We’re in the home stretch of the MLB season. The grind is nearly over, and the playoff races are coming down to the wire. There’s still plenty to watch in this last bunch of games, with Aaron Judge going for Roger Maris‘s home run record and Albert Pujols chasing 700 bombs. On top of that, though, it’s the last chance for players to make their cases for their respective award races.
It’s been five months since I tried to predict who would take home some hardware this year, and overall, I think I did well. Given baseball’s inherent randomness, getting the major award winners right is never easy. There are always surprise breakouts, underperformers, injuries, and much more that can change the race entirely. This year was downright historic, thanks to the aforementioned historical home run chases.
Before this season draws to a close, let’s review my predictions to see what I got right, what I missed, and who stands out among the crowd this year.
AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez
I’m really happy to have nailed this one. I was prepared to eat crow after he got off to a similarly awful start to the Mariners’ other big prospect Jared Kelenic. Given time, though, Julio Rodriguez has blossomed into a superstar. In his age 21 season, the outfielder is already worth 5.6 WAR with a stellar .279/.341/.499 slash line. That’s good for a 142 OPS+, strong enough to rank him top ten in the AL, tied with Rafael Devers and Andres Gimenez. By offensive WAR, his 5.5 mark puts him sixth in the AL, behind only the most elite hitters like Judge and Yordan Alvarez. Statcast also has him as a 93rd percentile defender and 98th percentile runner, making him a pure five-tool player.
I don’t really see anyone catching the Mariners superstar, but let’s give some due to the other great rookies of the AL. As expected, both Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. have put together solid inaugural outings, with Rutschman the only one who can even sniff Rodriguez. He’s posted a 120 OPS+ from the catcher spot and has racked up 4.7 WAR in just 100 games. Beyond them, Jeremy Peña and Steven Kwan have been nice surprises this year for the Astros and Guardians, respectively.
There’s no stopping the J-Rod show, though. Between his pristine regular season numbers and a fun appearance at the Home Run Derby, he’s made his mark. It’s his award to lose at this point. He’s definitely justified that monster $210 to 350 million contract.
NL Rookie of the Year: Spencer Strider
Early on, I felt pretty sure of my choice of Seiya Suzuki for the Rookie of the Year award. Coming over from Japan, it seemed like, after some adjustment, he’d have a bit of a jump on other rookies that have had to climb up from the minor leagues. Then he seemingly skipped the adjustment period altogether in the early goings. Alas, injuries plus regression inevitably crept in, and now he’s firmly out of it. Suzuki has a solid enough slash line of .263/.336/.433, good for a 114 OPS+. He has been hot lately with a .882 OPS in September, though the overall numbers aren’t quite what was hoped for.
Statcast isn’t particularly fond of his outfield defense either, landing him squarely in the 11th percentile in OAA and sixth percentile in outfielder jump. Overall, it’s not all there for him yet, but he doesn’t lack potential.
However, who became the frontrunners was a big shock in this race. As most expected, it wasn’t Oneil Cruz, Hunter Greene, or Joey Bart. It wasn’t even a later call-up like the once-hot Christopher Morel. Instead, a pair of Braves rookies who weren’t exactly unheralded but also lacked the hype of the other three and Suzuki have dominated the competition. Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II have been revelations on that Braves roster. Of the two, though, Strider stands out as the favorite. Despite only starting 20 games and appearing in 31, he’s racked up a 3.9 WAR with a 2.67 ERA and an 0.995 WHIP. He’s been totally disgusting and totally worthy of the award.
AL Cy Young Award: Justin Verlander
This was a bit of a bigger miss by me. Despite the fears, Shane Bieber has actually put together a pretty terrific season, all things considered. He’s returned to being the anchor of the Guardians rotation, posting a stellar 2.86 ERA in 181.1 innings. That’s right in line with his career numbers, and a 1.031 WHIP and 2.84 FIP prove this is all real. I imagine he’ll get some down-ballot Cy Young votes this year, but he’s still a far cry from the leaders. Arguably, there are three pitchers with a realistic claim for the award – Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Dylan Cease.
For my money, I can’t bet against the fine wine that is Verlander. The dude just keeps getting it done year after year, no matter how old he is or how badly he gets injured. He’s been dominant at the head of a terrifying Astros rotation that ALSO includes Valdez. His 1.78 ERA leads all of baseball and would be a personal low mark for his career. Add in a career-best FIP at 2.64, the second-best WHIP of all his major league years at 0.834, just behind his 2019 Cy Young campaign, and it shows that, by all measures, he’s been phenomenal. As if he wasn’t great enough, he also nearly cut his home run rate in half, managing only 0.7 long balls per nine innings.
It’s hard to argue with what Verlander has done. He’s 39, and he’s still keeping up with the kids. This award is more than likely his barring a late collapse and a surge from the other two.
NL Cy Young Award: Sandy Alcantara
I landed on Corbin Burnes in my previous rankings thanks to his past few breakout seasons. The Brewers ace has launched himself into superstardom, and with his Cy Young-winning year last year, he really cemented himself as the best pitcher not named Jacob deGrom. For the most part, he’s been brilliant again this year too. He has a 3.12 ERA to go with a 3.30 FIP and 0.998 WHIP, all of which is fantastic. The strikeout rate has taken a bit of a dip to 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but it’s neither here nor there. He’s been great, just not as dominant as last year.
With that void opened, in steps Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins. His stock has been on the rise for some time, though he’s been slightly overlooked in Miami. Last year, he posted a stellar 3.13 ERA, yet he completely lacked Cy Young votes or even an All-Star nod. This year, however, he will not be forgotten. In a league-leading 212.2 innings, he’s posted a 2.37 ERA with 3.03 FIP and 1.011 WHIP. Where Verlander’s performed a bit better, Alcantara has been one of the most durable arms in the league all year. He’s only been a merely good pitcher through the second half (3.51 ERA compared to 1.76 in the first half), but he’s still shown enough to earn the award.
It’s time to recognize that Alcantara is a burgeoning ace in this league. With the other arms in the Marlins rotation, he carries one of the more formidable pitching staffs in all of baseball.
AL MVP: Aaron Judge
I’ll take this one as a win, even if I didn’t get it right. In any other year, Shohei Ohtani would be the MVP. Following his historic 2021 season, he’s arguably playing even better this year and has firmly entrenched himself as one of baseball’s best players. He’s racked up a stellar 8.9 WAR with a 149 OPS+, which lands him squarely in the top five in the AL in offense. What’s been crucial to his success this year, though, are pitching improvements. His 2.43 ERA would land him fourth in the AL, right behind Shane McClanahan, while his 2.44 FIP would put him second, only behind Kevin Gausman. You get a top-five hitter and a Cy Young caliber pitcher in one. That’s simply unfair and definitely worth of an MVP award.
And yet, despite his success, he, like the rest of MLB, will have to tell it to the Judge. There’s simply no argument anymore that the Yankees slugger is the MVP. He put the kibosh on those arguments when he decided to make a push for the AL Triple Crown AND challenge Maris’s AL home run record. And he’s likely to get both with how otherworldly he’s been in September. In 17 games this month, he’s hit a truly mindboggling .476/.575/1.016 with nine bombs. On the year, he holds a 215 OPS+ in a truly Bondsian performance.
The best part? He’s actually getting better. In his first half, he hit for a mere .284/.364/.619 slash line. Those are baby numbers. His second half featured a line of .374/.508/.856. This isn’t just an award-worthy season. It’s an all-time great offensive campaign. Enjoy it while it lasts, folks.
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
Oddly enough, this was one of my most confident predictions and, easily, my most wildly incorrect. Juan Soto seemed like a safe bet for MVP. Given the Ted Williams-like numbers he’s been throwing up the past several years, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he’d take home the award one day. Yet, the performance simply hasn’t been there this year. Don’t get me wrong: a 5.2 WAR and 149 OPS+ is still fantastic, but there’s still something off. Since arriving in San Diego, it’s as if he’s suffered a power outage with a .372 SLG and only four home runs in 40 games. I still think he’ll win an MVP one day, and I still think he’s a superstar, but he hasn’t put it all together like years past.
Paul Goldschmidt, however, has been a juggernaut this year. I wrote a whole piece on the chances of him winning a Triple Crown, and while that’s still in play, he doesn’t need it to win the MVP. He’s been brilliant all year long for the Cardinals in a career-best effort. His 186 OPS+ beats out his next best season by a whopping 18 points. While he no longer holds the lead in any of the Triple Crown categories, he’s still within striking distance, assuming he makes one final push too. Like Judge, he’s done this all by being remarkably consistent. In only two months has his OPS been below .800, and in only three, was it below 1.000.
Overall, Goldy is having a monster season that should nab him the award. Perhaps it’s also the last piece for his Hall of Fame case.
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