Five Bold Predictions for the 2023 Red Sox

As we tick closer to opening day, Red Sox fans have been split on what to expect this coming season. After watching star shortstop Xander Bogaerts walk out the door, fans were not happy. Since then, we have watched Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom fill out the Red Sox roster in a variety of different ways. The front office has shown a focus on improving the bullpen and finding positional players who produce quality at-bats and put the ball in play.

The loss of Bogaerts stings, but there’s also a lot to be optimistic about. The emergence of SP Brayan Bello and 1B Tristan Casas are major keys to the Red Sox getting back to the playoffs. But what should we expect from this ball club heading into 2023? Let’s walk through five bold predictions for the 2023 Boston Red Sox.

Chris Sale Leads the Team in Wins

Let’s start with a bang. Yes, Chris Sale has been the definition of unreliable for years now. But I’m predicting that he not only says healthy (at least mostly), but he performs well for the Red Sox. Sale was one of the best pitchers in baseball for many years. Though it’s tough to expect him to get completely back to what he once was, Sale is as determined as ever to redeem himself and start to live up to his massive contract.

Prediction: 172 IP, 15-6, 3.52 ERA

Masataka Yoshida Wins AL Rookie of the Year

Honestly, I don’t think this should be a “bold” prediction, but to many, it probably will be. Masataka Yoshida comes into the MLB with a lot more experience than the average rookie. In 2022, Yoshida hit .336 with 21 HRs and 89 RBIs for the Orix Buffaloes of the Japan Western League. Now at 29 years old, Yoshida is making the jump to the MLB as one of the most seasoned and accomplished hitters in Japan. Known for high-quality at-bats, a low strikeout rate, and a high walk rate, Yoshida is well-equipped to make the transition to major league pitching. He’ll have some major competition for the award, including from teammate Tristan Casas, but I believe Yoshida takes it home.

Prediction: .301 BA, 18 HRs, 72 RBIs

4 minutes and 45 seconds of Masataka Yoshida hitting homers last season. ? pic.twitter.com/rbGKLjjipo

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) December 25, 2022

Alex Verdugo Will NOT Finish the Season as a Boston Red Sox

This might be the boldest of all these takes. After playing through a broken toe to start 2022, Alex Verdugo finished the year strong. Truthfully, I expect a good year from Verdugo. That being said, the Red Sox could look to move in another direction. Three factors lead to this prediction.

1. If Trevor Story returns mid-season, that would create a log jam in the middle infield and also outfield with Kikè Hernandez’s versatility
2. The development of prospects could factor into the major league roster. Prospects like Ceddane Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez & Wilyer Abreu could all play a factor on the major league roster later in the season.
3. Considering both factors above, and the possibility the Red Sox could need to use a major league player to get a different major league player at the deadline. Let’s say a high-quality starting pitcher. Verdugo will likely be one of the most movable pieces on the 40-man roster.

Brayan Bello Leads Red Sox Starting Pitchers in ERA

When Brayan Bello broke into the major league in July of 2022, it wasn’t because the Red Sox felt like he was ready. The major league pitching staff was decimated by injuries and the Red Sox were forced to promote multiple prospects to fill in. Bello started the year in AA Portland and after just seven starts into the season, he was promoted to AAA Worcester.

The likely game plan for Red Sox management, was for Bello to spend most or all of the remaining season with AAA. Though with a series of major injuries to the major league staff, Bello was brought up to make his debut. Despite early struggles, the Red Sox decided to keep Bello in the majors. In his final six starts of the season, he produced a 2.59 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 31.1 innings pitched.

Bello features a high 90s fastball and a devastating sinker that he’s not afraid to throw at a high rate. In addition, Bello brings a changeup, slider, and a “new edition” curveball that he is said to be working on with Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez this offseason. Bello is positioned for a breakout season in his first full year in the majors.

Prediction: 181 IP, 13-7, 3.47 ERA

Last season 309 MLB pitchers had 150+ batted balls against them.

Brayan Bello ranked 1st/309 with 16.8% (31 of 184) of his batted balls allowed being classified as poorly hit base hits.

Second-highest pitcher was 14.5%
Red Sox average was 8.8%
MLB average was 8% pic.twitter.com/OkmyWf2O7z

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) January 26, 2023

The 2023 Boston Red Sox Win 88 Games

The current 2023 Boston Red Sox roster is better than last year’s opening-day roster. Going into 2022, the expectations were high but it didn’t take long for things to fall apart. Multiple players underperformed and injuries throughout the roster derailed the season. This 2023 team is improved, deeper, and primed for an improved record from 2022. Most specifically, after blowing 28 saves in 2022, the 2023 bullpen is primed to be much improved after a series of major additions.

It should be said, there is a wide range of what to realistically expect from this team. Players like Tristan Casas, Brayan Bello, and Masataka Yoshida bring a level of unknown to the roster. Will Chris Sale stay healthy? How will Garrett Whitlock perform as a full-time starter? I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the 2023 Red Sox ended up a sub-.500 team. Expectations among fans are low, but the optimist in me believes the Red Sox will surprise people this year.

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