For the first time in a long time, the Straight Talk Wireless 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway in Florida will not be a playoff race. In this odd departure from tradition, this race runs early in the NASCAR season. Following a three-race stint out west. The hope is that this will give the track the necessary time to prepare for renovations to get a bid to host the NASCAR Cup Series championship again down the line. But for now, this race runs in late March. As usual, Chris and I are here to deliver our picks. Two of them deserve your time and money; you may need to steer clear of the other options. Let’s kick this sucker off, here is our picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Homestead!
Kaleb’s Picks: #16 AJ Allmendinger (+8000) & #60 Ryan Preece (+6500)
Allmendinger is tied for the best average finish at this track of any active NASCAR Cup Series driver in the next-gen era. With a 5.3, Dinger has notched a P8, P5, and a P3 in the last three races. He’s yet to lead a lap, but with these odds and these numbers, you should look into betting this #16 car to finish top 5 at +800. Slam dunk.
As for Ryan Preece, he’s only finished in the top 10 here once, but this #60 car has been quite the surprise so far in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. His lowest finish where he hasn’t wrecked came at COTA, otherwise, his worst is P18, and a streak of two straight top 15s, with a P3 at Las Vegas last weekend. You can get Preece at +700 for a top five and even +200 for a top 10. Another smart low-risk reward that could pay handsomely.
Chris’s Picks: #21 Josh Berry (+3000) & #45 Tyler Reddick (+500)
The newest member of my 2025 NASCAR Power Rankings is coming off that popular win last week. Josh is riding a hot streak right now, so why not hop on the hot streak with him, right? I know he only has one start at Homestead in this car. However, he managed to finish eleventh last year after starting twelfth, and we all know the type of equipment/situation he was in last season. I’m not normally one to tell you to take the big odds bet, but Josh has been really consistent in this car thus far, and I think he could continue it this week. So if you don’t lay the money on the win, consider the odds of +400 for a top five. I think that, as long as the car is there, Josh can show his driving ability again easily.
I know back-to-back weeks of picking the same driver. However, it’s hard to pick one as my favorite this week. Mainly because Homestead is a driver’s track. Plus, we all know Tyler is going to grab a win this season. Why not do it where just five months or so ago, he had an awesome last lap pass for the win in the playoffs? Plus in his five career cup series starts at Homestead. He has one finish outside the top five, and coincidentally, that was due to an accident. Tyler knows how to drive this track, much like others. While it won’t net you a huge amount of winnings take the win with Reddick this week.
Kaleb’s Fade: #11 Denny Hamlin (+1100)
This #11 team just hasn’t had the speed to make me confident in these odds. At +1100, you’re essentially betting for a win or bust. +300 for a top-three and +140 for a top-five just don’t move the needle for me. Especially on a car that just hasn’t had a ton of momentum this year. Joe Gibbs Racing team is struggling to find its footing beyond Christopher Bell’s masterclass. I could easily be wrong, but I don’t like these odds enough to co-sign them.
Chris’s Fade: #1 Ross Chastain (+1600)
I’ve rolled with Ross a few times this year as a pick to win me some money. However, this weekend, I’m staying away from the Busch car. In six career cup series starts in Miami. Ross has one top-ten finish, and that came back in 2022 with Trackhouse. Since then, though, he’s finished 31st and 33rd collectively. I know he was involved in an accident in one of those. He also has only qualified in the top ten once here. For some reason, Homestead-Miami and Ross are still trying to figure each other out. At these odds, there are drivers around Ross with similar that most likely will be better options to put money down on this weekend.
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