NASCAR continues its tour of playoff tracks with a visit to Martinville, Virginia, for the Cook Out 400. The paperclip provides some of the circuit’s most fun, intense short-track racing. We’re blessed with two dates a year at this iconic raceway. After Kyle Larson’s dominance at Homestead, we get to a track that could be a lot tougher for many guys through the field. So, without further delay, let’s get right into it. Kaleb and Chris are out to make you some money or save you from bad bets. Here are our picks for the Cook Out 400!
Kaleb’s Picks: #2 Austin Cindric (+2800) & #23 Bubba Wallace (+3000)
Austin Cindric’s Penske Ford is mostly forgotten about. Sometimes, justly, but this isn’t a spot where I’d overlook the former Daytona 500 winner. Cindric has a P4 and a P9 in the last two fall races here at the Paperclip. Which doesn’t jump off the page to his average finish with a P23 and P33 in the spring. You’re banking on Cindric to begin to find some consistency, which with Team Penske sans Ryan Blaney, can sometimes fail to show up until September. But it’s a bet I like enough. +100 for a top-10 and +350 for a top-five.
Bubba Wallace, similarly to Cindric, gets credit only for his superspeedway prowess, but he’s made great gains at short tracks and intermediates. He collected a P3 at Homestead last week and has three top fives in the last five short-track races. Including a P4 at last spring’s race here at Martinsville. +3000 feels like a great shout for arguably the second-best Toyota running right now. He’s +380 for a top-five and +110 for a top-ten.
Chris’s Picks: #19 Chase Briscoe (+1200) & #60 Ryan Preece (+3000)
(Forgive Kaleb again, not a ton of photos of Preece and Briscoe side by side in their new cars)
This team and driver needed the run we saw from them at Homestead. He can head into Martinsville knowing since the next-generation car has come to the Cup Series. He’s only finished as worse and 15th on “the paperclip.” I was expecting to see more from this guy, but luck hasn’t fallen his way. I like these odds for a winner if the car is underneath of Chase. Another good bet to take for Chase is +150 for a top five. Chase overperformed here more often than not with SHR. I don’t feel as though he can’t do that anymore.
Another previous SHR driver that never really did horrible at Martinsville. In his four career starts in the #41 car at “The PaperClip,” he never finished worse than 20th. At +3000, these odds are probably about right for the win. However, he already has overperformed in a lot of people’s eyes and there isn’t a reason he couldn’t do that again. His odds for a top five are currently at +380 and top ten +110. Not huge winners, but winners for sure. Don’t be surprised at all to see this RFK Racing Mustang in and around the top ten.
Kaleb’s Fade: #11 Denny Hamlin (+650)
I hate fading guys two weeks in a row at their better tracks, but this is one of the few cases we’re doing that. Hamlin hasn’t won here since the Barack Obama administration, and he’s still got the third-best odds on DraftKings. You’d have to bet him top-three to get plus odds as he’s -120 for a top-five. I don’t love that for him and you as a bettor. We can skip out on this one.
Chris’s Fade: #20 Christopher Bell (+900)
I understand that this is Christopher Bell, the guy who won three races in a row a few weeks ago. Plus, he’s been on a “meh” roll as well at Las Vegas and then again last weekend at Homestead. He has not been great at “The Paperclip.” In ten career starts in the cup series, he has one win and only three top-ten finishes. Could he very well prove me wrong? Well, yes, but those odds are one in ten races. So, as of right now. I’m going with other drivers before C Bell this weekend.
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