two top fives in the last four races. Including a P4 in last fall’s race. He’s also collected some solid stage finishes along the way. Only last spring when he wrecked out did he not collect stage points in any stage. It’s a gamble, but I think C-Bell could be a factor here.
As for last year’s winner, Suarez seems to have this track figured out. Ryan Blaney is the only drive with a better average finish in the last six races here, by .1 of a margin. The only race where Suarez finished outside the top-10 was the spring of 2023 where he fell victim to the DVP. In the last three races, the #99 hasn’t finished worse than P2. If you’re not comfortable betting on Suarez going back-to-back, he’s +550 for a top 3 and +220 for a top five.
Chris’s Picks: #1 Ross Chastain (+2200) & #9 Chase Elliott (+1200)
Let’s start by saying this. Trackhouse Racing has something figured out on this Atlanta configuration. Daniel has finished in the top two in the last three races. Ross hasn’t been quite that good as of late which is probably why his odds are a bit worse. However, if you go look at his results since joining Trackhouse he only has one finish outside the top fifteen, and that was due to the damaged vehicle policy. So he hasn’t been horrible. I think Ross could easily, be a contender this week as long as he can avoid any early chaos.
So, Chase has always had decent runs in his Cup series career. He’s only ever finished outside the top twenty once in 12 career Atlanta starts. Now obviously we had the re-pave ahead of 2022. You’d think the results would’ve changed but nope. Chase has only two finishes outside the top ten, but none outside the top fifteen. Plus he had the win back in July of 22. Also, this team had a tuned-in car it seemed like last week during the Daytona 500. That car seemed to turn and maneuver all across the track better than most. At +1200 you could turn some pizza money into light bill money easily. If you like looking at the statistics, Chase is a pretty safe bet too.
Kaleb’s Wildcard: #01 Corey Lajoie (+5000)
Corey Lajoie was nominated for SpeedGeek’s driver of the week for his efforts last weekend at Daytona. And I think he has a chance to go ahead and get another one of those with a solid performance at Atlanta. A concept he’s not unfamiliar with. He’s got two top-fives in Atlanta since the repave, and a couple of top-15s to go with. Unfortunately, he hasn’t scored those top fives in a couple of years now. He’s in worse equipment with a worse team in Rick Ware Racing. All that plus he’s a part-time racer. The focus might not be the same as it was in Daytona where he led 10 laps and ran up front for a good portion of the race. But I think if you’re looking to spread the wealth of your units and try to hit big. Corey Lajoie is a good fit at the Ambetter Health 400.
Chris’s Wildcard: Erik Jones (+4500)
As of late Erik hasn’t had the results at Atlanta. We’ll chalk it up to the fact that LMC was learning the Toyota way of things since it was just the last two races. Before that though he hadn’t finished outside the top fifteen on this new configuration. Plus all three of the Legacy cars had awesome runs at Daytona. So maybe Ole seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson cleaned house and brought in some new people. Either way at +4500 you can make yourself a nice little chunk of change with just a ten dollar investment. Plus as I mentioned above Erik seems to like this style of racing.
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