On paper, it’s easy to say the Chicago White Sox are a dominant team. They are currently ten games ahead of the Cleveland Indians and will easily win the American League Central. Jose Abreu is having another MVP year; the team is sixth in runs scored and the pitching staff has a combined earned run average of 3.79. The White Sox have also battled lots of injuries all year and still have remained in first place. While all of this is impressive, I believe the White Sox are getting too much hype.
Despite their record, the White Sox play in a weak division. The Indians are just above .500 and the Tigers, Twins, and Royals are all rebuilding. This has allowed the White Sox to be in first place almost the whole season. None of those four teams will be relevant for the rest of the season allowing the Sox to cruise the rest of the way. While skating through the rest of the regular season isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it might hurt them when they go up against a team in the division series that has had to battle all year. You can pencil the White Sox as Central Division champions, but don’t be surprised if one of the other playoff teams sneaks up on them and takes a playoff series from them.
The Sox have a losing record against teams with a record over .500 or better. Their record against those teams is 23-28. When they enter the playoffs, every team they’ll potentially face has a winning record. For comparison, the 2005 world championship team struggled against teams with winning records, but still managed to go 39-33 against them that season. Prior to the 2020 season, the White Sox hadn’t made the playoffs since 2008. History also isn’t on the White Sox side, in their entire 120-year existence, they have never won a postseason series when they have had a losing record against winning teams. The 2014 San Francisco Giants are the last team to win a World Series despite having a losing record against winning teams.
This season the Sox schedule has also been very generous. They have had a strength of schedule that has ranked 28th in all of baseball this season. Only the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals have played worse teams.
While the White Sox can’t necessarily control the scheduling, it won’t necessarily exclude them from getting to the World Series, but it might be a factor when they go against a team that has played playoff-caliber opponents for most of the season. It’s safe to say the White Sox have benefited greatly from playing non-contending teams for most of the season.
While the White Sox have battled injury adversity most of this season, they haven’t proven they are serious about contending. While winning a World Series with a losing record against the winning team is possible, the odds are very much stacked against the White Sox. Chicago playing in a weak division and having a favorable schedule has benefited them all season. The Sox made it to the postseason during last year’s truncated season, but they benefited from it being expanded. Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Lance Lynn, and Yasmani Grandal are the only players with legitimate playoff experience. Not having that experience might be detrimental. While it helps that they have a hall of fame manager in Tony LaRussa; it won’t be enough to overcome their struggles against playoff teams.
