J.D. Martinez was one of the best free-agent signings the Boston Red Sox have made in a long time. By far the best contract Dave Dombrowski handed out.
Martinez ranks first on the Red Sox in home runs; second in RBI, SLG, and OPS; third in doubles, AVG, wOBA, and wRC+; and fourth in OBP since 2018 (minimum 350 PA).
The 35-year-old designated hitter has been one of the game’s best hitters in that time. His uncharacteristic 2022 season dropped him down the leaderboards, but he’s still among the top hitters.
That said, however, it is in the best interest of the Boston Red Sox not to re-sign J.D. Martinez.
Re-signing Martinez to a short-term deal might be worth it for the Red Sox, but there are some signs he’s declining.
The Red Sox have too much to do and more significant weaknesses to address this winter than DH.
To field a playoff-caliber team in 2023, spending $15-$20 million on one player (aging and possibly declining) isn’t the best use of the Red Sox’ resources, not with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers (both due raises), and Trevor Story around.
(Chaim Bloom isn’t here to repeat Dombrowski’s mistakes.)
The bottom line, it’s all about building a playoff team for next season and beyond.
2022 Was a Weird One for Boston Red Sox’ J.D. Martinez
Throw out 2020. That “season” was so meaningless for everyone involved that it’s not worth mentioning.
J.D. Martinez “bounced back” in 2021 for the Boston Red Sox, hitting .286/.349/.518/.867 with 28 home runs, 99 RBI, a 128 OPS+ (his lowest non-2020 OPS+ since 2013), and an American League-leading 42 doubles.
Martinez hit .336/.400/.581/.981 with nine home runs and 75 RBI with runners in scoring position, and .349/.438/.762/1.200 with seven home runs and 37 RBI with two-outs and RISP.
He hit .333/.395/.606/1.001 with seven home runs and 44 RBI in high-leverage situations.
Everything that dipped in 2020 got better in 2021.
Then came 2022.
J.D. hit .349/.418/.567/.985 with eight home runs and 28 RBI (244 PA) through June 17. His strikeout rate was 23 percent, and his walk rate was 10 percent.
It was downhill from there.
Since June 17, he hit .224/.287/.366/.654 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, an 80 wRC+, a 25 percent strikeout rate, and an eight percent walk rate (356 PA). Five of his final eight home runs came during September.
J.D. Martinez’s final slash line for the Boston Red Sox: .274/.341/.448/.790 with 16 HR, 62 RBI, a 117 OPS+, and a career-high 43 doubles.
J.D. Martinez was a big part of the 2022 Boston Red Sox’ failures with RISP.
Last season, J.D. hit .218/.306/.353/.695 with four home runs and 46 RBI with RISP, and .167/.236/.303/.539 with two home runs and 14 RBI with two-outs and RISP.
Martinez hit .216/.258/.362/.620 with three home runs and 26 RBI in high-leverage situations.
That is not going to get it done.
Was J.D. Martinez playing hurt? Is he declining?
What’s the Deal With J.D. Martinez?
Yes, J.D. Martinez is still an above-average hitter. Is he that impact bat that the Boston Red Sox signed to a five-year, $110 million contract prior to the 2018 season?
There are some concerning signs that say he is not.
For one, his walk rates are going down, and his strikeout rates are going up.
The Miami, Florida, native’s 24 percent strikeout rate in both 2021 and 2022 is his highest rate since 2017 (26 percent), and his nine percent walk rate in those seasons is his lowest with the Red Sox.
Secondly, Martinez’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are back to 2020 levels; his expected OBP has dropped off drastically in the last two full seasons, and his expected SLG has gradually declined since 2018.
J.D. Martinez is walking less, striking out more, and slugging less in every season of his contract with the Boston Red Sox despite his chase rates, whiff rates, and barrel rates not changing all that much.
Thankfully, it is the responsibility of the Boston Red Sox to determine what is going on with J.D. Martinez.
The Sox will have upwards of $85 million to spend this winter.
Boston needs a near-total bullpen rebuild, a legit starter or two, an outfielder/DH, first baseman/DH, possibly a shortstop, and a catcher.
It is not unlikely that the Sox will shake up the roster some while also adding to areas of need.
My guess? The days of having David Ortiz and J.D. Martinez at the DH spot are over (for now).
Spending $15-$20 million on a one-dimensional 35-year-old DH with back problems who also might be in decline, when so much about the 2023 Red Sox roster is in flux, is not wise.
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